THE DIGNIFIED RANT
NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS MARCH 2004 ARCHIVES
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“Iraqi WMD Programs” (Posted
We continue to search for WMD in
Mr.
Duelfer said Monday that inspectors had uncovered new
information that Iraq had in place before the war at least the technical
ability to use civilian facilities to quickly produce the biological and
chemical agents needed for weapons.
Still,
Mr. Duelfer said: "We do not know whether Saddam
was concealing W.M.D. in the final years or planning to resume production once
more sanctions were lifted. We do not know what he ordered his senior ministers
to undertake. We do not know how the disparate activities we have identified
link together."
Most disturbing is that the Iraqis involved still aren’t talking. I thought each would be racing to avoid being the last to talk for fear of being prosecuted for war crimes. Apparently, they are silent because they fear prosecution or fear the regime’s people still. They must be induced to talk.
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“Iranian Nuke Programs” (Posted
New intelligence on
A secret nuclear program that is only “possibly” aimed at making atom bombs. Yeah, there’s that secret sewer program and the top secret immunization program and the most secret teddy bear factory program.
Honestly, why else would
We haven’t much time. The article says the Iranians want their first nuke by the end of 2005. If we topple the regime in early 2005, we may stop those madmen.
I hope to God we are targeting Iran’s mullahs next year.
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“Fallujah” (Posted
I am in awe of the respect that Islamists accord the dead:
An enraged mob attacked four American contractors here today, shooting
them to death, burning their vehicles, dragging their bodies through the
downtown streets and then hanging the charred corpses from a bridge over the
The Iraqis bravely mutilated the corpses—the only Americans that they can safely fight.
If the rules of engagement don’t let us shoot those who would string up the dead on bridges, we need a revision real fast.
I’m getting tired of complaining about Fallujah. I think I’ve noted the hostility there since last April and commented on the need for harsher methods there since then. While I’m in full agreement with the need to win hearts and minds; and the need to fight the Baathists and their new Islamist friends with the lowest amount of firepower possible; the soft approach we’ve used in Fallujah has to go. There is no evidence that we’ve impacted the hearts and minds of Fallujah residents. It’s long past time we cracked down hard.
Cut off the city. Cut the phone lines. Issue ration and ID cards. Issue food, water, and electricity and check out everybody who comes to collect their rations. Make the land around the city a free-fire zone and only let people in and out through checkpoints. Impose a strict curfew and arrest or shoot anybody outside during curfew. Sift those left for Islamists and Baathists by going door to door, block by block. How do we expect anybody in Fallujah to help us when the insurgents there are handled with kid gloves? When the insurgents seem to operate with impunity? At some point, we have to admit that this is an enemy stronghold and treat the area as enemy-held and not just filled with misguided people who can be persuaded with good deeds to side with us. This does not negate the fact that most Iraqis are friendly and that this is the right approach in much of the country. In Fallujah, however, we don’t have friends. And if we have them, they are ineffective. Pull any Iraqis who helped us out of there for their safety while we crack down.
Second, I’m ashamed that the Army turned over a city in this condition to the Marines. I worried about our strategy of pulling out of this city and turning over security to the local police and ICDC. In general, we need to do this, but it seemed premature in Fallujah.
The bankruptcy of this approach is all the more apparent when you note that there was no security reaction to the attack on the civilian contractors. No Iraqi police or ICDC. And worse, no Marines responded. How are the Marines to teach the insurgents that they have no worse enemy if the Marines concede the city to the insurgents?
Yeah, I’m far away and I could be way off on this. The Marines seem to think things are going well enough. But I don’t see any indication that we can win hearts and minds by being nice in this cesspool. Grab them by the balls. Their hearts and minds will follow.
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“A Sure Sign of Success” (Posted
Although we had problems getting allies to help in the heavy lifting in the Iraq War, allies are coming:
NATO and the UN are discussing a joint operation to send more
peacekeepers to
It was once said that we needed the legitimacy conferred by
NATO and especially the UN in order to succeed in
I’ll welcome help when offered. But let us not forget cause
and effect when we recall the success of
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“Amazing Logic” (Posted
The British have arrested some would-be bombers:
Police arrested eight men and seized half a
ton of ammonium nitrate, a fertilizer compound used in the Oklahoma City
bombing, in raids by hundreds of officers — one of the biggest anti-terrorism
operations in Britain since the Sept. 11 attacks.
And the reaction of a British Moslem spiritual leader?
Home Secretary David Blunkett,
who has warned for months that London is a prime terrorist target, said the
arrests Tuesday were a "timely reminder" of the threat from al-Qaida. But a Muslim leader warned that the
headline-grabbing dawn raids risked demonizing the whole community.
I see. Arresting bombers could demonize the Moslem community. Plotting to blow up innocents isn’t any risk for demonization, apparently.
And then a local resident gives another opinion of the arrests:
"From what I heard, the police came here at about
Yes. An hour-long operation (I’m guessing) to arrest terrorists was an awful experience for the children who witnessed it. Seeing their elders amassing the ingredients for bombs and talking about death to the infidels was just good citizenship training.
Finally, we have this complaint:
Massoud Shadjareh, chairman of the Islamic Human Rights Commission,
said such high-profile police operations fostered an impression that many
Muslims supported terrorism.
The chutzpah is amazing. First of all, complaining that
arresting terrorists is worse than actually being terrorists would seem to me
the main way the Islamic community in
We have a lot of work to do, quite clearly.
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“The
The long-predicted reaction of Arab public opinion to our wars against Islamists and dictatorships is beginning to be evident:
The
most underreported and encouraging story in the
These
people weren't created by George W. Bush. They are the homegrown answer to a
decadent political order, and they ride a powerful historical current. But they
will tell you frankly: The new U.S. democratization policy, far from being an
unwanted imposition, has given them a voice, an audience and at least a partial
shield against repression -- three things they didn't have one year ago.
"In
the
Like US calls of support to Soviet dissidents and to Polish dissidents, the
"If your governments refer to the
Funny that support from
I may overstate the point, but it seems that rather than creating a thousand bin Ladens, our war on terror has created an undetermined amount of Thomas Jeffersons.
Mostly, I just want to know why thinking Arabs deserve democracy and freedom is cultural imperialism.
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“Hey! Baldwin and Streisand! Pay Attention” (Posted
This is the action of a dictatorial regime:
All told, hundreds of civil servants have been fired over
the past six weeks for signing the recall petition, violating their
constitutional rights to vote, unionists charge. The
number could be in the thousands if doctors at public hospitals and teachers
are counted, they say.
That’s right,
So grow up and recognize that dissenting doesn’t mean everybody else has to fawn over your “courage.”
In Axis of El Vil state
Meanwhile, the senior partner in the axis has paraded relatives of imprisoned activists to deny that their relatives are being mistreated:
Rejecting charges that 75 imprisoned
dissidents were being mistreated,
Uh huh. I’d say the bargain is clear—say nice things or your relatives will be mistreated.
And in the Axis of El Vil default position, leftist rebels/drug dealers and their supposed polar opposite paramilitaries all exhibit the thuggery of vileness that earns one membership.
I fear
And in the farcical aspect of the region,
The 15-nation
Truly, it speaks volumes about this group that they expend efforts to defend a minor league thug when the Cuban human rights travesty carries on in their midst with nary a protest. “The Caribbean Community, raising irrelevancy to higher levels.”®
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“Take Help Where We Can” (Posted
Although
Take our help where we can, I say. This is a long war and we
shouldn’t alienate allies by declaring them unfit because they don’t contribute
as we would wish. Nor should we obsess over the exact level of commitment. Support
will ebb and flow, just as it did in the Cold War (even in our own country),
but the objective must be kept in mind at all times. Heck,
I am curious, however, about how pulling out of the fight in
Ah, nuance. Sadly it escapes my grasp.
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“Victory!” (Posted
NATO expands into the former Soviet Baltic states:
With the addition of
This represents not just a victory over Soviet communism,
solidifying the West’s gains and guarding against a resurgent hostile
I always felt that getting rid of that gray zone would deter
adventurous Russians from one day trying to rekindle the glory days of a Red Empire
by playing in
The Russians may not like it but we are moving east all the
way to the Baltic states, and four NATO F-16s will be based in Lithuania as
part of NATO’s efforts to help bolster the new members’ air defenses. It is
just symbolic, of course, but so too was our defense of
Konstantin Kosachyov, head of the international affairs committee in
Russia's lower house of parliament, said there is "an unfriendly
character" to NATO expansion and that if significant NATO bases appear
near Russia's border, "then we can't exclude that Russia will consider the
possibility of taking corresponding action."
But in the meantime, all is well, and the West gained some
small but brave nations that emerged from Soviet communist domination (well,
Welcome to the best club in the world!
And
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“Shias Rising” (Posted
The rise of the Shias in
"If the empowerment goes relatively smoothly and the
Shiites handle their new power and more significant role well, it can be a
source of both the reassertion of Iraqi Shiism's
leadership role and a source of pride for many Shiites, especially those in the
Gulf," said John L. Esposito of Georgetown University.
And if we market ourselves as the helper of that pride, we
may gain a lot of good will in Shia communities. There could be a Shia realignment
in our favor. And if Shias feel that they deserve
civil rights with American power bolstering them, we may well see a wedge for
reform in Sunni Arab autocracies. And it will be safe for the Sunnis, really,
since they will still be the majority (except in
All the more reason to help the downtrodden Shias of Iran in their struggle with the mullah overlords.
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“Lesson in Freedom” (Posted
Good:
The U.S.-led coalition on Sunday shut down a
weekly newspaper run by followers of a hardline
Shiite Muslim cleric, saying its articles were increasing the threat of
violence against occupation forces.
