STEPS IN
SCIENCE
1. Why Science
The question 'Why
solve problems?' is psychological. It is as necessary for some of us as
breathing. Why scientific problems, not theology, or literary effort or
some form of artistic expression? Many practising
scientists never work to answer out consciously. A few centuries ago,
questions of religious philosophy and theology ruled supreme for the
intelligentsia of many countries. Those lands where the leading
intellectuals persisted in these speculations remained ignorant, backward
and were progressively enslaved (like India) in spite of a millennial
culture. No advance was possible out of this decay without a modern
technique of production, towards which the intellectual's main contribution
was through science. There is a deeper relationship: science is the
cognition of necessity; freedom is the recognition of necessity, Science is
also the history of science. What is essential is absorbed into the general
body of human knowledge to become technique. No scientist doubts Newton's towering achievement:
virtually no scientist ever reads Newton's original writings. A good
undergraduate commands decidedly more physics and mathematics than was
known to Newton but which could not have
developed without Newton's researches. This
cumulative effect links science to the technology of mechanised
production (where machines save immense labour by
accumulating previous labour) to give science its
matchless social power, in contrast to art and literature with their direct
personal appeal. Archimedes, Newton, Gauss form a chain wherein each link
is connected in some way to the preceding; the discoveries of the later
would not have been possible without the earlier, Shakespeare does not
imply the pre-existence of Aeschylus or of Kalidasa;
each of these three has an independent status. For that very reason, drama
has advanced far less from the Greeks to the present day than has
mathematics or science in general. The earliest statues of Egypt and Greece, the first known Chinese
bronzes, show a technical mastery of the material and of art forms that
make them masterpieces even now, though the artists remain unknown; but the technique is not linked to production as such, hence not
cumulative. The artist therefore survives if and only if his name
remains attached to some work that people of later ages can appreciate. The
scientist, even when his name be forgotten, has
only to make some original contribution, however small, to be able to say
with more truth than the poet, 'I shall not wholly die,' the greater part
of me will escape Libitina. The most bitter theological questions were argued out with
the sword; for science, we have the pragmatic well-paid pseudo-scienist wishes to 'experiment' with thermo-nuclear
weapons or bacterial warfare.
2. Natural
Philosophy
I went to school and
college in the USA. It was obligatory to learn
several European ianguages in school and college.
The libraries were unquestionably the best in the world for accessibility
and range of books. Alexander von Humboldt's Cosmos surveyed the
whole universe known to the nineteenth century, from the surface of the
earth to those mysterious prawn-shaped figures visible through the most
powerful telescopes, the spiral nebulae. The Einstein theory, arousing
passions of theological intensity, had just been regarded as proved, and offered new insight into the structure of
space and time. Innumerable outlines made it easy to learn something about
every branch of science. Freud had taught men to take an honest look at
their own minds: H. G. Wells showed through his Outline of History how
much the professional analistic historian had to
learn .The inspiring lives of Pasteur and Claude Bernard proved that man
could gain new freedom from disease through the laboratory; the deadliest
poison became a tool for the saving of life through investigation of the
body's functions. Such were the real rsis
and bodhisattvas of modern times, the sages whose social
achievement added to man's stature. This constrasted
with the supposed individual perfection of mythical Indian sages, expressed in incomprehensible language and
fantastically interpreted by commentators. It is fatally easy to preach
about the spiritual superiority of India to the materialistic West;
the ability to replace incomprehensible Sanskrit words by still longer and
equally meaningless English terms can make a prosperous career
.
Engineering is based
upon physics and chemistry, which are qualified as 'exact sciences'
precisely because they admitted a mathematical basis. No other discipline
unlocked the door to the atom or to the movement of celestial bodies
equally well, as mathematics did. Aptitude granted,
mathematical research needed the least financial resources of any science.
However, I chose mathematics because I could not resist its fascination.
Mathematical results possess a clarity and give an
intellectual satisfaction above any others. They have absolute validity in
their own domain, due to the rigorous logical process involved, independent
of experimental verification upon which applications to the exact sciences
must depend. Mathematics was the language of nature, scientiarum
clavis et porta as
Roger Bacon put it.
