Explore anticipated changes and developments in science and technology, the nature of institutions, lifestyles, psychological insights, customs and traditions. Achieve a global picture of the future with accumulated facts, visions, dreams, imagination, fantasy, creativity.
Week 1 - Orientation, introduction Week 2 - Future in Past and Present, Globalization, What is Progress? Week 3 - 1990s Global Boom Teich 1,2,3,11, Seven Revolutions Week 4 - Teich 4, 9, Plato Week 5 - Basic Forecasting Theory of Change, Long Cycles, Kant, Civil Society Week 6 - Privatization of the Welfare State "Prospects" Discussion and Paper due - Quiz Teich (Catch Up) 12, 19, 21, 24, 26 Week 7 - Emergence of Free Market Socialism Marx, Nation State / Privatization Week 8 - Review, Midterm / Future of Welfare, Warfare State Week 9 - Terror of Tomorrow, Teich 8, 22, Skinner Week 10 - Spring Break Week 11 - Obstacles to Forecasting Teich 5, 10, Rival Theories / Conclusions Week 12 - Global Lifestyles and Cultural Nationalism The Bible / Hinduism Teich 24, 25 / Naisbet and Toffler Week 13 - Rise of the Pacific Rim Second Thought Paper due / Confucius Teich 16, 17 Week 14 - Triumph of the Individual, Sartre, Teich 13, 23 Week 15 - Age of Biology Freud / Lorenz, Teich 6, 7, 12, 15, 18, 20 Week 16 - Renaissance of the Arts, Semester Review, Final
7 Revolutions in our time: 1) Technology 2) Gender Relations 3) Race Relations 4) End of Geopolitical Warfare 5) Advent of Global Economy 6) Age of Communication 7) Copernican Revolution of human relations
What was the basis for Plato's fears of democracy and oligarchy?
On what did he base his Philosopher King theory?
Compare Sophists with Post Modernists
What kind of understanding is necessary for human goodness?
How does social order create individual problems / solutions?
Discuss aristocracy, oligarchy, democracy, tyranny
What is Plato's case for justice? Education? Duty?
In light of this what was the basis for JFK's statement "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country"?
Comment on technopoly's impact on education, family, state, religion, Marxism or other isms
Comment on how bureaucracy, experts, and technical machinery and jargon create a society of disinformation
How has technocracy applied cost benefit analysis to the value of life?
How does technocracy contribute to acceptable and calculated risks in life?
How do knowledge institutions reduce uncertainties? Does this really make life safer?
Theory of change / Creation
Linear - Periodic - a) Cyclical - b) Seasonal - Random
Name some fallacies to market surveys (e g MegaTrends)
Name some fallacies to wave theory (e g Toffler)
Name some fallacies to leading edge (e g Rostow)
Compare Fulton's Folly with Steve Wozniack's PC
How do trends, fads and fashion make predictions fickle?
Compare venture capital with institutional investing
Compare breakthroughs with planned obsolescence
How does media affect market forecasts and analysis?
Discuss the Internet stock bubble
Discuss the Return of Reason (the Second Enlightenment)
Have we become servomechanisms to our environment? Were we always?
Does man make machine or machine make man?
Did America's pioneers foreshadow a nation of Builders?
What are the distinguishing characteristics of a technological nation?
Compare the U S with Carthage. Who would be Rome?
What value-laden social concepts dictate the nature of technocracy?
Made in America? How has society developed since the birth of the military-industrial complex? Is that good?
Name Stevenson's Rival theories and how they compare
How does civil society threaten the modern nation-state?
How do non-government agencies threaten to replace representative democracy?
How would civil society create new ethics of responsibility?
How does Kant reflect the Age of Reason?
How does Kant reconcile free will with universal and scientific determinism?
What is the central thesis of Kant's agency theory? How does it affect governing society?
How does Kant's attitude toward evil affect his absolute emphasis on responsibility?
Define self love. How does it affect morality and salvation?
Are people genetically determined in the Kantian sense or products of their environment?
How will genetic selection affect Darwin's theory of natural selection?
How did automation facilitate 2-wage earner households?
