Obama leads Clinton in the Recorded Vote in Primary and Caucus states

Why Obama’s True Vote Exceeds the Recorded Vote

May 19, 2008

This analysis will show that Obama is winning the primaries by more than the recorded margin. But it is not unexpected: the progressive candidate always does better in the polls than in the vote count. Here is a major red flag: he does better in caucuses where votes are counted in full view than in the primaries where they are counted in secret. In Texas, Obama had a 47% share in the primary and 56% in the caucus.

Obama currently leads Clinton by 600,000 votes in the primaries (49.3-47.5%) and by 66-34% in caucuses.

If unadjusted exit polls (53.8-46.2%) reflect the true vote, he would be leading the primaries by 2.2 million votes.

And the 2.2m does not include his 2-1 advantage in caucus states.

Obama won the New Hampshire hand-counted precincts by 5.90% but lost the machine-counts by the same margin.

He won the final 10 NH pre-election polls by an average of 9%.

On Super Tuesday his exit poll share exceeded his vote share in 14 of 16 states (see table below).

Prior to March 4, when Operation Chaos began, Obama led by 50.1-45.7%. Since Mar.4, Clinton leads by 50.8-47.8%

The 2008 Primary and Caucus results just confirm the obvious:

When votes are counted in full view (as in caucuses) you can be confident that they will be counted accurately.

When ballots are hand-counted, you can be confident that they will be counted accurately.

When voters are exit-polled, you can be confident that the results will be close to the True Vote.

When ballots cannot be audited or there is no chain of custody or no hand-counted recount, you cannot be confident that the recorded vote is accurate.

Caucuses

* IA only reports apportioned number of delegates

Votes (000) Vote share

Caucus HRC Obama HRC Obama

Total 162.8 317.8 33.9% 66.1%

AK 0.1 0.3 25.4% 74.6%

CO 38.6 79.3 32.7% 67.3%

IA* 0.74 0.94 43.9% 56.1%

KS 9.5 27.2 25.8% 74.2%

ME 1.4 2.1 40.2% 59.8%

MN 68.4 141.5 32.6% 67.4%

ND 6.9 11.6 37.4% 62.6%

NV 5.4 4.8 52.9% 47.1%

TX 18.6 23.9 43.8% 56.2%

WA 10.0 21.6 31.6% 68.4%

WY 3.1 4.5 40.9% 59.1%

Amer Samoa 0.2 0.1 57.4% 42.6%

Popular Vote Count

Obama Clinton

Popular Vote Total 32,654,931 16,103,219 49.31% 15,506,754 47.49%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA 33,334,631 16,437,303 49.31% 15,730,616 47.19%

Popular Vote (w/FL) 34,398,723 16,679,433 48.49% 16,377,740 47.61%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 35,088,851 17,013,517 48.49% 16,601,602 47.31%

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI) 35,031,985 16,679,433 47.61% 16,706,049 47.69%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA 35,654,861 17,013,517 47.72% 16,929,911 47.48%

