Visiting Hours
Numbers Game, it’s not Cricket
Election Analysis 98 - As told by the stars
It Was Good while It Lasted
I had dropped in to see my friend Inder Narain Sen. He had not doing well lately due to the tendency to get worked up over incidents of corruption among his colleagues in government service. We had to calm him down saying there was no point in getting so worked up, especially since we could not do any thing about it. At times he got so agitated, we were worried that he would have a heart attack right in front of us. Since I agreed with his views I could sympathise with him, but the others did not share our views and said we were insane, but that is a relative term and we took it as a compliment.
My friend had reason to be upset, he was upright and honest, he was sincere and hard working and what was the reward for all this, 10 transfers in a span of 10 years. His wife was upset, he had not seen his children for many months, his colleagues treated him like a outcaste, he had to face threats of physical violence. The gratitude of the people he served had kept him going for many years. But for how long can you live on the occasional smile and pat on the back, even if you know that you are right and others are wrong. Can you fight all the evils of the system single handedly.
No one was clean. The system itself was rotten. Politicians do not have to disclose the source of their donations and the identity of the donors. The Prime Ministers and Finance Ministers themselves accepted donations in cash, knowing fully well that persons who paid cash must be avoiding various taxes to generate black money. But after assuming office they pretend that they know nothing. The FM asked in a recent Chamber of Commerce meeting that businessmen must disclose who demanded bribes. But every secret donation in cash is a bribe, is it not. The politicians do not seem to agree. Even a former Prime Minister replied sarcastically to a query on his party’s election expenditure, "what do you want, a confession." Well, if they have something to confess they should do so and the sooner the better. My friend nodded in agreement.
The government, public limited companies, co operative societies, trusts, etc., have to get their accounts audited and their accounts are public documents. The only public institutions in our country which do not publish their annual accounts are the political parties, in spite of the fact that the 60 Crores or so voters have an interest in and a right to know about their financial affairs. The secrecy about normal and legitimate political expenditure is inexplicable. What is wrong in incurring expenditure on printing pamphlets, cloth banners, hiring of vehicles, payment of wages, traveling allowances, daily allowances and battas to the people hired for the election campaigns, advertising on television, radio and in news papers, etc. But for some strange reason politicians do not want to disclose their legitimate expenditure thereby giving scope for criminal elements to hide money obtained through extortion and illegitimate expenditure on goondaism, booth capturing and bribing of voters with liquor and gifts, under the garb of political donations and election expenditure. If the honest are secretive how can we distinguish the honest from the dishonest. Why must a honest man be secretive. Or is the converse true, that all people who kept secrets must be dishonest. My friend became thoughtful and did not reply.
I tried to explain in more detail, a previous Finance Minister and Prime Minister have given fraudulent declarations regarding their addresses and normal place of residence to get elected to the Rajya Sabha, so is it wrong for a ordinary citizen to give different addresses to evade identification by the Income Tax department or to file false returns and declarations. The Members of Parliament belonging to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha did not disclose their bank accounts to the Income Tax department and the Election Commission, so why should a ordinary citizen disclose all his bank accounts to the Income Tax department. A JMM leader claimed that what is a bribe for a bureaucrat, is a political donation for a politician. In a way it is true, but only if the fact of taking the donation is published openly and the expenditure from out of the donation accounted for to the satisfaction of the Election Commission and the Income Tax department.
But what is the use of protesting about all this. Can we expect the bureaucracy to be clean when their masters are not. So I advised my friend to take it easy, there is nothing that you and I can do. The rules are made by the people who are themselves unaccountable and who refuse to be accountable. For example,
i) the anti defection law permits wholesale defection by more than one third of the members of a party ;
ii) the Representation of Peoples Act lays down limits on the expenditure that can be incurred by a candidate, but the expenditure by a party is conveniently excluded ;
iii) the Prevention of Corruption Act is vague as to whether MLAs, MPs and Ministers are public servants or not ;
iv) under the Income Tax Act, tax has to be deducted at source on payments to advertisement, transport and printing contractors by the government, corporations, companies, co operative societies, urban development authorities, societies, trusts, universities and firms. The only large public bodies not liable to deduct tax at source are political parties who incur large expenditure on advertisement, transport and printing during elections.
Lack of compulsion to maintain accounts leads to lack of accountability and lack of responsibility leads to irresponsibility. It is the politicians who have created these rules, so how can we expect them to amend these rules to their own disadvantage. After all committing suicide is a criminal offense under the Indian Penal Code and no self respecting and law abiding politician would even dream of doing so, would he ?
So I told my friend, the secret of a long and peaceful life is to live and let live. Keep your hands clean, but do not complain about the man next to you. I had much more to say, but the visiting hours were over and I had to leave my friend, INSen as we now call him.
I dropped in to see my Economist friend, to discuss the state of the economy and the fall in the rate of inflation (I was feeling mighty pleased because I had just bought a new Colour TV and it had cost me less than the one bought a few years ago and even the interest rate on the hire purchase was very low). He was watching the India Pakistan cricket match. I noticed that the Action Replay was sponsored by VDIS, the message was most approporiate, those who had missed paying taxes the first time could do so now. I had known my friend for a long time out I had not realised that he was interested in cricket, I said so. He replied that nowadays Economic statistics, Lok Sabha seat positions and Share prices had become too complicated to understand or forecast, so he had decided to relax and watch cricket for a change.
I agreed him that times were difficult, it was getting more and more difficult to understand economics, business and politics. I had apparently touched a raw nerve, for he poured out his bagful of woes.
