Anybody doubting Dallas County's return to the forefront of statewide Democratic politics should note:
Among the 8 very large counties in Texas (250,000+ registered voters) Dallas County was number one in voter turnout percentage.
Although Dallas has substantially fewer registered voters than Harris County it turned out more runoff voters which makes Dallas County the single largest voting county in the Democratic runoff.
Approximately 15% of all votes in the Democratic runoff were cast in Dallas County.
Democratic turnout in Dallas County for the runoff exceeded Republican turnout for the runoff by nearly 5-1 whereas the Democratic advantage statewide was between 2.5 and 3 to one. While there are explanations for these figures, the fact is that Republicans had their own statewide primaries and that Dallas County Republican Voters also had a county wide runoff which we did not.
And, of course, Dallas County gave Ron Kirk by far his largest plurality of any county, with only Harris County even close.
In raw numbers, we outvoted (formerly) "Republican" Dallas by 92,600 votes to 19,000 votes (a difference of 74,000), even though there were a number of heated Republican runoffs on the ballot.
For those of us who have toiled so long and so hard to change this county -- and who have had few bright spots in 20 years -- we are now poised to put this county back into the Democratic column. Now is the time for the campaign we used to run: "one punch!" or "una palanca." Or, with the new voting equipment: one mark or "una marca."
Needless to say, we are crazy with optimism tonight in Dallas. It has been a long drought. There is much work to do, but now we know it will not be a futile effort.
Bruce is right, it has been a good evening. We've got our ticket. Now let's run with it.
Victor Morales spoke to supporters at an Austin restaurant. He did not concede defeat or congratulate the winner. According to the Dallas News, he said "he won't run for office again in Texas. He said he had no plans to endorse Mr. Kirk." He also was "saying the party establishment had repeatedly worked against him."
"I completely distrust the Democratic Party leadership," he said. "This is not someone whining. Playing fair and doing the right thing was not in their book. Can I prove wrongdoing? Not likely. There is no way Ron Kirk could have had those numbers on his own."
"There's a reason I have so much support and all these endorsements," Mr. Kirk said. "It's not David against Goliath. More people support my stance on the issues and the fact that I'm more qualified to serve in the Senate."
In 1996 Victor Morales ran for U.S. Senator. He refused to take any money from any PACs, including not only organized labor but even the Democratic Party itself. He rejected help from experienced people sent by national. When we asked to put his picture along with others on a door-hanger with a list of candidates, he refused. He would not campaign with other Democratic candidates, and made a point of not endorsing any of them, saying he was "independent".
In the general election he got exactly the average percentage of all of our statewide candidates. His showing was bettered by several other Democrats that year, including Gene Kelly who did absolutely nothing to campaign.
In 1982 the entire Democratic slate of statewide candidates won. They did it by working together and helping each other bring out the vote for the whole ticket.
In 1998 the entire Democratic slate of statewide candidates lost. With two or three exceptions, they were all running away from each other, often refusing to appear with others or endorse them. The Republicans did not need to "divide and conquer" -- we did it to ourselves.
Most of the party (and those candidates) have learned a valuable lesson from that campaign. This year we have a slate that is committed to working TOGETHER for the whole Democratic ticket. Each candidate will bring their supporters to the table and they will all try to help each other. That is the only way Democrats, always outspent by the special interests, can win general elections.
This is going to be a very exciting year, and a lot of Democrats are going to WIN in November, by cooperating with each other. Together, we will all help make a better world for everyone.
After avoiding endorsement of either candidate, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tony Sanchez threw his support behind U.S. Senate candidate Ron Kirk on Monday, the eve of a heated runoff with schoolteacher Victor Morales.
"Tony is supporting Ron," said Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders. "It has grown apparent, especially in the last few days of this campaign, that Ron Kirk has earned this party's nomination and we're going to do what we can to help him."
Fliers, paid for by Kirk's campaign, circulated Monday with Sanchez's endorsement.
"A personal request from Tony Sanchez," the flier read. "You and I can make history today. Please join me in voting for our friend Ron Kirk."
Sanchez had said through a spokesman Wednesday he did not plan to endorse either candidate.
"Tony is sending a message today with his endorsement that he wants Ron Kirk by his side in November and they'll be working together to help take Texas from good to great," said Kirk spokeswoman Carol Butler.
The Morales camp shrugged off the endorsement.