Montana 3-Jun - -

South Dakota 3-Jun - -

Puerto Rico 1-Jun - -

Kentucky 20-May - -

Oregon 20-May - -

West Virginia 13-May 350,670 90,258 25.7% 234,813 67.0%

North Carolina 6-May 1,574,429 883,508 56.1% 656,284 41.7%

Indiana 6-May 1,276,261 630,925 49.4% 645,336 50.6%

Guam 3-May 4,521 2,264 50.1% 2,257 49.9%

Pennsylvania 22-Apr 2,307,759 1,046,822 45.4% 1,260,937 54.6%

Mississippi 11-Mar 433,834 265,502 61.2% 159,221 36.7%

Wyoming 8-Mar 8,759 5,378 61.4% 3,311 37.8%

Texas 4-Mar 2,874,069 1,362,476 47.4% 1,462,734 50.9%

Ohio 4-Mar 2,355,431 1,055,769 44.8% 1,259,620 53.5%

Rhode Island 4-Mar 186,503 75,316 40.4% 108,949 58.4%

Vermont 4-Mar 154,961 91,901 59.3% 59,806 38.6%

Pre-March 4

Wisconsin 19-Feb 1,113,049 646,851 58.1% 453,954 40.8%

Hawaii 19-Feb 37,257 28,347 76.1% 8,835 23.7%

Virginia 12-Feb 985,470 627,820 63.7% 349,766 35.5%

Maryland 12-Feb 877,592 532,665 60.7% 314,211 35.8%

Dist of Columbia 12-Feb 123,972 93,386 75.3% 29,470 23.8%

Democrats Abroad 12-Feb 23,108 15,214 65.8% 7,501 32.5%

Louisiana 9-Feb 384,470 220,632 57.4% 136,925 35.6%

Nebraska 9-Feb 38,571 26,126 67.7% 12,445 32.3%

Virgin Islands 9-Feb 1,970 1,772 89.9% 149 7.6%

California 5-Feb 5,063,195 2,186,662 43.2% 2,608,184 51.5%

New York 5-Feb 1,862,349 751,019 40.3% 1,068,496 57.4%

Illinois 5-Feb 2,037,091 1,318,234 64.7% 667,930 32.8%

New Jersey 5-Feb 1,141,118 501,372 43.9% 613,500 53.8%

Massachusetts 5-Feb 1,245,512 511,680 41.1% 705,185 56.6%

Georgia 5-Feb 1,060,793 704,247 66.4% 330,026 31.1%

Minnesota 5-Feb 214,100 142,109 66.4% 68,994 32.2%

Missouri 5-Feb 825,208 406,917 49.3% 395,185 47.9%

Tennessee 5-Feb 624,729 252,874 40.5% 336,245 53.8%

Colorado 5-Feb 120,397 80,113 66.5% 38,839 32.3%

Arizona 5-Feb 455,417 193,126 42.4% 229,501 50.4%

Alabama 5-Feb 536,279 300,319 56.0% 223,089 41.6%

Connecticut 5-Feb 355,477 179,742 50.6% 165,426 46.5%

Arkansas 5-Feb 313,913 82,476 26.3% 220,136 70.1%

Oklahoma 5-Feb 416,988 130,130 31.2% 228,480 54.8%

Kansas 5-Feb 36,707 27,172 74.0% 9,462 25.8%

New Mexico 5-Feb 148,817 71,396 48.0% 73,105 49.1%

Utah 5-Feb 131,389 74,538 56.7% 51,333 39.1%

Delaware 5-Feb 96,340 51,148 53.1% 40,760 42.3%

North Dakota 5-Feb 19,030 11,625 61.1% 6,948 36.5%

Idaho 5-Feb 21,236 16,880 79.5% 3,655 17.2%

Alaska 5-Feb 8,877 6,674 75.2% 2,194 24.7%

American Samoa 5-Feb 285 121 42.5% 163 57.2%

South Carolina 26-Jan 532,220 294,898 55.4% 140,990 26.5%

New Hampshire 8-Jan 285,064 104,815 36.8% 112,404 39.4%

Total Pre_Mar 4 21,137,987 10,593,100 50.11% 9,653,486 45.67%

Total Post_Mar 4 11,527,198 5,510,119 47.80% 5,853,268 50.78%

Grand Total 32,665,185 16,103,219 49.30% 15,506,754 47.47%

Super Tuesday 5-Feb 16,735,246 8,000,574 47.81% 8,086,836 48.32%

Exit Poll vs. Recorded Vote (21 Primaries)

Obama has an average 50.4-45.8% lead (4.6% margin) in the exit polls.

Clinton has an average 48.4-47.1% lead (1.3% margin) in the recorded vote.

The discrepancy in margin from exit poll to the vote is 5.8%.

The exit poll-to-vote shift was in favor of Clinton in 18 of the 21 states.

The 2.5% Exit Poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 18 states.

The margin discrepancy exceeded 13% in 5 states.

The probability that all of these discrepancies would be due to chance is as close to zero as you can get.

Recorded Exit Poll

Obama Clinton Obama Clinton WPD

Total 49.3% 47.5% 53.8% 46.2% -5.8%

Average 47.1% 48.4% 50.4% 45.8% -5.9%

Pennsylvania 22-Apr 45.3% 54.7% 52.0% 47.0% -14.4%

Mississippi 11-Mar 60.8% 37.0% 58.6% 40.6% +5.8%

Texas 4-Mar 47.4% 50.9% 49.0% 50.0% -2.5%

Ohio 4-Mar 44.8% 55.2% 48.0% 51.0% -7.4%

California 5-Feb 43.0% 51.6% 46.3% 49.6% -5.3%

New York 5-Feb 40.3% 57.4% 42.2% 55.6% -3.7%

Illinois 5-Feb 64.7% 32.8% 69.6% 29.1% -8.6%

New Jersey 5-Feb 44.0% 53.9% 52.2% 47.0% -15.1%

Massachusetts 5-Feb 41.1% 56.6% 49.8% 47.3% -18.0%

Georgia 5-Feb 66.4% 31.1% 74.5% 25.5% -13.7%

Missouri 5-Feb 49.3% 47.9% 49.8% 45.1% -3.3%

Tennessee 5-Feb 40.4% 53.9% 41.1% 51.6% -3.0%

Arizona 5-Feb 42.4% 50.4% 50.5% 44.8% -13.7%

Alabama 5-Feb 56.0% 41.6% 59.6% 37.0% -8.2%

Connecticut 5-Feb 50.6% 46.6% 52.2% 45.0% -3.2%

Arkansas 5-Feb 26.3% 70.1% 25.5% 71.2% +1.9%

Oklahoma 5-Feb 31.2% 54.8% 30.4% 60.5% +6.5%

New Mexico 5-Feb 48.0% 49.1% 51.8% 45.6% -7.3%

Utah 5-Feb 56.6% 39.2% 60.1% 39.9% -2.8%

Delaware 5-Feb 53.2% 42.1% 55.6% 41.9% -2.6%

New Hampshire 8-Jan 36.8% 39.4% 39.0% 36.0% -5.6%