Unfortunately, not
every kind of mathematics unlocks every door tp
nature's secrets. For some twenty years, my main work lay in tensor analysis
and pathgeometry (my own term). Though
fundamental for the theory of relativity, the discipline is of interest
only to a few specialists. In 1949, Einstein pointed out to me during one
of several long and highly involved private technical discussions that
certain beautifully formulated theories of his would mean that the whole
universe consisted of no more than two charged particles. Then he added
with a rueful smile, 'Perhaps I have been working on the wrong lines, and
nature does not obey differential equations after all'. If a scientist of
his rank could face the possibility that his entire life-work might have to
be discarded, could I insist that the theorems whose inner beauty brought
me so much pleasure after heavy toil must be of profound significance in
natural philosophy? Fashions change quickly in physics where theory is so
rapidly outstripped by experiment. It seemed and still seems to me that
non-associative linear algebras and Markov chains would remove many of the
physicists' theoretical difficulties; the experimenters are satisfied with
abandoning the principle of parity. The 'red shift' of distant stars will
perhaps be explained one day as due to the absorption of energy when light
travels at cosmic distances through extremely tenuous matter, not as
evidence for an expanding universe. Such speculations are of no use unless
tallied in mathematical detail with observed data.
3. Chance and Certainity
Borderline phenomena
of classical physics illustrate inexhaustibility of the properties of
matter. Ice, according to the textbooks, melts and water freezes at zero
degrees centigrade. But when carefully purified samples of water are slowly
cooled and the ice slowly melted again, a considerable gap is found between
the melting and freezing points. Fundamental particles that make up the
atom and its nucleus show another type of aberrant behaviour.
An electron can cross a potential barrier, as if a stone were of itself to
roll uphill against gravity, and down, the other side. Even the observation
of isolated particles becomes difficult, for the very act of observation
means some interaction and effect upon the observable. The certainty of
classical physics comes only when many fundamental particles are organized
into higher units with clear patterns. In the same way, individual
molecules of water may move in any direction with almost any speed, but the
river as a whole shows directed motion in spite of eddies. So also for
aggregates of living matter. In human society, the net behaviour
of the group smooths out the vagaries of
individual action. The mathematical analysis best suited for handling such
aggregates is the theory of probability, the estimation of chances.
Variation is as important a characteristic of the collective as the mean
value. Prediction can only be made to within a certain probability, which
sounds like the language of the race course. But when the chances of a
mistake amount to one in a million, most people take the effect as certain.
The level of significance desired may be personal matter. For example,
there is a chance of a letter being lost in the mail; whether or not we
register or insure it depends upon our estimate of the risk involved, and
the expectation of loss. Thus, modern statistical method can be an
excellent guide to action. It extends the assurance of exact science to
biological and social sciences. Though no man can say when death will come
to him, as it certainly must to all men, it is fairly easy to predict
within a reasonable margin of error about how many men out of a large group
will die after a set number of years. That is why life insurance manages to
be a highly paying business, without recourse to astrology. It is further
possible to say how the occupation and living conditions affect longevity.
The man who has to work in a lead mine (without special protection) has his
expectation of life reduced by a predictable number o,f
years, more surely than those shot at by lead bullets on the battlefield.
The method of proof for deductions based upon probability differ
radically from those of pure mathematics. Conclusions cannot be 'true or
false' without qualification, when the variation inherent in the trials is
assessed. The standard method is to set up a 'null hypothesis', take the
observed results as due to purely random independent variation. The theory
suitably applied (and the application needs profound grasp) then gives one
of two conclusions: that the numerical observations are compatible with the
hypothesis; or not. But either conclusion would be true only with a certain
calculable probability, which tells us about how often we would go wrong in
action. The trick is to set up the experiment in such a way that the
desired action may be taken if the null hypothesis is contradicted; for,
the incompatibility implies falsehood whereas compatibility need not imply
truth.
This leads to
difficulties in dealing with phenomena where the experimenter's will to
believe is stonger than his common sense.
