The honorable Zbigniew Brzezinski
"Azerbaijan: A Geopolitical Factor in the Region"
US-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce annual conference
Washington DC
10/26/99
What is America's interest in Azerbaijan's independence?
1 - Azerbaijan contributes to diversification of energy sources. By
virtue of where it is situated and what it is, Azerbaijan contributes to
the well-being of the world.
2 - This contributes to Russian awareness that its not a zero sum game.
Often there is the perception that Russia suffers when others benefit.
Azerbaijan is changing this mentality in the Russian Federation. The
prosperity of the region is in Russia's interest.
3 - Azerbaijan has a strategic location that provides access to Central
Asia. The loss of Azerbaijani independence would cut off access to this
strategic region.
4 - Azerbaijan prevents the transformation of the CIS into an agency for
the reintroduction of central imperial powers. GUUAM is instrumental in
this capacity.
By independence, we also have in mind access to Azerbaijan. The two words
are interchangeable and interdependent. The Baku/Ceyhan pipeline is in
itself a recognition of the interdependence of independence and access.
Some potential dangers to Azerbaijani independence, which originate out
of ethnic conflict or imperial tendencies:
1. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
2. The limitations imposed by Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act
narrow US capacity to make policy in the region.
3. Imperial backlash most clearly evident in the Russo-Chechen war.
The Russo-Chechen war poses the possibility of genocide of an entire
people. We are witness to it now. The Chechen people numbered 1
million, now they number 600,000. Perhaps 50% of that number are
refugees. This is due to the indiscriminate bombing policy of the
Russian government.
The Russo-Chechen war has even broader consequences and ominous
implications
1. Domestic consequences in RF. It strengthens the worst elements of the
RF elite, those who believe that empire is destiny and are contemptuous
of democracy and human life.
2. For the region this means insecurity. In the first place refugees.
Georgian security is primarily effected but Azerbaijan is not
invulnerable.
We must reiterate our support for their independence. I and 29 others
have written a letter to the president to this effect.
There are things we could do for Azerbaijan, without threatening Armenia,
along the lines of what we have already done for Georgia. We need to do
this if we are serious about Azerbaijani independence.
In responce to a question from the audience:
Russia's present anti-Muslim policy can prove suicidal in the long run.
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