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Keeping It Real: What We Can Expect from an Obama Presidency -- and What We Can't
By Charles Kirchofer, Nov. 6th, 2008
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Barack Obama was elected President of the United States amidst great
fanfare -- and amidst great promises. Will he keep all his promises?
The short is answer is no. No politician ever keeps all of his or her
promises, for one because situations change, for two because the
process of democracy forces candidates to bend the truth and exaggerate
the possibilities to get elected. In fact, it is a poor politician who
does not change his or her
plans as new situations arise. George Bush Sr. ecountered this problem
in the early 90s. Remember his campaign slogan? "Read my lips: NO NEW
TAXES!" When Bush came into office, he encountered a difficult
situation: America's budget deficit was increasing, and the economy was
faltering. His advisors told him raising taxes was unavoidable.
Eventually he did, and it brought the end of his presidency after just
one term. This brings us to another point: don't promise things that
you can't deliver in any form whatsoever. George W. Bush promised many
things he shoudn't have, and he kept
his promises, even when it turned out his plans were bad ideas. Now the
country is in a fiscal and political mess. A little more adaptability
would have been nice in the last eight years. I expect Obama to be an
adaptable, pragmatic president, in stark contrast to the rigid,
ideological presidency of the past eight years. But what can we expect
of out new president?
I expect Barack Obama to reunite Americans and heal some of the wounds
that have been inflicted against Americans in the past years. George W.
Bush (and unfortunately John McCain as well) ran using a divisive
message of two Americas: the right one and the wrong one. Americans,
particularly those on the left who found themselves in fake America,
wrong America, or even terrorist America ("Either you are with us, or
you are with the terrorists.1"),
are angry. They are angry at being cast aside and belittled, at being
accused of lacking patriotism or even morals in general. At the same
time, people on the right have been told the people on the left are
their enemies. This is a destructive division, and it is up to Barack
Obama to begin to heal this wound and remind Americans that whatever
has happened since September 11th, all of us just want to find the best
way to move forward. We all want security and prosperity, and its time
to have an earnest talk about how best to achieve these goals, as there
is doubt that the current methods were the right ones.
In addition, I expect Obama to tacle the current American economic
crisis. Obama has an excellent team of economic advisors who know their
stuff. The budget deficit should first be addressed after we are past
the GDP trough, meaning after we see positive GDP growth again and the
economy appears to be righting itself. Although I strongly opposed
Bush's tax cuts and think reversing them is the right policy, now may
not be the best time. Alternatively, Obama might push to combine them
with a tax cuts for poorer families, as consumer confidence has shrunk
and consumers are the main driving force behind America's economy. This
could even help slightly with those having difficulty meeting their
mortgage payments. This brings us to the next point: Obama must work
with the treasury, the Fed, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to come up
with a plan to help keep homeowners in their homes and paying their
mortgages. This would help stabilize home prices and bring an end to
the financial crisis, if not the immediate end of the economic crisis.
(It's important to note that home prices will probably not rise
significantly, or may even continue to fall slowly, for quite some
time, regardless of government plans).
Finally, I expect Obama to repair relations with our allies and begin
moving the painstaking process of diplomacy throughout the world
forward. Clinton left off at a pretty good spot in 2001, the last eight
years have seen us fall backwards from that point. Seeing candidate
Obama in action abroad showed the enthusiasm our allies had for him.
Even in the Middle East, Obama was well received. Ironically, the area
where Obama was most criticized for his inexperience is the are in
which I expect him to do better than McCain could have: international
relations.
So what can't Obama do? I have
serious doubts about the feasibility of his healthcare and alternative
energy porgrams at the current time. These programs might even have to
wait until his second term, if he manages to win again without having
implemented them. Although Obama has continually claimed he has cuts in
other areas of spending in addition to the reversal in Bush's tax cuts
to match the increases required for healthcare and spending on
alternative energy, the consensus is that his figures don't add up (by
about the same amount that McCain's figures also didn't add up. This
may be why niether candidate really attacked the other based on budget
proposals.2).
It seems Obama must delay some of his plans or abandon them all
together for the sake of the economics crisis and the yawning federal
budget deficit. What plans should Obama delay? This is a pianful
decision, as all of them are good. Obama has said we would like to
improve access to education (very important as a long-term solution to
income inequality, read my article
on economic basics for more information on exactly why), and impove
America's crumbling infrastructure in addition to providing more
affordable healthcare to more Americans and increasing subsidies and
spending on alternative energy sources. I believe the first two should
take priority, even though the second two are extremely important and I
support them.
In particular, Obama should first focus on infrastructure. An economic
crisis that has hit the construction industry particularly hard is the
perfect time to begin large and desperately needed infrastructure
projects. For one thing, this spending create jobs (short term
positive) and improve infrastructure (long term positive benefits for
the economy). For another, construction costs are likely to be low
during a downturn, especially one that affected construction so
profoundly. America's infrastructure is in very sorry shape. Bridges
are collapsing, blackouts occuring; something must be done, and the
timing is perfect.
Next, Obama should focus on healthcare and education, as these are two
areas that are hitting consumers particulalrly hard, and consumers were
the ones driving the economy (unfortunately financed to a much too
great extent through debt). Reducing costs for consumers and allowing
them more opportunities to get a leg up through education could do a
lot to move the country in the right direction. Admittedly, the
positive effects of education will be seen only long-term, whereas the
expenses will hit immediately. I would still argue Obama might want to
start with education, as plans to provide low-rate student loans,
scholarships, and better school funding will be relatively simple in
comparison to the enormous, complex, and expensive task of healthcare.
I hope Obama will take plenty of time to craft a well thought out
health plan that will be effective and efficient, not a quick one that
will be neither. For this reason, he should take whatever time
necessary to give Americans a healthcare system that actually works.
Last but not least, we come to alternative energy. I have always felt
that energy independence should be one of America's top priorities,
perhaps its #1. So why am I now arguing it be done last? The situation
has changed again. Energy prices are falling, reducing people's desire
for new solutions (alternative energy sources were only third place
among voters' concerns, after the economy (68%) and the Iraq War (12%)3)
and making those solutions more expensive (the government would have to
spend more money to bridge the price gap between alternative energies
and conventional ones). Does that mean he should give it up? No! He
should do what he can to keep things moving for the time being (not
letting current subsidies and whatnot expire), and address the issue as
soon as it possible. The other items have priority.
All in all, it is important to have patience, and that is something
Obama must communicate. Whatever programs he decides to postpone or cut
completely, he must not only choose them wisely, he must communicate to
the American people the reasons for these choices and give them faith
that he will get to them and is doing the job better than anyone else
could. After the election is before the election, after all.
Note: for my commentary on what Obama should do in Iraq, please check
out my article on foreign policy suggestions, planned post date 11/7/08.
1: Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the
American People, September 2001. URL:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html
2: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/29/america/29fiscal.php
3: "Zwei Drittel der US-Wähler: Neuer Präsident muss Wirtschaft sanieren." Der Standard 5 Nov. 2008: 1
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