Parapsychologists test ESP, 'extra-sensory perception' (such as
telepathy) by having two people match cards at a distance. The effect is so faint and irregular as to call for recondite
statistical tests, which apply on the null hypothesis that the matching
could have been obtained by mere chance. The tests then show that the
chances are very small, wherefore the parapsychologists claim victory. The
null-hypothesis is contradicted, but the reason given is not necessarily
true. Shuffling, the cards does not randomize them
efficiently, i.e. pure chance is not fully effective. There are excellent
statistical tests for such randomization, and it was shown by my own
experiments that the kind of shuffling practised
for ESP is inefficient when judged by the same kind of statistics
that is applied to card-matching. Cards originally next to each other tend
too often to stick together. Claims for ESP would be more convincing
if one produced supplementary evidence (say matching encephalograms for
sender and receiver) for a physical mechanism of transmission. Some regard
the effect as beyond the normal sensation, transcendental, not accessible
to material analysis. In that case, there is no logic in any laboratory
tests; the statistical 'proof' becomes mere ritual. One of my theoretical
papers deals with probability and statistics in infinitely many dimensions.
There has been no effective use, because the attempts at getting a special
electronic calculating machine to translate this theory into practice
failed. No one with the requisite resources has yet felt the need. On the
other hand, a paper on genetics was unexpectedly successful. Professional
geneticists use it for all kinds of investigations, such as heredity in
house mice. It seems to have given a new lease of life to genetical theories which I, personally, should like to
see revised; so that I am accused at times of not appreciating my own
formula. It would have been pleasant to see the formula applied to the
increase of food production; but the pure scientist of a country which
grows the world's greatest food surpluses and destroys them to keep grain
prices high in a hungry world sneer at 'clever gardening'. There is some
difference of opinion here as regards the proper relations of theory to
practice.
4. Ancient Indian
Culture
To teach myself
statistics, I had to take up some practical problems from the very
beginning. One such was the study of examination marks of students. It
turned out that even the easiest of examinations in India (the first-year
college examination) was based on a standard that differed from that of the
instruction, if in twenty-five years no student of the 90% or more who
passed could score more than 82% overall while the professors who taught
and examined had scored much less in their own time. Improvement of the
system (whether in examination or instruction) was out of the question in a
country where the teaching profession is the waste-basket of all others,
and the medium of higher instruction is still a foreign language.
A more fruitful
problem was the statistical study of punch-marked coins. It turned out that
the apparently crude bits of 'shroff-marked'
silver coins were as carefully weighed as modern machine-minted rupees. The
effect of circulation on any metal currency is obviously to decrease the
average weight in proportion to the time and to increase the variation in
weight. The theory of this 'homogeneous random process' is well known, but
its applications need careful work on whole groups of coins.
Moreover, it is necessary that the history of the coins be closed in
antiquity, at one time; this means deposit in a well-preserved hoard. The
main groups of punch-marked coins in the larger Taxila
Hoard could be arranged in definite chronological order, the oldest groups
being the lightest in average weight. There seems to have been a fairly
regular system of checking the coins in antiquity. As control, I personally
weighed over 7,000 modern coins (taken from circulation) one by one, on
slow analytic balances. It was then possible to lay the foundations of
numismatics as a science, as contrasted to a branch of epigraphy and
archaeology. Taxilan economy of the period was
beautifully revealed by the coins though the coins bore no legends.
Arranging
coin-groups in order of time led naturally to the question: Who struck
these coins? The hoard was dated to about ten years after Alexander's
death. But who were the Indian kings, if any, who left the marks on the
coins? The written sources display a shocking discordance. The Puranas, Buddhist and lain records often give
different names for the same king. Study of the records meant some mastery
of Sanskrit, of which I had absorbed a little through the pores without
regular study. Other preoccupations made it impossible to spend as much
time as the average student on the classical idiom. So, the same method was
adopted as for study of statistics: to take up a specific work, of which
the simplest was Bhartihari's epigrams (Subhasitas). The supposed philosophy of Bhartihari, as glorified by the commentators, was at
variance with his poetry of frustration and escape. By pointing this out in
an essay which made every Sanskritist who read it
shudder, I had fallen into Indology, as it were,
through the roof.