Sadr’s followers protested:
What is happening now is what used to happen
during the days of Saddam. No freedom of opinion. It is like the days of the Baath," said Hussam Abdel-Kadhim, 25, a vendor who took part in the
demonstration, referring to the Baath Party that
ruled Iraq for 35 years until Saddam Hussein was ousted a year ago.
Sadr and his followers need to understand that “freedom” doesn’t mean you can plot insurrection and murder without being stopped. Stopping torture doesn’t mean that all legitimate and lawful enforcement of order is gone.
Sadr is dangerous and it looks like we are preparing to neutralize him. Getting rid of the formal militias of the factions more friendly to us is a start and justifies action against Sadr’s more dangerous goons. I don’t know whether we do it before June 30 or whether this is a task for the new Iraqi government with our support after turnover. But it must be done.
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“So What?” (Posted
"The Islamic
An official of the Atomic Energy Organization explained
that this referred to centrifuges and said it had been done to build greater
trust with the U.N. agency, the International Atomic Energy Organization, and
with
First of all, there is the question of whether this is true.
We Americans should be pretty good at parsing by now. So they will no longer
produce components and will no longer assemble them. First, let’s note that
they have only suspended voluntarily this limitation. It could end at any time.
Second, maybe they slapped together as many as they could since we started
complaining about this hole in their promises and they will innocently “test”
and “repair” the components already technically “built.” Or maybe they will buy
whatever number they need from sources abroad. Like, oh,
Even if what they say is true all the way around in that no more centrifuges will exist at the end of the day, so what?
It is unclear how many centrifuges
I dare say, if the Iranians have really stopped building centrifuges, the Iranians have all the centrifuges they need to proceed with their plans to build nuclear weapons.
We have little time to deal with
Topple the mullahs.
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“Securing Our Ports—Multilaterally!” (Posted
We are working to secure our ports against attacks. Why?
The
threat they envision is a catastrophic attack on a major American port by a
ship bearing a bomb. Al Qaeda has sought for seven
years to use commercial ships to attack the
A
seaborne terrorist attack could cost thousands of lives and inflict billions of
dollars in damage, maritime security experts say, while closing major American
ports at a cost to world trade measured in tens or hundreds of billions of
dollars.
And so what are we doing?
The
response to this threat is a new law of the sea, spurred by Admiral Loy, passed
by Congress and signed by President Bush 16 months ago. A parallel global code
was adopted days later under American pressure by the United Nations's International Maritime Organization.
The
law and the code set a July 1 deadline for all of the world's ships and ports
to create counterterrorism systems — computers, communications gear,
surveillance cameras, security patrols — to help secure America against an
attack.
The
cost of compliance at home and abroad will be many billions of dollars. Many
American and foreign ports lack the funds to comply. But the cost of not
complying could be steeper still. The law's demands create a stark
confrontation between world trade and national security.
If
a ship, or any one of the last 10 ports it visited, does not meet the new
security standards, it can be turned away from American waters. If a port falls
short, no ship leaving it can enter American harbors. That
means ports, and their nations, can be barred from trading with the
Of course, we’re being “bad” doing this:
"The
developing world is saying that the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the
world is exporting the cost of protecting itself onto some of the world's
poorest countries," said Stephen E. Flynn, a retired Coast Guard commander
and a maritime security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
I guess multilateralism isn’t always good. (But we knew that
already with
The July 1 deadline will not be met. Of course, just mentioning that “developing” countries will have problems will inspire attacks on us that we are heartless to their suffering. So we will have to decide what to do. We need trade. We need security. I don’t know when we get to the objective or what a realistic date is. But some deadline needs to be imposed. And sadly, if we delay the date and we are attacked after July 1 but before the new deadline, the loyal opposition will run with it.
I’m not feeling too guilty that foreign ports need to upgrade to keep one of our port cities from going up in a fireball or choking in a cloud of gas. Their failure means we pay the price in lives. And since our trade is very lucrative for so many nations, I dare say they will pay to retain access.
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“Fallujah Resistance” (Posted
Casualties in
And the Marines are taking casualties, too, as they experience the Sunni triangle:
For the last three days, marines have been patrolling into the center
of the pro-Saddam Sunni Arab town of
I give the Marines credit. I was uncomfortable with the Army
withdrawal from the city center. While in theory, Iraqis must take over
security functions, I didn’t know if the Iraqi police there could handle being
on their own so soon in this hotbed of hostility. I thought harsh measures
needed to be meted out to the Fallujah residents to
compel them to cooperate out of fear since the promise of a new
But the Marines don’t think that Fallujah is safe to leave on its own. And the Marines are now going after the Baathists and Islamists holding out in the city. That is one benefit of fresh forces—they are eager to show their stuff. Rip their hearts out, I MEF. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.
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“
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“Really, Who Else Could?” (Posted
Saddam will have a defense attorney. Prior to his execution, of course:
A French lawyer, known for defending
terrorists and a Nazi leader, said Saturday he will defend Saddam Hussein
At this point, I would have been hugely disappointed if somebody other than a Frenchman had volunteered for the task.
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“So Just What Are We Supposed
to Talk About?” (Posted
The North Koreans have emphasized that they really don’t wish to give up their nuclear weapons:
The
statement carried by Radio
"The
present situation on the Korean peninsula remains dangerous owing to the
reckless moves of the U.S. war hawks and their followers to unleash a war of
aggression against the D.P.R.K. so that a nuclear war may break there
anytime," it said, using the initials of North Korea's official name, the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Mr.
Li said this week that
The
statement rejected the American demand for a "complete, verifiable,
irreversible dismantling" of the country's nuclear programs. Bush
administration officials have repeatedly stated that they will not sign any
agreement with
While
So what exactly did the North Koreans expect to discuss, whether they would accept MasterCard or Visa for the tribute we were expected to pay? Did the North Koreans honestly expect direct talks with us to lead to more money?
And most disturbing, this North Korean outburst happened
after a meeting with the Chinese. Just what are the Chinese telling the North
Koreans? In the long run, I don’t think that it is in
We need to keep slowly tightening the noose around the Pillsbury Nuke Boy’s throat. That gulag with a UN seat will crumble.
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“
Via Winds of Change, this article (how’d I miss it? That’s what I like about blogs. Read other blogs by people interested in the same thing and they will highlight stuff you may have missed) about “disbanding” Iraqi militias:
Members of the two forces -- the Shiite
Muslim Badr Organization and the Kurdish pesh merga --
will be offered a chance to work in
This is not the silver bullet to the problem of keeping religious and regional rivalries from breaking out into combat. But it is a good step. Yes, some will still be around and still in arms in some fashion, but they will be paid from the central government and so in time loyalties will shift a bit. And if in the meantime all Iraqis get used to losing gracefully knowing that death and impoverishment aren’t the price for losing, in time the idea of resorting to force will atrophy.
Plus, agreement to transform the relatively friendly militias in the south and the friendly Kurdish groups in the north will allow that final point noted above, disarming the hostile groups we allowed:
Of
particular concern to the occupation authority and the
"They're
just thuggish, fundamentalist fighters," the
The
official said the presence of the Mehdi Army has made
it more difficult for the Badr Organization to
demobilize because of fears Sadr will use his group
to exert pressure on members of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution.
"If
we can crack that nut and take them out, it would be a turning point," the
official said. "If they're no longer a factor, the Badr
would be more amenable to demobilization."
Sadr has been a thorn in our side.
In a free
But remember, just because we don’t leap to a solution in one bound doesn’t mean that first steps aren’t important.
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“Threat from the Sea” (Posted
In light of warnings that al Qaeda
will use a ship to strike; and in light of the unrest in
Security was tight
early Thursday at petrochemical plants along the
Striking
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“There Will Be No Al Jazeera Film Coverage”
(Posted
Normally, if a Moslems dies in the vicinity of an American,
al Jazeera TV will be all over the event. Nice
close-ups of the wounds will be shown. Plenty of quotes of people
who think the
But eight dead Moslems executed by Islamists?
Al Qaeda-linked
militants have executed eight Pakistani soldiers taken hostage in fighting near
the Afghan border, officials said on Saturday, raising the temperature in an
offensive on Islamic radicals.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for the intensive coverage by AJ we’ve come to know and love.
Remember, all the talk by the Islamists about it being against Islam to kill Moslems only applies to other Moslems killing Islamists. The Islamists freely use the “you’re not a real Moslem when we say you’re not” loop hole. The Pakistanis need to kill these guys—not negotiate.
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“
For
On Friday,
Just a reminder that the Taiwanese can play at being a pretend little country, but that the Chinese really will intervene when the Chinese think the situation challenges them.
For
Meanwhile,
"We think that it is illegal and it is a challenge to
Chinese territorial sovereignty," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan.
The activists were returned to the mainland Friday and
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi
acknowledged that
It may just be little rocks, but the Japanese cannot afford
to just turn them over to a hostile
Of course, we can count on an American academic to, if not
excuse
Despite its assertive statements,
"It's not an offense, it's a defense," Nathan
said. "When challenged across a band of territorially related issues, the
And finally, for the people of
Also Friday,
Critics say such a step could check progress toward the
full democracy the former British colony was promised in the mini-constitution
written for it by
Activists want
Nathan doesn’t like what
"I don't think that they can solve the problem that
they face in
I don’t know what he’s talking about.
In Taiwan's biggest-ever protest, 500,000
supporters of defeated presidential challenger Lien Chan massed in Taipei on
Saturday to dispute his loss as China vowed not to tolerate turmoil on the
island.
