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Chain Letters?

i hate them

Chain letters are letters which promise a phenomenal return on a small effort. The simplest form of a chain letter contains a list of x people. You are supposed to send something to the top person on the list. Then you remove the top person on the list, sliding the second person into the top position, add yourself in the bottom position, make y copies of the letter, and mail them to your friends. The promise is that you will eventually receive y**x somethings in return.

Could Work?

nope

The reason people are even tempted by these schemes is that the human mind does not have an intuitive view of geometrical progressions. Suppose we presume the chain letter to have a list of five people. You are asked to send one postcard to the person on top of the list, and remail the letter to five friends. You are promised thousands of postcards from all over the world if everyone participates. Your cost: a postcard, five photocopies and envelopes, and six stamps. Not much to risk to see what comes back...

Why They Can't

i knew they couldn't

Now let's assume that everyone on the list is honest and just perpetuating the "chain." (After all, these letters do emhpasize being HONEST.) Then if everyone on the list has made five copies, you are one of 5**5 or 3,125 people receiving copies in your "generation" of the letter. So far, the numbers don't seem outlandish. And looking the other way, you stand to get postcards from 3125 people. That doesn't seem impossible either. But view it as the "chain" you're in the middle of, and there will be 5**11 or 48,828,125 people receiving copies in that generation of the letter. If distribution were confined to the United States, there wouldn't be enough people left who hadn't already received a copy for the next generation.

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