There was one defect
in the essay, namely that the existence and the text of Bhartihari
were both rather uncertain. This meant text-criticism, which ought to have
been completed in a few months, as the entire work supposedly contains no
more than 300 stanzas. Study of about 400 manuscripts showed numerous
versions with characteristically different stanzas, as well as divergent
readings in the common verses. It took two and a half years of steady
collation work to realize that I should not have undertaken such a task;
but abandoning it then would mean complete loss of the heavy labour, which could yield nothing to whoever came after
me. It took some five years to edit Bhartihtri,
with results that have received professional approval. The methods did not
apply when the oldest known anthology of classical Sanskrit verse, composed
about 1000 A.D. under the Pala dynasty, was edited
(with a very able collaborator) from atrocious photographs of two
manuscripts, one in Tibet, and the other -most corrupt- in Nepal. My
judgment of the class character of Sanskrit literature has not become less
harsh, but I can at least claim to have rescued over fifty poets from the
total oblivion to which lovers of Sanskrit had consigned them, not to speak
of adding to our meagre knowledge of many others.
All this gave a
certain grasp of Sanskrit, but hardly of ancient Indian history; the necessary documents simply did not exist. My
countrymen eked out doubtful sources with a powerful imagination and what
L. Renou has called 'logique
imperturbable'. One reads of the revival of nationalism and Hinduism under Chandragupta II, of whom nothing is known with certainty.
Indian nationalism is a phenomenon of the bourgeois age, not to be imagined
before the development of provincial languages (long after the Guptas) under common markets. Our present-day clashes
between linguistic groups are an index to the development of local
bourgeoisie in the various states. Hinduism came into existence after the
Mohammedan invasion. Clearly, one of two positions had to be taken. India has no history at all, or
some better definition of history was needed. The latter I derived from the
study of Karl Marx, who himself expressed the former view. History is the
development in chronological order of successive changes in the means and
relations of production. This definition will have to be abandoned for a
better one if we cross the threshold to a radically new and better form of
society. Then and only then will human history really
begin, but till that time my definition will have to serve. We have,
therefore, an Indian history without the episodes that fill the history
books of other countries. But where were the relevant new sources? Granted
that the plough is more important than a list of kings, when and where was
it first introduced? What class took the surplus produced thereby?
Archaeology provided some data, but I could get a great deal more from the
peasants. Field work in philology and social anthropology had to be
combined with archaeology in the field as distinguished from the site
archaeology of a 'dig'. Our villagers, low-caste nomads and tribal
minorities live at a more primitive stage than the city people or even than
the brahmins who wrote the Puranas.
Their cults, when not masked by brahmin
identification with Sanskritized deities, go back
to pre-history, just as Romans at their sacrifices used stone axes and
bronze knives. Tracing a local god through village tradition gives a
priceless clue to ancient migrations, primitive tracks, early trade routes
and the merger of cattle-breeding tribesmen with food gatherers which led
to firm agricultural settlement. The technique of observation has to be
developed afresh for every province in India. The conclusions have had a
mixed reception because of reference to Marx, which automatically
classifies them as dangerous political agitation in the eyes of many. At
the same time official Marxists look with suspicion upon the work of an outsider .
The method continues
to give new and useful results. Experts say that my collection of microliths is unique, not only in range of sites but in
containing the first known pierced specimens. A totally unsuspected
megalithic culture came to light in this year's field work. It fell to my
lot to discover, read and publish a Brahmi
inscription in plain sight at Karle caves, which
had passed unnoticed though some 50,000 people visit the place every year.
My suggestion for using Malshet pass should give Maharashtra a badly needed key road from
Bombay to Ahmednagar,
and save a few million rupees that would have been wasted by a projected
spectacular funicular railway down Naneghat.