"We're not surprised. We expected it last week," said Suzanne Moreno, Morales' chief of staff. "It may sway a few, but not a significant enough number to affect Victor's stance in the Valley."
APRIL 4, 2002:
[We are forwarding this for the ProChoice Caucus of the Texas
Democratic Party. Lisa Payne is a former Dallas County Chair and a
current member of the State Democratic Executive Committee.]
Dear Democrats,
Please vote in the Democratic Primary Runoff election on Tuesday for the
US Senate candidate who supports a woman's right to reproductive freedom.
Ron Kirk is PRO CHOICE and will support the reproductive rights of women.
Victor Morales may or may not be - we cannot be sure. On Sunday, 3/10,
the Dallas Morning News reported the US Senate candidates positions
on abortion. According to this article and Morales' statements in the
televised debates:
======>>> Victor Morales is against abortion and "agrees with President
Bush" and supports abortion only in extremely limited circumstances
(save the life of the mother or assault).
VERY recently the Morales' website has been updated with the following:
"HE IS NOT FOR ABORTION -He does not personally agree with the act of an
abortion, but after discussing this issue with his wife, he feels it is
not his right or the government's right to tell a woman what she can and
can not do with her body."
Ron Kirk is unequivically PRO CHOICE.
We cannot afford a "kinda" supportive Senator or one that may change his
mind again when he discusses the issue with someone else.
Democratically yours,
Lisa Payne
ProChoice Caucus* of the Texas Democratic Party
* The ProChoice Caucus is formed under the rules of the Texas Democratic
Party. Membership is open to all ProChoice Texas Democrats. There are no
dues. The next meeting will be at the TDP state convention, June 14,
2002 in El Paso. To join, send your name, address, phone, email and Senate
District # to:
Lisa Payne, 631 Meadowbrooke Pl, Duncanville, TX 75137 [email protected]
APRIL 3, 2002:
EARLY VOTING RESULTS
Early Voting in person totals are in for Monday and Tuesday for
the Runoff. Here's the good news for both sides:
The Democratic turnout in Dallas County is way up from the first
day's total for the Primary. For Monday we had 1790 votes this time,
versus only 440 before. We have QUADRUPLED our vote.
Even better, this time we beat the Republicans, who only voted 659
this time. They were up only slightly from their Primary first day vote
of 626. That means that our huge jump is not just because there are
fewer days of early voting, but it means a real increase in interest
in voting in our Runoff.
On Tuesday our total here went up even more, to 2103, versus 782
for the Republicans, so the same analysis applies -- and our totals are
still growing here.
This is good news for ALL of our candidates for the fall.
In particular, this is likely to be good news for the Ron Kirk
campaign, since he got 70% of the vote here in Dallas County. However,
this won't be much comfort to them when they look at the statewide
figures.
Here's the good news for the Victor Morales campaign:
The Secretary of State has posted Early Voting in person totals
for Monday for the fifteen largest counties by total registration.
This doesn't tell you a lot unless you know what these counties are.
So I'm giving the data here just for the Democrats, and I've added the
percentages received in the Primary in those counties by Kirk and Morales.
County Vote K% M%
Harris 1088 28 17
Dallas 1800 70 19
Bexar 775 35 47
Tarrant 1025 62 27
Travis 843 62 23
El Paso 1404 21 53
Collin 253 60 23
Denton 161 61 25
Hidalgo 4058 16 56
Ft. Bend 122 35 15
Nueces 1636 27 49
Montgomery 44 12 20
Galveston 224 21 20
Williamson 109 52 24
Jefferson 406 27 20
No, that is NOT a typo for Hidalgo County (that's McAllen and Edinburg
in the Rio Grande Valley). It also got the highest first day vote in the
Primary, and only doubled its total this time. It has some very hot local
runoff contests. It is also something like 85% Hispanic. Three of the four
highest voting counties Monday are heavily Hispanic: Hidalgo, Nueces
(Corpus Christi), and El Paso. Look at the Morales percentages in those
counties. Kirk ran best in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and in Travis
County (Austin). Look how much lower those vote totals are.
There are lots of ways to look at this. A real simple one is to just
multiply the percentage of each candidate by the total vote, and ignore the
percentages for the other candidates. A quick & unchecked run showed 4993
for Kirk, and 5436 for Morales. Or assume that Kirk and Morales got the
same percentages relative to each other as in the Primary and all of these
votes went for one or the other. A quick count on that gives 6723 for Kirk
and 7225 for Morales. Or split the percentages that other candidates got
evenly between the two, and again Morales wins. I won't go on with
these "guesstimates". They all show Morales leading.
