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| The Center for Creating the Future has an optimistic view of the future (see the first meeting where Jack Latona expresses his belief in the ability of people to work together for a positive result...eventually) ....... The item that follows appeared in Utne reader (the article is extracted for commentary purposes and to facilitate dialog. To subscribe to the Utne reader, go to www.utne.com). Write to us with your comments about Life After Oil (email: [email protected]). How will your life be changed? |
| Viewpoint One (Negative) Utne Reader Online: Earth... "A soft dark age..." May 20, 2001 Life After Oil With global oil demand outpacing reserves, now�s the time to find new ways to get around By Jeremiah Creedon, Utne Reader Long after the oil age has burned itself out, the future will assign a date to when the flame first wavered. It might have been 30 years ago when the world�s great energy consumer, the United States, started using more oil than it produced. Or it might be tomorrow, if we end up drilling in Alaska�s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for what amounts to six months� worth of fuel. In any case, the crucial point will not be when the end begins, but how long after that we�ll go on denying it. This lag will determine how well our country and the world move beyond the oil age; the longer we hesitate, the more brutal it will be. We actually have a pretty good idea of when even car-loving Americans will have to face the truth. Certain energy experts have seen the moment coming for decades. They�re waiting for what a recent report from the U.S. Geological Survey calls the Big Rollover�the point when the world starts needing more oil than it supplies. These forecasts began with a guy named M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist who in 1956 correctly predicted the initial American rollover in 1970. In 1974 he estimated that the global peak would occur in 1995�not a bad guess. Current forecasts range from 2003 to 2020. In other words, we won�t have to run completely out of oil to be rudely awakened. The panic starts once the world needs more oil than it gets. Once the pain becomes real, the Darwinian impulse kicks in and the orderly market gives way to chaos. "The United States will fight hard and dirty," warns David Fleming, a policy analyst, because we�ll have the money to feed our addiction. Other countries won�t. "The United States will export oil scarcity to the rest of the world," adds Fleming, and he�s blunt about what happens after that: "There will be economic destabilization." Some insist that industrial societies are growing less dependent on oil. Fleming says they�re kidding themselves. They�re talking about oil use as a percentage of total energy use, not the actual amount of oil burned. Measured by the barrel, we�re burning more and more. Transportation is the weak link in any modern economy; choke off the oil and a country quickly seizes. Insuring food is a major concern, he says. We need to localize food production and return to using more human labor. Solar and wind power must be developed. Fuel must be rationed, on both a domestic and an international scale. We must resist the rising cry for more nuclear power, he says; it�s too pricey, and radioactive waste gets even more dangerous in times of political disarray. Fleming believes that burning more coal may be the "lesser evil." Despite coal�s negative impact on the climate, we�ll have to burn something while we�re working on alternatives. In any case, nothing will happen until political leaders and other social engineers accept the problem and get the public involved in solving it. There are dissenting views. Some argue that the world�s immediate problem is too much oil. They believe that low oil prices over the next 20 years could trigger turmoil in Central Asia, the Middle East, and other oil-rich hot spots. We need a better worldview than the militant market optimism that so often underlies them. Without such a shift, the tension between reality and ideology could resolve itself in tragic ways. Fleming implies that our governments should take the lead, which is probably true, but can we wait? There are several respected estimates as to when the Big Rollover will occur. They all fall within the next 20 years. If you average them out, it doesn�t take much voodoo to end up on 2012. Decades ago, the late thinker Terence McKenna landed on 2012 when he plotted out his "Time Wave Zero" theory. McKenna predicted modern society would descend at that moment into a "soft dark age," followed a few years later by a major mind shift that will lift us out of the dead-end thinking that shaped the angry, smoggy, smoldering 20th century. It is a good reminder that cultural patterns do change, and that other peoples have tried hard to anticipate why and when. We should do the same�if for no other reason than to keep from being caught in traffic when it happens. ~~~~ [email protected] - � Lens Publishing Company, Inc. 1995-1999 A Service of Utne Reader |
| Viewpoint Two (Positive) Transportation is the key... Preparation is the key... Flexibility is the key... It will be interesting to see what we will do to avoid a "soft dark age" -- I expect that biofuels, alcohol fuels and fuels from coal will quickly rush into the market to fill gaps. Steve McCrea Institute for the Post-Petroleum Era |
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| Jack Latona established the Center for Creating the Future, Inc., in 2001 as a think tank to further explore concepts about he future he had developed for a university course on The Millennium. In addition to their theoretical interest, these concepts have significant practical applications for businesses and other organizations. As a result, The Center�s web site now has two sections, one to continue theoretical discussion of the future, the other to provide information on how The Center can assist organizations to begin to crate their futures now. Please CLICK HERE to go to the Center�s new web site at www.creatingthefuture.org. |