As for
The reason: Our European allies might well approve plans to sell
The
repercussions would be disastrous. Not only could
Why
would NATO allies put the
This
rings true, if only because the justifications Europeans proffer for renewed
arms sales are patently fraudulent. Like the
Senior
Chinese diplomats recently held talks with EU officials to persuade them to
lift the ban. They hint that if the EU lifts the sanctions,
Should the Chinese launch a war, more Americans will die and
the Chinese will gain the time they need to conquer
We also need more of our military power in the Pacific. We
need to be able to react effectively and quickly to a Chinese threat to
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“Violence Coming” (Posted
Chavez’s people have shut
down the peaceful means of opposing the increasingly thuggish rule of
Chavez in
There is one last chance for an appeal, apparently, but I can’t imagine there is much hope of that happening. Or if it does, of the ruling being obeyed.
Will the opposition just walk away as their legal means of opposing the government is torn from their hands?
Will Chavez pull in more Cubans to bolster his regime?
The Axis of El Vil could be about to compel our attention.
I hope we’ve been busy bolstering our friends since the ’02 coup attempt.
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“They Always Support the Last Victory” (Posted
Opponents of the Iraq War are still fighting about the decision to go to war. They argue that while they oppose the Iraq War, the acrimony is all the President’s fault for failing to do X or to get Y’s cooperation. If only we could have just stuck with the universally supported war on al Qaeda and the Taliban, they argue, we’d be one big unified country.
But back then, many of the usual suspects argued against going to war against the Taliban:
While
most of the recent media attention has focused on early internal debates about
Iraqi involvement, in fact the early public debate about 9/11 was over whether
Bush was rash in declaring "war" on the terrorists. Most experts and
pundits -- especially among our allies -- still clung to the
"counterterrorism as law enforcement" mind-set. And viewed from that
frame, it was foolhardy to declare war.
For
starters, declaring war seemed to elevate the terrorists to co-combatants,
rather than leaving them as criminals to be dealt with by police dragnet. The
decision to invade
Some even recall the Persian Gulf War with nostalgia as a great coalition when in 1990 and 1991, they opposed the war.
And the Cold War was a struggle we all supported, they say,
conveniently forgetting their opposition to the weapons and strategies to
oppose the
I dare say, it won’t be long before we must debate what to do about Iran, and the “anti-war” side will rush to oppose any forceful action, defending their opposition behind the shield of recalling the unity of the last war—the Iraq War of 2003.
Really, as a general rule, it is only the proposed war to defend ourselves that the loyal opposition opposes, not the past victories. When these people say war is the last resort, they mean it far more literally than anyone could possibly believe.
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“The Threat from the Sea” (Posted
The Islamists still want to kill us in large numbers. Or somebody, at least. The attacks since 9-11 show the Islamists are not too picky about their victims.
And this report is pretty sobering about the likelihood of Islamists attacking a port by sea:
What would happen to global trade if Al-Qaeda or one of its fanatical emulators successfully
detonated a nuclear or radiological bomb in a major port-city? This is one of
the nightmare scenarios for officials in the
Strategypage has this to say, which gives me hope:
The amphibious component of
Even the Canadians are preparing for this next crisis. The
US and
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“The Pre-9-11 Focus” (Posted
Just a day before 9-11, the administration finished its plan to deal with the Taliban and al Qaeda:
Not until the day before the attacks did
This account says it foresaw diplomatic overtures to get bin Laden, and then aid to internal opposition to overthrow them, and if all failed, a military option to overthrow the Taliban with direct action. This was to take place by the end of the administration’s first term of office.
Are the anti-war people going to argue that we also planned on taking down Saddam militarily in the first term?
Seriously, while the administration probably did plan to more actively seek the regime change in Iraq that US law stated was US policy, I think it is fairly obvious that a president who won in such a tight election was not about to embark on a war against Saddam with all the uncertainties that would have entailed. 9-11 is what changed that calculation of risk. And even then, we took down the Taliban and gored al Qaeda first. No fixation on Iraq distracting us from Islamist terrorism.
Please bring on the next plastic turkey.
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“So How Did We Prepare in the 1990s?” (Posted
I was able to listen to part of the 9-11 Commission testimony today. I heard most of former Secretary of Defense Cohen’s testimony. I’ve always respected Cohen. He seems decent. He asserted that it was difficult to gain actionable intelligence and that there was no hesitancy about going after al Qaeda had we gained actionable intelligence.
I think Cohen over-estimates the willingness of the past administration to go after our enemies. The 8-year record in this matter highlights the reluctance he says was not there.
I grant that preemptively going after the enemy before they killed thousands of us at once was problematic. But I don’t think the mindset of going on offense was ever there. I don’t remember any effort to galvanize the American people to go on the offensive.
Indeed, an article in the Washington Post on July 26, 1999, entitled “Preparing for a Grave
New World,” (no link, another paper article I dug up while cleaning out my
office) by Secretary Cohen is a great window on administration thinking nearly
a year and a half after bin Laden’s declaration of
war on us. Nearly a year after the
We cannot afford a case of farsightedness that precludes us from
focusing on threats closer to home, such as the potential danger of a chemical
or biological attack on
At least 25 countries, including
So the administration did see a threat more pressing than rogue computer hackers. The administration also worried about terrorists:
Also looming is the chance that these terror weapons will find their
way into the hands of individuals and independent groups—fanatical terrorists
and religious zealots beyond our borders, brooding loners and self-proclaimed
apocalyptic prophets at home.
So a grave new world was looming. Nutjobs wanted to kill Americans. Nutjob regimes were developing WMD. And the nutjobs might work together.
He went on to describe the horrors of a biological attack and how resources to cope would be overwhelmed.
So what was the administration’s answer to this threat? One which the secretary said, “Someday, one will be real.” Surely, the administration pledged to seek out our enemies wherever they were to kill them before they can strike? No? Then surely they proposed to strengthen law enforcement at home to at least attempt to defend against such psychos? No, again? What then was the answer to this problem?
We have to prepare.
Cohen wrote that preparation alone would deter our enemies
by minimizing the carnage they could inflict with chemicals or bio weapons. He
then offered specifics:
As part of a federal interagency effort launched last year by President
Clinton and led by the National Security Council, the Defense Department is
doing its part to prepare the nation for the catastrophic consequences of an
attack that unleashes these horrific weapons. Because it has long prepared to
face this grim possibility on the battlefield, the military has unique capabilities
to offer in the domestic arena as well.
So we must focus on coping with an attack that sickens or poisons thousands of Americans? Surely, an Op-Ed in the Post by our Defense Secretary would not just fatalistically warn that all we can do to face this threat is to tend to the injured and bury our dead? He goes on:
But merely managing the consequences of an attack is not sufficient. We
must be vigilant in seeking to interdict and defeat the efforts of those who
seek to inflict mass destruction on us. This will require greater international
cooperation, intelligence collection abroad and greater information gathering
by law enforcement agencies at home.
Oh! So close.
Yes, intel is needed but this is all passive playing defense stuff. No hint of seeking out our enemies. Just spotting them, interdicting them, and cleaning up after they douse us with bugs or gas.
Oh. And one more part for those who kept thinking they heard
the word “imminent” from the administration as we debated going to war with
The race is on between our preparations and those of our adversaries. [NOTE: let’s not be hasty and call them “enemies.”] We are preparing for the possibility of a chemical or biological attack on American soil because we must. There is not a moment to lose.
I bring this up not to cast blame.
We’ve known the threats for a decade. We only just started fighting seriously in this administration.
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA23MAR04B
“Crash Naval Building Program” (Posted
Oops. Yesterday I referenced this article, thinking I’d already posted it.
We have a recent report that the Chinese have embarked on a crash
naval building program in order to have the ability to invade
For
the past 18 months, foreign military experts have observed, the military has
concentrated particularly on strengthening its sea power. The main reason, they
say, is to provide the government in
"These
people are building ships like nobody's business," a military attache in
Construction
has begun on about 70 military ships over the last 12 months, including a
number of landing craft, and
The goal?
Foreign military experts in contact with Chinese officers have
concluded that the goal of the Taiwan-oriented military modernization is to
provide the leadership with the ability to inflict some kind of attack should
the need arise, while at the same time making any U.S. intervention to protect
the self-governing island at least a little dangerous, forcing Washington to
think twice.
The article notes that the Pentagon judges that the Chinese have the ability to lift 10,000 troops with their military sealift.
The Chinese need lots of ships soon?
The Taiwanese need to develop a serious sense of purpose very quickly. Us too.
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“Trigger for War” (Posted
The Chinese know that the Taiwanese lean heavily toward
independence or maintaining the status quo. President
Chen has been pushing independence for
But
To
settle these matters, Chen has proposed a new constitution, to be submitted to
the people in a referendum in 2006, and to take effect at the time of the next
presidential election in the spring of 2008. The new constitution, however, is
seen by
The Chinese are on a crash-building program for their navy.
The Chinese want
As I’ve said before, if the Chinese are sincere about
I take the Chinese at their word. They see absorbing
Chen cannot back up his independence talk yet. He needs to
buy time to defend his words. Not that
If we can’t restrain Chen, we may end up in a war with
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“Plastic
Ah, the press has hauled out their next plastic turkey pseudo-scandal. It’s always so exciting waiting for the next bogus charges to come rolling out.
Richard Clarke says that the White House ignored the
Yeah right. He has a book to sell and we’re supposed to buy his charges. Rice has a nice piece taking his charges apart. The bottom line:
Let us be clear. Even their most ardent advocates did not contend that
these ideas, even taken together, would have destroyed al Qaeda.
We judged that the collection of ideas presented to us were insufficient for
the strategy President Bush sought. The president wanted more than a laundry
list of ideas simply to contain al Qaeda or
"roll back" the threat. Once in office, we quickly began crafting a comprehensive
new strategy to "eliminate" the al Qaeda
network. The president wanted more than occasional, retaliatory cruise missile
strikes. He told me he was "tired of swatting flies."
Clarke would have us believe that he warned Bush’s people to no avail and that the failure of the administration to crush al Qaeda in the 8 months before 9-11 is proof of failure to appreciate the threat.