Is drudgery a factor in discussing Progress?
How does Marx draw on his philosophical underpinnings of Hegel?
How do Marx's major works outline his critique?
How does the economy determine the nature of society?
Is it possible to refute the author's rejection of determinism? How?
What is Marx's use and definition of history?
Explain what Marx means by alienation.
Was Marx Utopian? Why or why not?
How do perceptions affect African American reception of technology?
Why are minorities, particularly African Americans, at a disadvantage due to advance of technology? How do demographic shifts reflect this?
How have cars, phones, TVs and computers revolutionized society? Can you foresee similar changes in the next century? Explain.
On what authority do we assert gene splicing does not threaten humans or ecosystems?
What influence does genetic engineering have on discrimination and prejudice?
Does saving time save effort? Explain.
With the advent of automated homes has technocracy lessened work or is it just different? How?
How does your prescription for 2100 compare with the article "Packing Tips For Your Trip"?
Given arguments for limits, status quo and change in "Prospects" what is your prescription for 21st century crisis management?
In absence of discussion thus far of religion, will technology become the new faith?
Ten Theories on Human Nature, Stevenson (Oxford University Press)
Teich, Technology and the Future (St Martin Press)
Supplement: Prospects for a New World Order, Fitzgerald (Reserve, Mammoth Lakes Library)
Suggested readings
The close of the 1900s saw final showdowns between superpowers, marking Western History since the Copernican Revolution and discovery of the New World. Global revolutions transform the world remaking ideological contexts and human existence: nonviolence, monopoly capitalism, and participatory democracy in new social orders inconceivable at the births of the democratic experiment in America, England and France. We'll look back on the last 50 years in western thought or action to project into the next century. Nothing will be considered irrelevant. Everything will be up for discussing society and the future. Our fate and world fate will be our topics. What is the real concern with global warming? Can capitalism cope with population and production tradeoffs? Does history repeat itself? When? Are we prepared for struggle when Western culture wars are duplicated globally? What are the stakes and risks if we fail?We'll discuss forms of social organization and the impact technology and culture have on each. Was Marx right when he said modes of production determine the nature of society? How do we control modes of production? We'll consider spatial relations and a new concept of the western view toward the time / space continuum, perhaps refighting World War II to appraise feasibility of interstellar travel in what form and what this means for Western thought and world peace. We'll ask if tyranny and oppression are ended or if we merely deposed one form of political dictatorship for even more limiting economic dictatorship. Is the Internet the final liberator or the jailer in disguise? We'll examine how our lives will change in the next 50 years and how we know what to anticipate and disregard. We'll reappraise the significance of cherished western values of nationalism, sovereignty and individual rights on the eve of government by trade law and international treaty. We'll discuss these Prospects for a New World Order and what the Universe will look like to our children as we gaze into the crystal ball of future forecasts and social engineering to perceive options and opportunities as they may effect our own lives and the lives of our contemporaries in community, nation and world.
20% Midterm - essay and multiple choice
20% Paper 1: Report on a book from the suggested readings list. Dialogue with the author.
20% Paper 2: Report on the supplementary text: Develop and discuss a theme in the book from your own perspective. Defend your views. Papers 3 - 5 pages typed
20% Final - at least 2/3 essay remainder multiple choice (one essay comprehensive)
20% Participation, Attendance, Quizzes scheduled and pop. Bring outside materials to class as often as you like. Quizzes will provide sample thought problems.
You're an integral part of the educational process. In class discussion all social science is on the table. Prepare to discuss required readings in class. Tardiness of over 5 minutes without acceptable excuse will be marked absent. See class schedule for attendance policy regarding excessive absence. As this class is weighted toward heavy reading, no term paper is required. If you don't understand the required reading see the instructor immediately. You're responsible for classroom and text content. If you must miss a class notify the instructor and get notes from a classmate. YOU WILL BE TESTED! Essay themes will come from class discussions and multiple choice for texts.
500 points averaged to these percents: 90 - 100 = A 80 - 89 = B 70 - 79 = C 60 - 69 = D Below 60 = F Extra credit will be considered before entering a final grade.