If you think back to how the political landscape was about one year ago, you had a President who was enjoying high approvals, we were gearing up for what was expected to be a very successful and popular war in Iraq, and many of the possible Democratic Presidential candidates were running for the hills. The perception was that George Bush would waltz into a second term via election landslide, and no legitimate Democrat wanted to be the Walter Mondale of 2004.
Of course, the political landscape has changed over the past months� and the almost certain re-election of the President has been replace by rumblings of his vulnerability. The primary and caucus going Democrats have shifted gears, turning away from the candidate with the message that they wanted to hear (Dr Dean) and started looking for a candidate that offered the best hope of being elected.
Problem one is that the nine original candidates were really the second stringers of the Democratic Party� and it is those second stringers that they are forced to choose from. Is there any question that someone like Al Gore would be trouncing the field right now as he hammered home is 2000 popular vote victory down on Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark and the rest of the wanna-bes???
Problem two is that you have the most serious hardcore voters of the party trying to figure out whom the moderates of the voting public would like in a general election. In this particular case, they seem to have chosen what they see as a conservative strategy of picking the well known and experienced John Kerry. While they may point to recent polling showing Kerry running close in mock election results as being right in this selection� at closer look it would appear the Kerry is polling better because he become the frontrunner, rather than him becoming the frontrunner because he polled better. In fact, before Iowa there was very little indication that the general public felt any better about Kerry than anyone else.
Even many party members are quick to point out that Kerry doesn�t necessary light their own fire as Dean or others do, but that they see his electability as his strength. My first thought is if Kerry doesn�t really excite his own party members, how do they expect him to excite the general public? The thing about John Kerry that is sort of odd, is that he is a pretty well known politician, yet has accomplished little in his 17 years in the Senate. He seems Presidential according to his followers, but any real experience to back up the image.
Right now, people are trying to figure out who John Kerry is outside of his trademark long face and perfectly combed hair. John Kerry �is� the unnamed Democrat in many ways. A man that most everyone knows; a man considered dignified and experience; a man with little record of real accomplishments or failures to mull over. Eventually, however, the public will want to know a little more about the guy in order to hand over the reigns to him during the most turbulent political time in our generation. Will they be impressed that he sits on the Foreign Relations committee, or that he heads the subcommittee on oceans, fisheries, and the environment? Will they wonder why he hasn�t authored any real groundbreaking legislation in his long tenure? Will his record on voting to cut defense and intelligence funding cause alarm or even concern??
This isn�t a normal election. This isn�t 2000, 1996, 1992 or any other election year in the recent past. Our country was attacked on it�s own soil for the first time since Pearl Harbor, our Country has endured two wars over the past 2 years, and continues to fight insurgency in both places, our country is still threatened by terror groups that wish unimaginable harm on our country, our citizens, our economy, and our way of life. The challenge to the Democrats is to find someone who can convince Americans that they are up to the task of protecting our country from these threats. While this hasn�t been much of a theme on the primary campaign trail, it certainly will be in the general election. For that particular challenge, the Democrats may have been better off if some of the players from the first string had decided to play. |