One would think that somebody in the press would ask if the warnings were so dire and the plans so good and the threat so clear, why didn’t the previous administration do something to implement those plans in its 8 years? Why was their resolve so carefully hidden from the public? One would have thought that they only wanted to lob cruise missiles at empty tents and pharmaceutical plants and issue lip-biting apologies for our neglect. Oh, and mourn publicly to show how much they care. Can’t forget that.
It is nice, I admit, to see the loyal opposition arguing for a preemptive strategy. I’m sure there would have been no complaints by Clarke and his friends if we had attacked the Taliban to overthrow them in June 2001.
Just maybe they could have held their tongues. But then when 9-11 happened, the loyal opposition would have claimed we caused the attack. Despite its long planning time. Guarantee it.
And surely, if we had scrutinized every Moslem entering our country, I’m sure that Clarke and his ilk would have somberly agreed that this was a prudent precaution to take given the great threat to us. I hope nobody would suggest that the loyal opposition would complain of a new fascist regime going on a witch hunt against peaceful visitors just trying to better themselves by learning to take off and turn jumbo jets.
Not much of a new plastic turkey. But they never are, are they?
Next.
“This is Disturbing” (Posted
We’ve already seen how 9-11 was based in
This is nice bedtime reading sure to disturb your sleep:
The jihadists
of
And the author notes that this radicalization has nothing to
do with the Iraq War, or the Palestinian cause, or Americans in
I’ve never liked the European policy of keeping their immigrants foreigners even in the third generation. For all our problems, our immigrants become Americans. And if not them, then their children. And these new citizens fight for their new country—not for the sick green flag of a murderous brand of Islam. Whatever our immigration problems, they’re nothing compared to what the Europeans have. And we can at least draw comfort that we gain from our immigrants.
The author worries that the Euro-Islamists really don’t hate
enough to bomb anybody but Americans. He thinks that bombing mere Europeans is
beneath them. Personally, I doubt that the hate of European-born Islamists is
so easily compartmentalized. But maybe the Islamist threat to
As frustrating as it is that
So what if the author’s analysis is right? What if European
Moslems are really our problem and not
Of course, even if the Europeans are not up to an effective counter-Islamism fight at home, it would sure help if the Europeans would at least stop carping and nipping at our heels as we fight the Islamists in the arc of crisis from Africa to Southeast Asia. Not only does this fight protect us, it protects the Europeans.
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“Axis of El Vil” (Posted
Chavez is one. Of course. It goes without saying that Castro is another solid leg. The third? Aristide is tempting but he is too penny ante to be on any list. The new Spanish prime minister is a tempting target but he’s just clueless, really. The third has to be the Colombian leftist/drug dealer insurgents.
These axis members don’t warrant discussion as evil since
they are not threats to us in the same league as
Oh, and “El Vil” means “the vile one” in Spanish. It was just too good not to use. I had to Google it and I appear to be the first to coin it. Heh.
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“Why Did
Yesterday on the way home, NPR had a guest on, Martin Indyk (of the Clinton administration), who was supposed to counter the idea that Libya gave up its entire WMD program—including a nuclear program we didn’t know about—as a result of the Iraq War putting the fear of XVIII Airborne Corps into him.
Indyk related that
He also noted that in 1999,
So,
And only in 2003, after the Iraq War, did
Haven’t we learned from the Iranians and North Koreans that people determined to get nukes are more than willing to negotiate if it buys them time and/or gets them material benefits?
NPR was determined to refute the lesson of strength and ended up supporting the lesson of strength.
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA20MAR04C
“Target: Al Qaeda Offensive” (Posted
The Pakistanis are going hammer and tongs at al Qaeda and Islamists holed up in a number of mud-brick fortresses near the Afghan border. US and Afghan forces on the Afghan side of the border are waiting if any flee.
The thugs made a big mistake holding their position. Several hundred thugs could have been a serious problem in small groups fighting as irregulars. It could have taken years to run them down.
Instead, perhaps because they are defending a “high value target” (Probably Al-Zawahri), they are fighting a conventional battle. In this fight, they are just a crappy infantry battalion taking on a much larger conventional force. Big mistake on their part. Even if the high value target escapes, killing or capturing so many Islamists in one battle will be a big victory for the good guys.
I am amused that the thugs are warning us to stop chasing them or they’ll attack us (dang. Can’t find the link). It was good for a laugh but they are a bit off in their lesson: if we stop chasing them, then they will attack. This is a big lesson in all warfare. When an enemy is beaten, pursue them and destroy them ruthlessly. False compassion may lead you to hold off but if they do not surrender, they must be killed. If they are not pursued and killed, one day they will stop running, regain their courage, pick up their weapons, and rejoin the fight.
Remember that the Taliban made this mistake with the
Chase down the Taliban and al Qaeda while they are running. They are easier to kill when running. And if we fail to kill them, they will attack us again.
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“
Last night one year ago, the first strike of the Iraq War commenced. Mark Steyn really says it all.
And I stand by my posts in February 2003 where I laid out the case for war as I saw it. The first. The second.
I know that some say we are losing more people now than
before 9-11 (conveniently skipping that one day, of course). I just wonder what
these people would have said in 1942. Goodness, we lost more military people at
the hands of the Germans and Japanese than we had in 1941. Wasn’t this proof we
were making things worse? And in 1943, we lost even more than the prior
year. Sure, we knocked
We have lost fewer than 400 killed in action in
One year on, let the “peace protesters” whine that Iraqis are free. That they are no longer tortured and raped and robbed of their nation’s riches. My God, consciences that could still protest after all we have learned about Saddam are truly unplugged from reality.
It was a good war.
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA20MAR04A
“Al Qaeda Command and Control” (Posted
Is al Qaeda issuing commands?
The Islamic militant group that claimed
responsibility for last week's Madrid train bombings has warned that its next
targets could be the United States, Japan, Italy, Britain or Australia, an
Arabic newspaper reported Thursday. …
In its statement, Abu Hafs al-Masri said it was calling a truce in
I always thought of al Qaeda as more of a brand name that essentially franchised its name to thugs willing to kill in the name of the organization. Bin Laden had some company-owned terrorists but he has been put out of action. Local groups who love the brand name kill innocents happily enough, but will they really follow this guidance? Sure, the Islamists would love to hit the named countries. I’m sure they’d love to hit countries they’ve named in the past. Or any others if they can.
And most importantly, can statements like this really
restrain any Spain-based terrorists? Won’t they want to strike again despite
the promised withdrawal from
If the Islamists fail to strike again in
Oh, and we may be on to something around Afghanistan:
Pakistani forces believe they have cornered
and perhaps wounded Osama bin Laden's
deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri,
in a major battle near the Afghan border, an area where many believe the
world's most wanted terrorist has been hiding, three senior Pakistani officials
said Thursday.
Some paramilitaries down there are
fighting awfully hard to hold some nondescript mud-brick compounds.
I knew I had a good feeling about
this new effort.
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA18MAR04C
“Chavez Plays Hardball” (Posted
One third of
This will get ugly. I hope we’re prepared to support our friends down there.
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA18MAR04B
“North Korean Bargaining Position” (Posted
I love it when the North Koreans open their mouths.
We’re supposed to be negotiating with
North Korea says it has reprocessed 8,000 spent nuclear
fuel rods in a process that could yield enough plutonium for several nuclear
bombs, in addition to the one or two it is believed to already possess.
That the North Koreans pledged this ten years ago is not relevant, apparently, to the position of some that we must pay. The outline of the deal is supposedly this:
But then the North Koreans go and open their mouths. The
appeasers over here could do so much better if the North Koreans would just let
them do their public speaking. Check out
"What has happened in
So, basically,
Oh wait, there isn’t anything in return since they said that they really don’t trust us to promise not to invade.
So let’s see, what is the revised North Korean negotiating
position? Ah, yes, shell out money to
The Pillsbury Nuke Boy is tiresome. Squeeze him, slowly, and his regime will crack.
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“
Applebaum notes that we can’t just ignore the impact of our war on terror on our European allies. As she notes:
We may still "win" in
They may not be militarily significant but collectively, the European states are part of the West we defend. And if such a big part of the West drifts away? What will we be defending? What new burdens will we then carry?
Yes, we must beat the terrorists and destroy the states that might give them the means to kill millions of us. The mission must not be compromised for the coalition. Process must never triumph or results in a struggle with such high stakes.
To say this does not mean that we cannot simultaneously fight to maintain our European alliances. It is too easy to just say they are wimps or Venusians or whatever, and go our own way. Shoot, I find it very easy to do with the French. But as we take care of our objectives, we should not skimp on the effort to smooth ruffled feathers. Brooks notes that the Spanish election will constrain our actions as the Europeans pull back from active measures to fight terror. Note the tone of resignation to enduring further Islamist attacks that the Europeans display!
But although the politicians, the police and
the people of
Where is the determination to kill the bastards first? Why can’t the Europeans see that we can’t just double the guards and hope we can cope with the inevitable suffering?
Brooks notes that we are not guiltless in this drift:
Nor
is
It is important to keep
But instead of a hostile power taking over the continent we must worry about the Europeans turning hostile from within. We must fight this battle. And the State Department must take the lead in fighting this battle. We could start by reversing our support for European integration. The EU bureaucracy is hostile toward us and so why on earth would we encourage this? Then go on to explaining our policies again and again and again.
And it is not a hopeless fight. There are signs of hope in
all the European states—old and new. There are even
hopeful signs in
Thousands of protesters accused
The State Department has a role in this war. It is failing. And the administration is failing by not making it work for us.
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“Shame!” (Posted
Do the French have no shame? That they would team up with
This is particularly interesting:
French President Jacques Chirac, keen to strengthen ties with China and
win French business a firm footing in the rapidly growing market, sided with
How shocking!