As I said before, most of the hot local runoffs are in Hispanic areas.
That tends to help Morales, since those are the areas where he got the most
votes in the Primary. The local candidates are stirring up turnout which
helps him, even though he has no real money or organization, and is only
campaigning part-time.
If Kirk is going to win, he will need to increase the turnout in
counties and precincts where he did well. One place he could do that is
Dallas County. In precincts here where Kirk got at least 75% of the vote,
the voter turnout in the Primary was 16%. [That was more than twice the
county average -- which seems to prove that Kirk does help voter turnout.]
Those precincts voted only 22,323 in the Primary, but they have 139,028
registered voters, and those are almost all Democrats. A massive get-out-
the-vote effort could easily gain Kirk tens of thousands of added votes
here. This election could still be close enough for that to make the
difference.
Whoever you are for, it's really up to you. Don't just sit back -- get
involved and help your candidate. Walk, phone, mail. NOW.
--Bill Howell, DCDP Chair, [email protected]
APRIL 2, 2002:
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Ron Kirk for U.S. Senate
Date: Tue, 02 Apr 2002 09:40:33 -0600
From: "Molberg, Ken" [email protected]
Dear Fellow Democrats,
The following Dallas-area members of the State Democratic Executive
Committee, and the current and incoming Dallas County Democratic Chairs,
encourage you to vote for Ron Kirk in the April 9 run-off election for U.S.
Senator.
Why do we support Ron Kirk?
Ron Kirk has the experience and qualifications to make a great Senator.
As Party leaders who have been elected by broad Democratic
constituencies, we know that public service is a commitment, sacrifice
and privilege. Ron Kirk's previous jobs as Mayor, Secretary of State
to Gov. Ann Richards, Assistant District Attorney, and Legislative Aide
to Sen. Lloyd Bentsen have given him extensive experience in various
areas.
Ron Kirk understands the issues important to Texas and our country.
We know that Ron Kirk is a proud, progressive Democrat who supports
education for all children, clean air and water, affordable and accessible
health care, expanded Medicare, saving Social Security, and reproductive
freedom. He also will carefully evaluate future judicial appointments with a
cautious eye on these important issues.
Ron Kirk will conduct a serious campaign and can win in November.
We have been involved in hundreds of campaigns. Our experience
tells us that Ron Kirk will do what it takes to get elected. The balance
in the Senate may hang on this election. Ron Kirk is the only one in this
race who can help preserve our edge.
Remember -
Early voting began April 1 and will continue through Friday, April 5, from
7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at convenient locations around the county. Early voting
locations can be found for those of you in Dallas County at this
link..
Runoff Election Day is Tuesday, April 9, with the polls open from
7 a.m. to 7 p.m. To find your polling location, look in the Dallas
Morning News on Election Day or call the Dallas County Elections
Department at 214-819-6300 or see their website.
Democratically,
Shannon Bailey
Theresa Daniel
Ken Molberg
Lisa Payne
Barry Sprouse
Ron Spurlock
Peggy Wildman
Martha Williams
Ruth Wyrick
Michael Milliken
Susan Hays
Bill Howell
Bernice Conley
THE REST OF THE STORY
Yesterday I sent out a comparison of the 1996 Democratic U.S. Senate
primary and this year's very similar contest. The point was to show how
much your vote matters, because when the turnout drops in the runoff
anything can happen.
Someone asked what happened after the runoff was over six years ago. How
did Victor Morales do compared with other candidates in that general
election, or in his race for Congress in 1998?
THE 1996 GENERAL ELECTION Statewide Candidates:
Office, Republican/Democrat % for Democrat
U.S Senate, Graham/Morales 43.9%
Chief Justice Supreme Court, Phillips/Kupper 40.6%
Supreme Court Place 1, Cornyn/Barron 45.5%
Supreme Court Place 2, Baker/Gene Kelly 42.7%
Ct Criminal Appeals Place 1, Holland/Perkins 44.6%
Ct Criminal Appeals Place 2, Womack/Holcomb 46.5%
Ct Criminal Appeals Place 3, Price/Maloney 46.2%
Railroad Commission, Rylander/Uribe 39.0%
Throwing out the lowest and highest percent yields an average Democratic
performance for the 1996 general election of 43.9%, matching Morales'
performance statewide. Four other statewide candidates that year
outperformed Morales, including Gene Kelly, who did nothing whatsoever to
campaign. The Clinton/Gore ticket got 30,459 more votes than Morales.