5. Social Aspects
The greatest
obstacles to research in any backward, underdeveloped country are often
those needlessly created by the scientist's or scholar's
fellow citizens. Grit may be essential in some difficult investigation, but
the paying commodity is soft soap. The meretricious ability to please the
right people, a convincing pose, masterly charlatanism and a clever press
agent are indispensable for success. The Byzantine emperor Nikephoros Phokas assured
himself fr ample notice from superficial
observers at someone else's expense, by setting up in his own name at a
strategic site in the Roman Forum, a column stolen from some grandiose
temple. Many of our eminent intellectuals have mastered this technique.
There is little
point in discussing personal experience of the scum that naturally floats
to the top in a stagnant class. The deep question is of fundamental
relationship between the great discoverers and their social environment.
Conservatives take history as the personal achievement of great men,
especially the history of science. The Marxist assertion is that the great
man is he who finds some way to fulfil a crying
social need of his times. Thus, B. Hessen
explained Newton's work in terms of the
technical and economic necessities of his class, time and place. The thesis
was successful enough to be noticed and contested by a distinguished
authority on 17th century European history, Sir George Clark. Clark's knowledge of the source is
unquestionably greater than Hessen's; but the
refutation manages to overreach the argument. According to Clark, 'the scientific movement
was set going' by 'six interpenetrating but independent impulses' from
outside and 'some of its results percolated down into practice and were
applied'. The external impulses were from 'economic life, from war, from
medicine, from the arts, and from religion', What is left then of the
independence of science? The sixth impulse was from the 'disinterested
desire to know'. So far as I know, all six impulses applied from the very
earliest civilisations of Mesopotamia, Egypt,
China, and probably the Indus Valley, without producing what we recognize
as 'science' from, say, the time of Galileo. What was the essentially
different factor? The Marxist answer would be: 'the rise of the
proto-bourgeoisie in Europe'. No Marxist would claim that science can be
independent of the social system within which the scientist must function.
Much the same
treatment may be given to literature. Disregarding oversimplification, can
one say that Shakespeare's plays manifest the rise of the Elizabethan
proto-bourgeoisie, when the said dramas are full of kings, lords and
princes? The answer is yes. Compare Hamlet or Richard the Third with
leading characters in the Chanson de Roland. Not only Pistol, Nym and Bardolph but the
fattest Shakespearean parts like Shylock and Falstaff are difficult to visualise in feudal literature. The characters in those
plays have a 'modern' psychology, which accounts for their appeal to the
succeeding bourgeoisie, and hence the survival value of the dramas
themselves. Troilus and Cressida are not feudal characters any more than
they are Homeric; Newton's Latin prose and archaic
geometrical proofs in the Principia make that work unreadable, but
do not make it Roman or Greek science.
Talking with Indian
peasants gives a grim view of modern India, and of the service science
can render to any society based upon the profit motive. The demoralisation of the poor and middle peasants (the
vast majority) is explained by the miserable diet on which they have to
subsist, year in and year out, generation after generation, with no hope of
better. The passive, unresisting stratum thus created may provide the
foundation for dictatorship that could be evoked by the naked greed of
kulak and petty-bourgeois, the cynical grab of Big Money, facile
opportunism of pliable intellectuals and the leaden foot of bureaucracy
never remarkable for honesty and efficiency. Surely, the problem of a
better food supply is crucial, not only for attaining the socialism which
is announced as India's goal, but even to preserve what democracy the
country possesses. But what can the scientist do?
India, the experts tell us, is
overpopulated and will remain poor unless birth control and population
planning is introduced. But surely, overpopulation can only be with respect
to the available food supply. Availability depends upon production,
transport and the system of distribution- here under private control. What
is the total amount of food produced? We have theological quarrels between
two schools of statisticians, but no reliable estimate of how much is
actually grown, and what proportion thereof escapes vermin-including
middlemen and profiteers- to reach the consumer. If shopkeepers can and do
raise prices without effective control, what does a rise in the national
income mean? Is it the scarcity of grain or of purchasing power? A great
deal is said about superstitious common people who must be educated before
birth control becomes effective. No superstition which runs strongly
counter to their fundamental economic interests continues for long to grip
the 'common people'. Children are the sole means of support for those among
the common people who manage to reach helpless old age. The futility of numerical
'planning' for the population, when nothing is done to ensure that even the
able-bodied will have a decent level of existence, is obvious to anyone but
a born expert. It is not that our poverty is due to overpopulation, but
rather that the overpopulation is due to poverty. Convince the common
people that they will be fed arid looked after even when they have no
children, and birth control will immediately become popular
.