Oh yeah, no
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA16MAR04C
“Tipping Point?” (Posted
The referendum on whether Chavez will remain
dictator/president/psycho of
Will the court keep the path of peaceful constitutional change open? Or will it leave the opposition no legal means to oppose Chavez’s increasingly thuggish rule?
And if the court gives the green light to the referendum, what will Chavez do?
The world’s middling problems are never so kind as to shut the heck up while we cope with the big problems.
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“Will European Appeasement Help Us after
While it is certainly important to know what motivated the
Spanish voters to vote the socialists into power, Islamists will conclude that
they did indeed overthrow an American ally by killing enough Spanish citizens.
Indeed, many leftists in
The new Spanish government lifts the spirits of the “anti-war”
side because the socialists have pledged to pull
But what if the European fear of similar “retribution” leads
them to pressure
Really. Hear me out.
If
The coming sovereignty turnover, the introduction of an
official NATO role, and even the return of the UN for limited purposes may all
provide cover
for Spain to keep troops in
"Even this incoming Spanish government would not be
willing to...abandon
Let me make it clear,
I’m just saying that European fear might work for us this time. Sheer idle, contrarian speculation, of course, but who knows?
And as a bonus, maybe those who believe in a European-style,
police-based war on terror will realize that sitting on the defensive as the
Spanish voted to carry out is exactly the strategy that failed
Make our enemies fear what we will do to them.
So sue me, I’m an optimist.
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“Press the Enemy” (Posted
We are pushing
hard in Afghanistan. The increased troop levels are basically special forces formerly occupied in
The rumors of a spring offensive said Rangers and an
aircraft carrier were to be deployed to go on the offensive in
We are moving in
But a
Allies such as
I’ve urged some type of offensive soon to maintain the
momentum of attacking the enemy. We cannot let our people or our enemies forget
we are still coming after the Islamists. Yes, avoid the really tough ones like
I liken a
We are at war. This is no time to rest on our laurels.
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“The
The Afghan campaign, with its terrible fighting through the Islamic holy season, was supposed to ignite the Arab street in a frenzy of anti-American violence that would pull down nominally pro-American rulers and enflame anti-American states into active violence against us.
The Iraq War, too, though it did ignite members of the
But now, we see the street stirring:
Ever since the United States invaded Iraq (news
- web
sites), some Arab leaders have been acting out of character, talking about
big changes in the works and using all the proper keywords: democracy,
transparency, choice, human rights. …
The Arab world's baby steps toward reform actually began
after the Sept. 11 attacks, when some senior Arab figures recognized the link
between the absence of democracy and the rise of religious fanaticism.
It picked up pace after Baghdad fell to the American-led
coalition in April and Bush's grand design for the Middle East became clearer.
In November, Bush declared that Western governments had
been wrong for decades in backing undemocratic, corrupt leaders in the
This is where the enemy center of gravity is. We must stay on the offensive. Militarily to crush the current enemies—state and non-state enemies—who want to kill our people and who seek the capacity to count our dead in mega-deaths.
But we must also push for rule of law, economic growth, and democracy (in that order more or less) in authoritarian states that give their people poverty and no hope for change except through Islamism.
This need to go on the offensive is one obvious answer to Islamist terrorism and I am forever astounded that the left in this country cannot see this. They do not want us to go on the offensive and they do not want us to be able to effectively stand on the defense by their opposition to the Patriot Act (actually, they oppose their fevered delusions of what the act does). Can they not see the problem of opposing both? And I’m not even going into discussing the folly of trying to successfully win the war on terror while ceding the initiative to the enemy by remaining on the defensive.
Victory, with safety and civil rights in our country the objective, depends on winning on the offensive in the recruiting grounds of the Islamists and their state backers that could give them the means of killing millions of us.
Stirrings of freedom in the Arab street are one sign that the offensive is having an effect.
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“Crud” (Posted
The Spanish may
pull their troops out of
Spain's incoming leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Monday he would probably pull Madrid's troops
out of the "disastrous" occupation of Iraq (news
- web
sites), in a major swing from his predecessor's pro-American foreign
policy.
They were also scheduled to take command of the
multi-national division now commanded by
Should
This is a disturbing development if it goes forth as it
appears it will. The Spanish election and decision will be interpreted by the
Islamists as a lesson that terror works. And not just against other states. Sure,
we can probably look forward to attacks here as our enemies gain added motives
to get Bush out of office, but
Running from the war will not save
I hoped
I still mourn with the Spanish for their dead. Luckily, however, we are not all Spaniards.
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“Did We Just Lose
The Spanish opposition won
today’s election. It appears that a public backlash against the government
for supporting
Once again, we see that an attack on a country does not just inspire the public to rally around the flag and close ranks against the foreign attacker. I’d hoped this time I’d be wrong and that the Spanish public would take a gut check and fight on.
Perhaps they still will after this venting at the polls is over.
I hope so. Hiding will not save them. I know they took a
terrible blow on the 11th. I grieve with them. They did not deserve
this attack. But do the Spanish really think the Islamists will forgive the
Spanish for expelling the Moslems from
"This is part of settling old accounts with
The Spanish are a target. And we didn’t make them a target.
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“I Defend My Honor—And Strategic Thinking” (Posted
The British organization Military Policy Research lists the articles in the January 1999 Army Magazine. Mine was one of them and it highlights it by quoting from my article, “A Total Army for Total War: The Guard Divisions Role”:
"Amazingly, nobody
considers whether we may need to fight a large-scale war as we did in 1861-65,
1917-18 or 1941-45... While a peer competitor is not anticipated in the near
term, reserves capable of fighting a larger-than-MTW threat must be
maintained... Counting on a safe environment for the next two decades is itself
too optimistic (p10)... The
The following commentary savaged my essay:
The threat is conjured up in
purely abstract terms, without the slightest effort at substantiation. If the
author sees reason to fear all-out war, he should have the gumption to state
it, not indulge in sarcastic 'amazement' that nobody else has seen fit to do it
for him. To argue for a particular level of reserve component training and
readiness is one thing; to preclude any attempt to match national military
power to defensive needs, on the basis of such reasoning as this is quite
another! The fact that this article tied for third prize in the 1998 Army
Magazine essay contest suggests a deficiency of strategic vision in some US
Army circles.
I don’t know when this was written. I discovered the brief critique in March 2004. I have a web page, so I will respond to what is stated.
I must wonder if the reviewer read my article. The reviewer complains that I spoke of the threat in only abstract terms and states I may not have had the “gumption” to write that I feared all-out war. The reviewer felt I was indulging in sarcasm for expressing amazement that we were not preparing for a larger war.
The reviewer misses my point completely.
I was not speculating about any particular threat. I was
not, for example, hinting that we might have to fight
In addition to worrying about strategic surprise, I was concerned that even a predicted major theater war could stress our assumptions if we faced setbacks. If we endured heavy casualties and needed fresh forces, our theoretical ability to respond to a second war would be severely crippled. The need to rotate fresh divisions would require combat-focused Guard divisions to preserve our strategic reserve and deter a second war.
This was also the time of a peacekeeping focus for our Army and I was worried that assuming that the worst case scenario we might face was a short, decisive, and virtually bloodless major theater war was hubris. I thought I could see the beginnings of the victory disease being incubated and that a peacekeeping mindset would set us up for defeat in the initial battle of a war against a determined foe. I thought it would be wise to train and prepare for something worse than Desert Storm II (smaller version). The worst consequence of preparing for a tough enemy would be that we’d win faster and with fewer casualties if we did not face anything worse than our anticipated enemies.
Finally, I wanted the Guard included in our war plans because I value the bridging role of our reserve forces. Going to war should require the Guard to promote debate and to make sure that our leaders believe going to war is worth calling up our civilian reservists.
Is all this is a deficiency of strategic thinking? The
strategic surprise did indeed take place on 9-11. I’d say that the war on
terror has shown that our assumptions about how much landpower
we need were inadequate. Instead of a rapid, contained victory followed by a
fast return home, we face a generation of potential conflict. We do indeed need
ground forces to rotate troops through
I’d say the deficiency in strategic thinking—or at least imagination—rests elsewhere.
Still, I confess that getting ripped is kind of fun. It at least showed somebody was paying attention.
The synopsis as I wrote it is here.
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“More Rallying Around the Flag” (Posted
More foreigners resisting US pressure by standing with their thug regime.
Well, no. Once again the opposition seems to be immune to
the nuanced thinking that says
Friday's incident represents the most
violent wave of protests in
Eighty dead according to the Kurds.
AP has a story, too. This says the death toll is much smaller but notes:
Spontaneous demonstrations are extremely unusual in
Don’t these Syrian people know they’re supposed to resent
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“Thugs Sending For Lawyers—Part Two” (Posted
Using laws to protect themselves when they themselves would not be bound them is standard operating practice for dictators.
The government of President Hugo Chavez said
Wednesday it will file
a complaint with the Organization of American States, accusing the
This can work. Because of people, nations, and international organizations that believe process is more important than substance. And for states that do not pose mortal threats to us, this can work.
But dabbling with terrorists, colluding with Castro, and threatening our oil imports can combine to elevate the threat.
And the
We shall see.
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“It’s a Three-fer!” (Posted
Via NRO, this article has the goods on the idiot who acted for the Iraqi government is an effort to undermine US policy and aid the Baathists (while eagerly noting that she is White House chief of staff Card’s distant cousin, the national press ignores her pedigree):
Susan
Lindauer, 41, of Takoma
Park, Md., allegedly met with Iraqi Intelligence Service members during visits
from October 1999 through March 2002 to the Iraqi Mission to the United Nations
in New York City; met with Iraqi officials in Baghdad in February or March
2002; and passed documents to an undercover FBI agent with whom she'd talked
about helping post-war Iraqi resistance groups.