THE 1996 GENERAL ELECTION FOR U.S. HOUSE DIST. 5
John Pouland 46.93% Pete Sessions 53.06%
Dallas County: Pouland 43.85% Sessions 56.14%
THE 1998 GENERAL ELECTION FOR U.S. HOUSE DIST. 5
Pete Sessions 55.76% Victor M. Morales 43.43%
Dallas County: Sessions 57.91% Morales 41.20%
THE 2000 GENERAL ELECTION FOR U.S. HOUSE DIST. 5
Pete Sessions 54.03% Regina Montoya Coggins 44.43%
Dallas County: Sessions 52.73% Coggins 45.51%
Summary: Pete Sessions won three consecutive races for Congress against
three different Democrats. John Pouland did best of the three districtwide.
Regina Montoya Coggins did best in the Dallas County part of the district.
Victor Morales got the lowest percentage both ways.
There are all sorts of ways to spin all these numbers. Draw your own
conclusions and make up your own mind. And of course, electability (or past
performance in elections) is not the only thing to consider. If a candidate
was wrong or doubtful on an issue I care deeply about, like choice, that
would be even more important to me.
Whoever wins this runoff, I will be voting for the
Democratic nominees this fall. Some of them may not have been my first
choice. I may have even voted against some of them in the Primary or in
the Runoff. But I know that electing more Democrats will help make a
better world for us all. Over four decades I have learned that unless we
unite in the general election, we will always lose -- and so will all the
people of this state and nation.
--Bill Howell, DCDP Chair, [email protected]
APRIL 1, 2002:
TOO CLOSE TO CALL?
How important is your vote going to be in the Runoff for U.S. Senate?
Six years ago we had a Primary for this same U.S. Senate seat. That year we
also had a Runoff between Victor Morales and Dallas Congressman John
Bryant. Here's what happened:
THE 1996 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FOR U.S. SENATE
Statewide: Total 890,623
John Bryant 30.04%
Victor M. Morales 36.17%
Dallas County: Total 40,143
John Bryant 71.04%
Victor Morales 19.29%
THE 1996 DEMOCRATIC RUNOFF FOR U.S. SENATE
Statewide: Total 481,895
John Bryant 48.82%
Victor M. Morales 51.17%
Dallas County: Total 26,375
John Bryant 72.85%
Victor Morales 27.10%
When Morales ran against Bryant in the runoff, 3 of the 4 Congressional
runoffs were in San Antonio, Corpus Christi, El Paso, and Laredo, and
legislative runoffs were in the El Paso area, Bexar County, and the
Hispanic areas of Dallas and Tarrant counties.
These local runoffs brought out lots of Hispanic voters, and most of
them went for Morales. Even though he had almost no money or organization,
he benefitted from those local contests.
Now let's take a look at this year:
THE 2002 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FOR U.S. SENATE
Statewide: Total 954,655
RON KIRK 33.10%
VICTOR MORALES 33.21%
Dallas County: Total 77,938
RON KIRK 69.76%
VICTOR MORALES 19.24%
THE 2002 DEMOCRATIC RUNOFF FOR U.S. SENATE
Note that Morales got 19.29% in Dallas County in the 1996 Primary, and
he got 19.24% in 2002 -- an identical percentage (although his statewide
percentage dropped). In the 1996 Runoff John Bryant got 72.85% in Dallas
County, but lost statewide. This time Ron Kirk got 69.76% in the Primary in
Dallas County -- almost the same as Bryant did here in the Runoff.
Could history repeat itself? Well, where are the other Democratic
Runoffs this time? See < href="http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/candidates/runoff/dem.htm">this list.
Note the addresses of most of these candidates: places like San Antonio,
Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Laredo, etc. -- Hispanic areas. Look at the
names: Hinojosa, Canales, Campero, Rodriguez, etc. -- Hispanic local
candidates. In Houston, the names are Flores and Moreno, which tells you
that is an Hispanic district. In Dallas County our local runoff is in
Constable Precinct 5, designed to be the "Hispanic precinct", and has an
Hispanic candidate.
Yes, history could very easily repeat itself this year. If you're for
Victor Morales, you should be cheered at the prospect. If you're for Ron
Kirk, you should be afraid - very afraid.