Let me give two
small examples of scientific effort which could easily have been turned to
better account. Considerable funds will be devoted during the Third plan to
research on the uses of bagasse (sugarcane pulp).
At present, it is used as fuel, and the ashes as
fertilizer, whereas paper and many other things could be made from it. But
are other uses (quite well-known) the best in the present state of Indian
economy? The extra money to be spent on fuel, not to speak of difficulties
in getting fuel, would increase the already high cost of sugar manufacture;
new factories for byproducts mean considerable foreign exchange for the machinery , and for the 'experts'. But Hungarian
scientists fermented the bagasse in closed vats.
The gas given off can be burned, so that the fuel value is not reduced; the
sludge makes excellent fertilizer for the fields, without any further
treatment; this saves money on chemical fertilizers and improves the soil.
The scheme has apparently been pushed into the background. Again, the
proper height of a dam is important in order to reduce the outlay to a minimum,
without the risk of running dry more than (say) once in twenty years. The
problem is statistical, based upon the rainfall and runoff data where both
exist. The principles I suggested were adopted by the Planning Commission,
though not as emanating from me. Neither the engineers nor the Planning
Commission would consider a more important suggestion, nameJy
that many cheap small dams should be located by plan and built from local
materials with local labour. Monsoon water would
be conserved and two or three crops raised
annually on good soil that now yields only one. The only country where I
have seen innumerable small dams spring up during
the last five years is China, which has not failed to
construct giant dams wherever necessary. However, it is futile to speak-
even from my personal observations in the field -of the exhilerating
achievements, social and material, of the Chinese since liberation. Here,
the obstacle is not ignorance, but private ownership and lack of
cooperation.
This country needs
every form of power available, but is too poor to throw money away on
costly fads like atomic energy merely because they look modern. A really
paying development will be of solar energy. The advanced countries have not
so much sunlight as we do, hence care less for the development. The problem
lies deeper than is imagined. The reforestation indispensable for good
agriculture will not be possible without fuel to replace firewood and charcol. Coal mining does not suffice even for industry, fuel oil has to be imported. An efficient
solar cooker would be the answer. Such cookers exist and have been used
abroad. The one produced in India was hopelessly inefficient
(in spite of the many Indian physicists of international reputation).
Tremendous publicity and a faked demonstration made the gullible public buy
just enough useless 'cookers' for a quick profit to the manufacturer
.
In one matter, it
was necessary to speak out though it meant considerable damage to finances,
health and research. Atomic war and the testing of nuclear weapons must
stop. A flimsy 'Indian Report' on the effects of atomic relation shows our
moral and scientific bankruptcy by ignoring the extensive data compiled
since 1945. In one country which has had the most painful experience of
atomic radiation applied to human beings- Japan. The real danger is not
death, which is a release for most Indians, but genetic damage to all
humanity. We know what radiation does to heredity in the banana-fly Drosophila
melanogaster, with its four chromosomes and
life-cycle of eleven days. A good deal was found out in the USA about what happens to
laboratory mice. What little has been released for publication is enough to
terrify. Man is as much more complicated than a mouse as the mouse than the
fruit-fly. Humans take a proportionately longer time to breed and to reach
maturity, giving fuller scope for genetic derangements to develop. It may
take some twenty generations to find out just what these derangements
amount to. By then they will have been bred into many millions of human
beings, not as a disease but incurably as a set of hereditary characters.
Mankind cannot afford to gamble with its own future in this way, whether
that future lies in the hands of communists or not.
Science and Human
Progress (Prof D.D. Kosambi Commermoration
Volume) Popular Prakashan, Bombay, 1974
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