Staffer to left-wing members of Congress, journalist, and “peace activist.” Wow! Three for one!
Just a coincidence, I’m sure. No need for the press to mention her background. I mean, if she was a gun-owning, white supremacist, investment banker, I bet the press would have gone into long essays about how those characteristics made it pretty much inevitable that she’d betray her country.
The only way it could better is if she’s a Vegan, or works for Alec Baldwin, or something similarly odd.
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA13MAR04D
“Iraqi Birthday” (Posted
With the blogosphere prompt with expressions of support for our friends who suffer at the hands of terrorists, it would be nice to have something positive to celebrate.
I’d say
According to the US State Department, “Official Iraqi
representation and consular service in the
Permalink to this post: http://www.geocities.com/brianjamesdunn/TDRFAMAR2004ARCHIVES.html#TDRNSA13MAR04C
“Saudi War on Bush?” (Posted
The American Thinker, via Instapundit, thinks the Saudis are waging a silent war on President Bush in the hopes that a Kerry presidency will be more pliant:
By restricting OPEC output since the end of
hostilities in
On the surface it is plausible. The Saudis used the oil
weapon after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War to punish the
Certainly, the Saudis aren’t doing us any favors by not
turning on the spigots, but is it a silent war? The Saudis need cash to keep
them in the lifestyles to which they have become accustomed. And they gained a
pretty hefty habit in the days when oil prices where sky high. And it isn’t
just for fun that they need this money. They need to spread money around to
keep themselves in power. And with restless Shias in
Plus, the author highlights the monetary ties of many Americans to the Saudi government. The Saudis buy influence and this is clear. But after buying such friendship, wouldn’t the Saudis be more likely to seek to preserve their rule by working through these bought-and-paid-for ex-officials? Isn’t counting on a Kerry administration to be nicer to them a little risky? Haven’t the loyal opposition types hammered Bush since 9-11 over “coddling” the Saudis? Wouldn’t it be safer to rely on the paid friends rather than provoking a cowboy president who might just send in the 82nd Airborne to seize the oil fields rather than just sit and take it? We wouldn’t invade over mere price, but lots of people believe the “nuanced’ European interpretation of US policies and would believe anything bad about us.
We also have to ask whether the Saudis can really make things that bad for us. Can they really drive up prices enough to hurt our huge economy and deprive Bush re-election?
National Review Online describes the decreasing role of oil inputs to our economic outputs:
The average national price of gasoline has risen from $1.47 per gallon
in mid-December to $1.74 in the latest week. This surge has reawakened fears
that increased energy costs will put the brakes on economic growth. There are
bound to be some negative effects from the higher prices, but they do not pose
a serious hurdle for the economy.
Energy's role in the economy has changed substantially since the oil
shocks of the 1970s. The economy consumed 16.7 thousand BTUs (or standard
units) of energy per real dollar of gross domestic product in 1975, but that
dropped to about 9.4 thousand in 2003, about a 44 percent decline. The drop is even
more impressive when the energy source is petroleum, which fell from 7.6
thousand BTUs in 1975 to about 3.7 thousand in 2003 — a more than 50 percent
decrease.
Not to say that higher prices don’t have an impact. Higher prices for inputs are higher inputs. But thus far, the author believes the effect is a “light braking” rather than a skid-to-a-halt impact.
Plus, this chart (and for the life of me I cannot remember the Hat Tip for this—I did not find it. Sorry) puts oil prices in perspective. In constant dollars, oil prices are not sky high. Mind you, I’d still pressure the Saudis to lower prices. Lower prices would help but we should not panic. We don’t have to like the recent increases, but how can this level be crippling? Coupled with the reduced oil input, the actual cost of gas is much less. I’m sure I’d be squawking more if my gas mileage was as bad as 1970s cars.
Certainly, oil pumped from
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“3-11” (Posted
My heart goes out to the people of
As if we needed any more evidence that we are at war with
scum committed to killing as many of us as they can. Some, sadly, will claim
Actually, some people do need to be reminded. As even the French briefly realized after 9-11, we are all Americans now. We are all Spaniards. We are all Australians. We are all Iraqis. We are all Moroccans. We are all Indonesians. We are all the “other” who are unworthy of life in the black hearts of the Islamists who have room in their universe for only the pure Moslems as they define “pure.”
The Spanish response of anger rather than a maddening “what did we do to deserve this” response was heartening.
The American people stand with the Spanish people as friends and allies. As we prosecute the war, we cannot tire of fighting. We cannot forget that only the means to kill us in the millions are lacking in our enemies—not the will. Recognize that we have enemies. Pursue our enemies. Kill them. Make their families grieve over their bodies. Make the Islamists fear us more than they fear Allah’s “commands” to kill the infidels.
We are at war. Is this not clear enough?
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“Lessons in Sophisticated, Big-Brained, Diplomacy” (Posted
The
Those wise in the ways of nuance know that this will be
appreciated by the “moderates” in
Sadly, the Iranians announce they will proceed with enriching Uranium:
Iran said Wednesday it would resume uranium
enrichment and warned it may quit cooperating with the International Atomic
Energy Agency, which it accused of kowtowing to
Big, sophisticated, European-trained brains understand the nuances of this diplomatic victory.
I am truly in awe.
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“Mercenary Flight” (Posted
Ok, I knew it wasn’t likely that they were tourists.
They may be mercs.
Mugabe says he may execute them.
I eagerly await the outrage of the world community at this
high-handed decision. I mean, the death penalty? How
primitive. I’m sure the African Union will have something to say by way of
condemnation. No. Maybe not. They’re all busy trying
to work up good
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“Send Money, Guns, and Lawyers” (Posted
This truly torques me off. Thug dictators terrorize their people in violation of the flimsy domestic protections offered by their laws and constitutions and contrary to international norms of decency. Then, they thwart the international community, which treats pieces of paper as real protections, as the international community futilely bleats about the thugs latest outrages.
Aristide is just one of the pettier thugs to follow this route. He even has attorneys!
Aristide believes he is still president of Haiti and will
use the courts in his fight to return home, American lawyer Brian Concannon said in
In the
Another American lawyer for Aristide, Ira Kurzban, wrote to Attorney General John Ashcroft (news
- web
sites) asking the Justice Department (news
- web
sites) to investigate the circumstances of Aristide's Feb. 29 departure.
Sadly, his allies in this country are nothing new in the history of foreign thugs who can count on fools in this country to idealize their favorite thug. The fools will ignore the body count as long as they are able to pretend that the thug has a glorious vision. Or, in a pinch, if the thug is just anti-American.
And
And the African Union, bored with having nothing to do after solving Africa’s festering problems of AIDS, civil war, dictatorships, genocide, corruption, and poverty, have decided that it must do something to erase the injustice of having American Marines, French Foreign Legionnaires, and Canadian soldiers preventing massacres and giving the Haitians a chance—however slight—to have a decent future:
Now in exile in the
The 53-member AU, which is headquartered in
Clearly, that must not stand.
I say the precedent that is so dangerous to the AU is that if you are thuggish enough in your rule, US Marines may escort you from the premises.
We should have shot Aristide’s sorry ass. Or
dropped him in the
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“Rally ‘Round the Flag, Boys!” (
One complaint that the “anti-war” side likes to make is that
we should talk to thug regimes and avoid siding with the opposition because
that will “play into the hands of the hardliners.” Their theory is that any
words of encouragement by the
We know this is wrong. After all, did 9-11 cause the loyal opposition to abandon their hatred of the administration and demand the blood of those who killed 3,000 of our fellow citizens? Well, no. In fact, it caused the opposition to wonder what we did to deserve this attack.
And we now have yet another
indication that our actions can embolden dissidents and give them hope—not
taint them! Not drive them to rally around the local dictator rather than
accept the support of
Aktham Naisse, who leads the Committees for the Defense of
Democratic Liberties and Human Rights in Syria, said Monday's sit-in outside
parliament was a success even though police quickly detained all the
demonstrators.
"As activists, we were able to send a clear message to
the Syrian street, and to international public opinion, that we are serious
about our demands and program," Naisse told The
Associated Press in an interview. "We embarrassed the Syrian authorities which, unfortunately, showed they are unable and unwilling
to meet our demands."
This is just another reminder that confronting our enemies doesn’t just automatically strengthen the hardliners and weaken our friends. Have we learned nothing? We give heart to the democratic resistance when we stand up to thugs.
I wish foreign attacks inspired a rally around the flag
effect more thoroughly here.
I guess foreigners who oppose their dictatorial governments aren’t nearly as nuanced as our own opposition to our elected government.
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“Stop the Presses!” (Posted
The
A cargo plane impounded in
Not that he
wouldn’t deserve it.
And I would like to note that we
get criticized for picking up unlawful combatants off the battlefields of
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“The Evidence We Alienated All Our Allies?” (Posted
The charge my some is that we’ve alienated our allies and
that we couldn’t expect any of our former friends to come to our aid. Senator Kyl answers that we are getting help. Most recently in
Well,
This is a problem for opponents of
Unless the “anti-war” critics are trying to suggest that all these countries are diabolically sucking us into a massive trap by embarking on a campaign of feigned cooperation until they can betray us with the big sting, their arguments that we have alienated the world are just silly.
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Things seemed to be going well in
Recently, we changed our strategy to spread our forces out in the remaining troublesome provinces to do classic counter-insurgency by mingling with the population, doing civic improvements, patrolling, and otherwise reassuring the locals to cooperate with us. It seemed a more ambitious strategy to me.
Well, apparently, the situation has improved
tremendously and this may be why we have the confidence to spread out and
stamp out the smoldering pro-Taliban sentiment. Our top general in
"But
we should be clear about the fact that the war against al Qaeda
and the Taliban as fighters is virtually, almost complete," he said in
testimony to a Belgian Senate committee.