Whoever you are for, realize that only a very few votes will make the
difference this year. Vote, get any Democrat who agrees with you to vote,
and work hard to get out more votes for your choice.
This runoff will help decide our future for years to come.
--Bill Howell, DCDP Chair, [email protected]
HELP YOUR CANDIDATE WIN!
Who's going to win the runoff for U.S. Senator? That will be decided by
three words: Turnout, Turnout, and Turnout. There are enough supporters of
either candidate to win -- if that person's voters turn out to vote in
greater numbers. All that matters for the next week is which one inspires
more people to go vote.
How can you help? Well, you can contact the campaigns:
Ron Kirk
Website: www.ronkirkfortexas.com
Email: [email protected]
2800 North Henderson
Dallas TX 75206
214-841-1001 or 214-941-8444
Fax: 214-841-1094
Victor Morales
Website: www.victormorales.net
Email: [email protected]
P.O. Box 870789
Mesquite TX 75187
972-427-9946
[We have been told that the Kirk campaign is running local phone banks
this week. We haven't heard from the Morales campaign.]
Or you can just work your own precinct for your candidate. The DCDP
office can help. If you're a Precinct Chair and want a phone list of
Democratic voters in your own precinct, call Angela at 214-821-8331. (It
may take one or two days, as we're backed up with runoff stuff.) If your
precinct doesn't have a chair, or they don't have time to work the precinct
themself, don't just sit there -- do it on your own.
Call the Democrats in your precinct and remind them about early voting
(when and where), and about the Runoff on Tuesday April 9, and ask them to
please vote for whoever it is you think is the best candidate. That's not
much effort, but it does helps get people to vote.
Even better, if you have the time, is to actually walk the precinct door-
to-door and talk to the Democratic voters in person. I don't mean just
leave a flyer on the door -- knock on the door and wait to talk to them. If
they aren't home, go back again another time. If they still aren't there,
try it yet another time.
In the runoff for Mayor of Houston last November the Democrat beat the
Republican, despite being outspent by a huge margin. He won by massive door-
to-door get-out-the-vote efforts. Lots of people were knocking on all those
Democratic doors over and over again.
This is what we need to do to win for ALL of our candidates this fall,
so we may as well get in practice now. Get a good pair of walking shoes and
enjoy the spring weather.
This is a vital contest not just for the Senate race, but because of its
impact on all of the rest of the ticket. Don't just make your choice --
make a difference in helping your candidate WIN!
--Bill Howell, DCDP Chair, [email protected]
WE NEED JUDGES AND CLERKS FOR THE RUNOFF
The Dallas County Democratic Party still needs more Election Judges and
Clerks to hold the Primary Runoff on Tuesday, April 9.
As always, some of the people who worked the Primary are not available
this time (especially several teachers who were off then for spring break).
If we don't find all the judges we need, once again we will have to make
some last-minute consolidations of voting places. That always confuses some
voters and irritates many. Please help!
All you have to be is a voter in the county who can take the day off. If
you can help out for only part of the day you can still be a clerk and help
out signing voters in and so on.
The job actually does pay, but only minimum wage, and it takes the
county a few weeks to get the checks out. The real payment is knowing that
you have helped the Democratic process function.
If you can be a judge, call Carter at the party office at 214-821-8331.
If you can help out as a clerk, call Angela at the party office at
214-821-8331.
--Bill Howell, DCDP Chair, [email protected]
VOTE EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RUNOFF.
I voted first thing this morning, and it was FAST! There were only two races
on the ballot -- U.S. Senator and Constable, Precinct 5. Most of you will
not have the Constable runoff in your precinct, and a few will have runoffs
for Precinct Chair, but no one will have to cast more than three votes.
You CAN vote in the Runoff even if you did not vote in the Primary. The only
persons who cannot vote in the Democratic Runoff are those who voted in the
Republican Primary.
Early Voting for the Runoff will ONLY be from Monday through Friday of this
week, with NO WEEKEND EARLY VOTING. The polls will be open from 7 AM to
7 PM all five days this week.
Early Voting Locations for the April 9 Runoff
Contact Information for the candidates
Runoff Contests for Precinct Chair
The contest for U.S. Senate is likely to be VERY close statewide. Only a few
votes could make the difference. If you missed voting in the Primary,
please do vote in the Runoff, and get any other Democrats you know to do
the same. Thanks!
--Bill Howell, DCDP Chair, [email protected]
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