There are those who believe that 20,000 activists will not move to Wyoming, for whatever reason. Some think that 20,000 will not be able to find jobs there, while others believe that so many people prefer the big city lifestyle that they would find Wyoming too boring.
Wyoming actually has sufficient potential to draw 20,000; however, it should be noted that less than 10,000 in Wyoming would be the equivalent of 20,000 in higher population states like Idaho, Maine, and New Hampshire. This is because Jason Sorens' original research called for 20,000 activists to tackle the prospect of liberty in our lifetime in a state of 1.2 million people. That amounts to a ratio of 1 FSP activist to every 62 residents. However, all things are not equal for our candidate states. The following is a list of candidate states followed by how many activists would be needed to achieve a 1 to 62 activist to resident ratio (based on 2005 Census population projections):
State - Estimated 2005 Population - Activists Needed for 1 to 62
Wyoming - 568,000 (9,161)
Vermont - 638,000 (10,290)
North Dakota - 677,000 (10,919)
Alaska - 700,000 (11,290)
Delaware - 800,000 (12,903)
South Dakota - 810,000 (13,065)
Montana - 1,006,000 (16,226)
New Hampshire - 1,281,000 (20,661)
Maine - 1,285,000 (20,726)
Idaho - 1,480,000 (23,871)
The number 20,000 is meaningless without the 1 to 62 ratio upon which it was based, and the simple fact is that Wyoming requires far less than 20,000 to meet that ratio. Ideally, we would want as many as possible; however, the more activists a state needs, the greater the hurdle to our success there. For those states that require the full 20,000, each and every activist will have to function at their full potential for us to be successful. Yet, in Wyoming, every activist above the 9,161 figure represents a surplus of potential for us, an "embarassement of riches," as Paul Bonneau is fond of saying.
Also, consider the fact that any short falls in participation would harm the FSP to a much larger extent in higher population states than in Wyoming. If 20,000 cannot be recruited, or if all 20,000 do not move, or if they do not prove to be as activist as necessary, the FSP's success could be greatly jeopardized. Wyoming lessens these risks for us because fewer activists are needed there to begin with.
Given these factors, it is not Wyoming that must prove that it can muster 20,000. The higher population states must do so because those states are where the 20,000 will be essential.
3. Wyoming does not have enough jobs for the FSP.
Extensive discussion of this issue, complete with statistical anaylsis, can be found in the following two reports:
The Jobs Question by Keith Carlsen
Wyoming Report # 2 by Keith Carlsen
4. The federal government owns too much land in Wyoming. This means that it will be able to control the free state more than if the FSP were to locate in a state where the government owns less land.
First, let's see the facts:
The following is a listing of how much land in each FSP candidate state is NOT owned by federal or state government (thanks to Joe Swyers for this research). The first number is the amount of "free" land in the state. The second number is the amount of land owned by federal and/or state government. The last number is how much total land there is in the state. (all in square miles).
91,010 Montana (54,545 of 145,556)
69,186 South Dakota (6,712 of 75,898)
62,684 North Dakota (6,310 of 68,994)
42,782 Wyoming (54,323 of 97,105)
29,103 Maine (1,762 of 30,865)
24,520 Idaho (58,231 of 82,751)
23,770 Alaska (546,605 of 570,374)
7,791 Vermont (1,458 of 9,249)
7,360 New Hampshire (1,609 of 8,969)
1,812 Delaware (143 of 1,955)
Even considering federal and state owned land, Wyoming still has an enormous amount of "free" land. In fact, the total "free" land in Wyoming is nearly five times the size of the entire State of New Hampshire, and twice the amount of free land in much larger Alaska!
Wyoming has quite a lot of available land!