"If
you were to color code
Jones
said last month after briefings at the headquarters of the U.S.-led Operation
Enduring Freedom in
I have to believe he’s serious. Normally, I’d expect senior officers to be cautiously optimistic at best. His willingness to proclaim such success is a heck of a good sign.
My good feeling about nailing bin Laden may be quite well placed.
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“Casualties in
I was happy to note that our casualties in
While good news, I worried that we were possibly pulling back from an offensive posture to gain a respite from the daily death toll. But my nagging doubts were for nothing according to Strategypage.
Training, adaptability, and intelligence have rocked the Baathists back on their heels. The result?
A lot of Sunni Arabs, the usual participants in these attacks, simply
won't take on American troops any more. Too many attackers have been caught in
the act and killed. Making attacks at night is particularly scary for Iraqis,
because of the abundance of night vision devices the Americans have, and use
enthusiastically. Moreover, at night you cannot see the UAVs
circling overhead with their night vision videocam
pointed earthward.
Keep the pressure on the Baathists and hunt down the Islamists.
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“This is Curious” (Posted
This story is odd:
Zimbabwean authorities have seized a
U.S.-registered cargo plane carrying 64 "suspected mercenaries" and
military equipment, the Home Affairs minister said Monday.
I seriously doubt we are up to anything. There are plenty of
mercenary companies out there and I suppose it is possible we or somebody
friendly hired some people for action in the region. But if so, I can’t believe
we’d fly through
Could just be somebody’s new bodyguard detail making an ill-chosen stopover.
Quite curious.
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“Too Annoying to Remain in Office” (Posted
Seriously, Chavez is just too annoying to remain in office. Look at what that Castro-wannabe is saying:
President Hugo Chavez on Sunday vowed to
freeze oil exports to the
The
Chavez accused the
He added that "
Sure, invading
But that doesn’t mean we are helpless. Since we are being accused of interfering, let’s go for it. Support the opposition openly with diplomatic and financial backing.
Just remember, in light of our failure to back the last coup that momentarily ousted Chaves, that when you strike a king, kill him.
And don’t let the yahoo snipe at us from exile. We pay a
price when we are nice to thugs. Like
one is doing. No good deed goes unpunished, eh? Seriously, if we can get
rid of Chavez we should do it. Some look at Aristide and complain
we are not living up to our commitment to democracy in
Aristide's
Yet, the world recognized Aristide as
The author confuses recognition with democracy.
Let’s not protect Chavez.
Hmm. What does my 1999-2000 The Military Balance say about
An army of 34,000 with 27,000 of them conscripts. They have 81 old French AMX-30 main battle tanks, 75 World War II-era M-18 tank destroyers better suited to sitting in front of American Legion posts, 30 AMX-13 French light tanks that last saw successful use in the 1967 Six Day War, and 80 Scorpion 90s. British light armor, I believe. Some wheeled APCs and some artillery. The navy has 5,000 marines plus 6 frigates and 2 submarines. I rather doubt they are more than nominally seaworthy. The air force has about 50 F-16s, Mirages, and F-5s. This could be the most formidable branch, but a couple carriers should be able to embark sufficient aircraft to destroy the Venezuelan air force and quickly nullify it if necessary. B-2s might destroy them in advance.
Now I’m not saying it is wise to go to war to overthrow Chavez. I think we should apply non-military means to get rid of this thug.
But somebody needs to explain to El Maximum Dope’ that the Venezuelan military is not up to the task of waging war for 100 hours let alone 100 years.
Of course, if we find that Chavez is playing with the Devil and opening up his country to Islamists and Castro, Chavez could promote himself from tinpot dictator status too petty to address up to actual threat worthy of dealing with.
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“Could We Do Better Today?” (Posted
The Iraqis agreed to an interim constitution. The impression I’ve gotten from some commentary on NPR tonight on the way home is that this was darned lucky. We were on the edge of disaster and boy is Bush lucky he escaped this disaster.
Please.
This was a wonderful occasion and the document is the best you’ll see in the Arab world. And even better, it has the best chance of actually being followed. Much work remains to be done but it is indeed a great day.
I wonder how well we would do if we had to write a new constitution today?
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“I’m Getting a Good Feeling About This”
(Posted
According to TV news Sunday, the Pakistanis came close to nabbing Bin Laden recently. I’ve long thought Osama was dead. In the last couple months I’ve started to think he might still be kicking. Which makes his failure to hit us again a pretty big deal rather than being the natural consequences of being dead.
With recent comments that capturing Osama too close to the election or too close to the conventions or too close to Martha’s appeal, or whatever, I sure hope we aren’t putting our troops in danger taking risks trying to get him now to forestall opposition complaints of timing. It has taken time for the Pakistanis to get their troops into the tribal areas without provoking resistance. Now that the Pakistanis have bribed or blackmailed the tribal leaders into cooperation, we can seriously beat the bushes for al Qaeda remnants.
But as I said, I’m feeling strangely optimistic about the prospects of Osama’s capture soon.
And capture will be very humiliating for the Islamists after his lengthy inaction.
I think we’ll get that waste of oxygen soon. Personally, I hope we shoot him on sight.
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“9-11 References” (Posted
With all due respect to the personal losses, those complaining about the brief image of Ground Zero in a Bush ad are making arguments that are worthless to me. I won’t go into the politics of those complaining. Others have.
I will settle for noting that this was an act of war against
our entire country—not a crime against their loved ones. That’s why the
taxpayers of the entire country are paying them millions in compensation.
That’s why the taxpayers are paying tens of billions to
Some say that this is the equivalent of showing bodies of
our soldiers returning from
Let the opposition use images of 9-11 and argue they will do better.
September 11 was an attack on our entire nation and if we aren’t supposed to discuss the proper response to the attack and how we can prevent even worse attacks, I don’t know what is.
Pupil testing, I suppose.
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“Pillsbury Nuke Boy Stalls for Time” (Posted
Good. I think time is on our side with
In the past few weeks, speeches by the
The apparent enthusiasm for Mr Kerry may reflect little more than a "better the
devil you don't know" mentality among the North Korean apparatchiks.
Rather than dealing with President George W. Bush and hawkish officials in his
administration,
We want to delay to let them rot and deal with more pressing
concerns; and
Counting on a better deal with another president is a major mistake on their part.
But shoot, who knows, maybe we will get stupid again and save them from themselves. It’s always possible, Heaven forbid.
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“The Headline is Misleading” (Posted
The headline says “Taiwan Leader Proposes to Slash Military.”
This is what the
"We hope to cut the number of people in the army from
385,000 to 270,000," Chen said Saturday in a
30-minute televised address.
This isn’t quite “slashing.” This is really the recognition
that
Indeed, one could have the exact
same headline for
Second, the article notes that the Chinese plan to
cut their army by hundreds of thousands. It would have been just as
misleading to say the Chinese are slashing their army.
And third, it is ludicrous to
call these water purification troops “elite” as the article does. They may very
well be well-trained, but elite? Please. “Elite” is a term used by so many
reporters who have no idea what elite troops are.
But back to
“Reforming” their military would be a better word.
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“This is the Problem with Exile” (Posted
When dictators escape justice they can cause problems for
us. Saddam’s existence motivated Baathists after the
fall of
Now, with Aristide sitting in exile instead of sitting in prison or a grave, his supporters still dream of returning him to power:
Meanwhile, Aristide's Paris-based lawyer said the former
president was forced from office. Attorney Gilbert Collard said Aristide told
him he did not resign, adding to his supporters' hopes he might return to
Aristide, who remains in secluded asylum in the Central
African Republic, acknowledged writing "a note
indicating that if his departure prevented a bloodbath, he would
leave," Collard said. But the ex-leader also said that "if he had to
resign, he would have done it according to the constitution and not with the
push of a foreign power."
Collard said he was working with a U.S.-based lawyer to try
to determine whether the
Is this what our world has come to? A thug is forced from
power after having demonstrated his absolute contempt for justice, rule of law,
and good governance, and the thug is consulting with attorneys to see if every
T was crossed and every I dotted? Is it truly possible
that
The Libyans came clean on WMD when they saw what happened to the Baathists and their master, Saddam. Fear prompted Khadaffi’s abandonment of WMD. Would fear of comfy exile have motivated him? We’d still be arguing over the evidence instead of knowing this for example:
Chavez is worrying about the US as he struggles to maintain his worthless regime in power.
How many thugs will quake in fear if Aristide’s ouster is treated as an outrage of international law?
I wasn’t too keen on the intervention before we went in, but I’d have to remove my brain stem to ever believe that what we did was immoral. We should be getting praised for getting a petty dictator out of the way.
Truly, thugs worldwide will sleep a little better at night if they think we are hamstrung in dealing with their misdeeds by pieces of paper that protect them. Thug regimes ignore the pieces of paper that protect their victims, whether domestic or in other countries. The thugs should get no better consideration.
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Via Andrew Sullivan, this complaint in MSNBC that we could have
bombed the guy who carried out the
In June 2002,
The Pentagon quickly
drafted plans to attack the camp with cruise missiles and airstrikes
and sent it to the White House, where, according to
“Here we had targets, we had opportunities, we had a country willing to
support casualties, or risk casualties after 9/11 and we still didn’t do it,”
said Michael O’Hanlon, military analyst with the Brookings Institution.
Maybe we didn’t strike because we'd had futile experience sending cruise missiles into mountains to get one guy. Maybe we didn’t strike back then because we didn't want to scatter them before we invaded and went after them with ground forces, too. Remember, we cruise missiled them and sent in special forces and Kurds. The survivors did scatter into
If I recall, I think I wanted to hit the camp before we went to war with
Shoot, I can imagine the howls of protest from those who would claim we were starting the war before even giving the UN a chance to persuade Saddam to give in. I can see Tony Blair getting too much heat over our pre-preemptive strike to side with us in the war.
War is not a game. It is not easy. And it sure isn’t nearly as clear cut as the article suggests.
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“
From my Jane’s email service, just this: “
I’ve been advocating such a move for a while now. The signs all seem to be there.
This spring, I should think.
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“We Created Terrorists?” (Posted
It is conventional wisdom of people who opposed the Iraq War
that we created terrorists who wouldn’t have otherwise existed if we hadn’t
invaded
But riddle me this, Batman. If overthrowing Saddam created Islamist enemies that wouldn’t otherwise have existed because our troops over there inspired violent anti-Americanism amongst happy shopkeepers and farmers, how come the Islamists are killing Shias and Sunnis? Call me crazy, but I’d have thought killing fellow Moslems would be unlikely for Islamists hopped up on anti-Americanism and filled with Moslem solidarity.
I thought there is a problem with Islamist radicals twisting Islam in order to justify killing Jews, Americans, Shias, or even any Sunni Moslems who don’t think killing those in the earlier categories is just dandy.
What do I know?
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“Let’s Just Get it Over With” (Posted
Get rid of Chavez of Venezuela, that is. I wasn’t sure what we should do before, but the lunatic reaction to the departure/ouster of Aristide of Haiti has convince me that we might as well get rid of Chavez if we can count on the CIA to pull it off. He’s our enemy and he is arguably opening his country to Islamists and giving them a safe haven in our hemisphere. What on earth do we have to lose?
Seriously, we might as well do something since we can’t win with some types. We’ll be blamed regardless of what we do. And I’m not even talking about Ted Rall lunacy. Look at what they say:
Larry Birns, of the
Washington-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs, blamed the Bush administration
for Aristide's exit. With a tilt to the left in
"
“Blame?” We should get credit for easing that Mini Nutball out of power. Instead we get complaints?! And further, we get complaints that poor Chavez could unjustly be next?!
Are these people serious. A “liberal think tank,” eh? Liberal, perhaps, though I’d hope that slavish devotion to anti-American dictators isn’t the norm. But there’s no thinking going on there. And no tanks would ever be involved, I can only assume (and I doubt they can tell a tank from an IFV, anyway). But Lord, when they get caught up in arguing whether we told Aristide to go or told him we would not protect him so he’d better go if he didn’t want the mob outside to kill him, those making that argument are just nuts.
And why on earth should we be staving off any concerns that Chavez could meet Aristide’s fate? We should encourage that fear. Does the Venezuelan ambassador to the UN who just resigned in protest know something?
We probably won’t do anything so we don’t “waste” a major intervention on a non-Axis of Evil state or AoE wannabe, but it sure would be nice if we could do something.
God save me from idiots.
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“The Opposition is Truly Screwed” (Posted
The Venezuelan opposition is being squashed by the hemisphere’s second-tier anti-American dictator, Chavez, as he engineers a dismissal of the petition drive to force a referendum on his awful rule:
Venezuela's opposition appealed to the Organization of
American States, the U.S.-based
Unless we can walk into his office and order Chavez to board a plane for African exile, I’m not sure what we can do here. But I am pretty sure that when the opposition is reduced to asking former president Carter for help, they are probably screwed.
Still, much like we dithered in
It would be nice if a major oil exporter could avoid getting torn apart in a destructive civil war.
It would be really nice if we could get the referendum going soon to prompt a new election and not just let the puppet vice president take over for the remainder of the term.
Why do oil exporters seem to get afflicted so easily with nutballs for rulers?
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“Difference of Strategy?” (Posted
Right. Differences between the
Specifically, the European strategy is to cave and
surrender. While we want to call
U.S. officials and experts fear that failing to take action
against Iran would undermine the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, a bedrock against the spread of nuclear weapons.
Now
"We want to be tougher (than the Europeans) and call
And we’re the ones who are not good multilateralists committed to maintaining international agreements?
Seriously, I think we will deal with
Dealing with
We really need to start dragging the Europeans along with us. I think we’ll pull them to our side as they see the futility of appeasing the Iranian hardliners. Then we’ll help the Iranians help themselves in early 2005 to knock off another member of the Axis of Evil.
Of course, I’ve been wrong before about the reasonableness
of the Europeans (and I say this as the collective EU sense of the word—not in
regard to individual countries in
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“The Chinese Can Kiss My--” (Posted
Assessments by the
Keep hammering them on this issue.
The Chinese are far more likely to be our enemy, in my judgment, than they are to be our strategic partner as long as they are run by a dictatorship. Hammering them on human rights may one day push their communist system over and hasten the day when they are our friends. Or it may weaken a communist state determined to take us on in the not-so-distant future.
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“Target:Shias”
(Posted
Somebody wants Shias in
I’d guess foreign Islamists. Next likely,
the Iranians. Who knows, maybe the rigged election of the hardliners was
the green light the mullahs needed to seriously fight us in
Shoot, even if the Islamists hope to spark a civil war, there strategy might backfire. What if the prospect of being blamed for vicious attacks scares the crap out of the Sunnis? The Turnover date for Iraqi sovereignty is coming soon and the Sunnis might be driven to cooperate in hunting down the terrorists just to prove they aren’t behind the attacks.
Luckily, we captured some suicide bombers who apparently didn’t completely grasp the concept and were captured. Perhaps they failed because it does take time to train these people and if they are indigenously recruited, they may have been rushed through training without it sticking. But we will find out where they came from. Failing to kill even yourself has to be quite demoralizing to a captured suicide bomber.
Sunni Islamist hatred of Shias should not be underestimated. In Pakistan, Shias suffered an attack too.
Like I’ve said, we could really turn the Shias to our friends if they can get past some of the loopy conspiracy theories that hold we carried out the carnage.
Of course (via NRO), loopy conspiracies are not restricted to insulated poverty-stricken Shias. I wish we were so powerful that we could order thug presidents to get out of town. If we could, I’d start with Chavez in Venezuela, who is a pro-Castro thug who is no friend of ours to say the least. Well, maybe third anyway. (And this is ahead of Chirac on my lucid days!)
On
The Kurds are another balancing act for us.
Even as trends go well slowly for us, we must guard against setbacks such as this that can threaten our progress.
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“Guard in Command” (Posted
Our reserves are quite possibly the best in the world. They surpass the quality of all but a few active duty forces. They would be recognized for their excellence but for being compared to the best ground forces in the world—the US Army and Marine Corps.
Yet the quality is there. For the next rotation in
The major commands being alerted are the 42nd Infantry
Division Headquarters from New York, the 256th Separate Infantry
Brigade from Louisiana, the 116th Separate Armored Brigade from Idaho and the
278th Armored Cavalry Regiment from Tennessee.
In the Iraq War, Guard battalions served well bolstering the
active forces. In the current rotation of forces, Guard brigades are serving in
active divisions. In the next rotation, a Guard division will command forces.
This doesn’t indicate if the three Guard units will serve under the Guard
division. Perhaps it is uncertain whether we will dedicate one sector to the
Guard or split up the brigades mixed with active brigades. The Guard division
might command active component units as the Army has done in
Oh, and regarding the rotation, this comment by an American Staff Sergeant amused me:
"That drive to
Remember when the Taliban complained that we bombed them and that if we would only fight on the ground, they’d show us who was the boss? And then we arrived on the ground to hunt them down and chased them out of their mountain redoubts.
And then Saddam said that when we went man-to-man, he’d show
our troops to be cowards and not capable of fighting his warriors? And then we
chased his vaunted Fedayeen into the cities and
killed them. And his Special Republican Guards wet their pants when 3rd
ID and I MEF pounded on the gates of
And even when we set aside our air power and artillery after
we captured
Be careful what you wish for. Isn’t that the saying?
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“Into
Well, we went in. I was unsympathetic to the mission. But it won’t be tough. Haitian rebels are no Islamists. And it won’t break the force or the bank to go in in battalion strength for a bit until a non-US force comes in. This is our mission:
At
the request of the new president of
The
mission of the
·
Contributing
to a more secure and stable environment in the Haitian capital to help promote
the constitutional political process;
·
Assisting
as may be needed to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance;
·
Protecting
·
Facilitating
the repatriation of any Haitian migrants interdicted at sea;
·
Helping
create the conditions for the anticipated arrival of a U.N. multinational
force.
These are reasonable missions all things considered. We are basically trying to provide a peaceful transition between one group of thugs and another group that we hope will be less thuglike.
I would never argue that the Haitians don’t deserve a chance for peace. Nor would I ever argue our mission is immoral.
I suppose I could argue endlessly about the decision already made, but instead, I wish the Marines, French, and Canadians who are there now Godspeed. May they make a difference. May they accomplish their mission.
This attitude is how one supports the troops. Just for future reference.
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“Marine Corps
It occurs to me that with casualties down in
I’ve suggested that the June 30 turnover, as it gets closer,
will force the Sunnis to make a choice between resisting the majority Shias after they get the organs of state power in their
hands or accept a diminished role in a democratic
With the Marine Corps taking over from the Army west of Baghdad in that hotbed of Baathist resistance, the Sunnis will both face a force with an imposing reputation (and that is with the knowledge that the Army has beaten them down this past year) and have an excuse to give up fighting. The Marines will be a new force, with a different approach that could be well suited to persuading the dwindling resistance fighters to just give up. A new Army force might be a challenge that the Baathists might still feel they must accept. The Marines were not the ones chasing them down and killing them the past year and so may be seen as a chance for a fresh start with no face to lose for giving them a chance.
Maybe not. It’s just a thought. But I’ll watch for this one as the Marines rotate in.
The foreign Islamists are a different matter, of course. But without Sunnis helping them or at least looking the other way, they will be easier to pick off.
And the Marines are still a little eager for revenge against the Islamists. Remember the Beirut Marine barracks bombing? The Marines sure as Hell do.
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