About his GDP and political forecasts gone awry, his investments in shares gone sour, his political predictions upset at the drop of a letter. The slow down in the economy had turned all his forecasts upside down. Liberalisation in India was to have resulted in rapid economic growth, lower inflation and a prosperous private sector.
Instead, during the first few years of the reforms inflation and growth had been high, now both inflation and growth was low and finally the less said about the private sector the better. They constantly complained about foreign competition. The stock markets were in even worse shape, a few scripts were quoting at less than a Rupee, PE ratios were in single digits and most shares were quoted at a discount on the book values. In fact even the opinions on the state of the economy were divided, some said the economy was doing badly, others quoted statistics to show that this was not so. It was just that the bad news was given more publicity than the good news. But by now I was so confused I asked, is low inflation good news or bad. My friend explained that inflation was low due to lack of demand hence it was better to have high growth with inflation than to have low growth with low inflation.
I changed the subject and to cheer him up, I joked that the Malthusian Theory of Population probably referred to the propensity of number of political parties to grow in geometric progression, until a famine of votes wipes out some of them. My friend became even more gloomy and took off about irresponsible politicians changing governments every few months and forcing mid-term polls after just 2 years. How can the rupee be stable if the government was not, was his lament. How could you make investments for even 3 years if governments lasted less then that. He cursed parties and said they were like atoms in atom bombs demolishing governments whenever they split.
I suggested in lighter vein that he propose a new theory that ‘Growth rate was proportionate to the average life of the government and inversely proportionate to the number of parties in the ruling coalition’. The larger the number of parties and the shorter the life of a government, the lower the GDP growth. It drew a cold look, please stop trying to make me laugh said my friend, let me mourn in peace and enjoy the game.
I gave up and we started discussing
cricket, about Saurav’s good form and Sachin’s bad form,
about dew and rain, the benefits of light and the burden
of twilight. But alas India had lost to Pakistan. Now there
was no chance of India making it to
the finals. My friend was thoughtful for a while and
said slowly "but what if Pakistan lost to England and India defeated West
Indies," then India, Pakistan and West Indies would have one win
each and the net run rate would be taken into account to decide
the second finalist. So the margin of defeat of Pakistan
and the margin of victory of India would be important.
His eyes light up as he reached for a calculator and he said "if
Pakistan batted first and were bowled out for a low score and England
scored the same in a less number of overs or if .... ." Well
the probabilities were endless and I looked at my friend in
surprise, I thought he had taken up cricket to avoid the vagaries
and pit falls of statistics and forecasts. But I suppose, once an addict
always an addict.
The premier star of the Lotus constellation had for a long time been shining on the horizon to the north, but since its influence was restricted to the northern hemisphere and to the house of Ganga, it had played a restricted role in the life of Bharat so far. But it had now entered the houses of Kalinga and Dravida. With the demise of the Bull, the house of Kalinga was open for any other star to dominate it and the combination of Lotus with Jaya in Dravida could spell Vijaya for it.
The power of the other major star of the Lotus constellation had been stronger when it was in the house of Ram, supported by the Trishul constellation. After leaving the house of Ram its influence had weakened considerably, but it was only with the help of this star that the Lotus constellation was gaining in strength. This powerful pair had for sometime been trapped in the house of Maya but had now broken free, Maya appears to have taken on the traditional role of Shani, of destabilising anyone coming under its influence or even passing through its path for even a short while. The signals from the house of Dwaraka were also not clear, one star from this house had been effected by the red planet, Mars for some time and had been moving in a erratic path. It appeared to be returning to its home constellation of Lotus.
The movement of the three stars of the Cow constellation in the Milky way galaxy were perplexing. The lotus constellation appeared to be gaining over them but they had the power to counter this influence by combining their strengths, but they seemed to be pulling in three different directions. The brightest one among the three, was aligning with a major star, but this was a star that was receding into the background, it appeared sonia so near but was yet so far, its light flickered like a mirage in the desert and it was difficult to assess the influence it would have on Bharat in the comming year. The out come of this combination of stars was also uncertain.
The combination of the heavenly bodies in the southern hemisphere were even more perplexing, the house of Cavery was empty for the moment. The ancient almanacs gave no clue as to which Deva would move into this house in the future. A star named Young Turk was gaining in shakti, but the name had been given a long time ago and was now inappropriate. The lotus constellation was moving towards this house and could dominate it, but on the other hand (no pun intended) if these two powerful forces aligned with each other, their domination could be total. Chandra was dominating the house of Deccan but there appeared to be a possibility of its being eclipsed by the southward movement of the lotus constellation.
Forecasting the future
by looking at the position of the stars and constellations
is fraught with uncertainties, perhaps I should switch to Palmistry
and make forecasts by reading the lines on the palm. Perhaps
the life line and fate line on the hand could tell me
more about the future of Bharat.
(An Asian tragedy in one act)
Taek Wan Doo, of Sub Chaos.
Agniputri Dhukarno, of Bingo Nausea.
Mahatmo Ali, of Maliceia.
Pingpong Chakravyuh, of Highland.
Sinking Puri, of Billinagar.
Location : A conference room in a highrise building in Billinagar, with a view of the port and a haze of smoke in the distant background.
The cast is sitting around a round table except for Agniputri Dhukarno who is standing at the window, looking out.
The mood is somber. The agenda for the meeting is to review the economic crisis.
Agniputri Dhukarno (looking sad, gazing into the haze in the background): "The fires are raging in the forests and in the cities, speculation is rife, will the cities burn down faster than the forests ?"
Mahatmo Ali (agitated) : "By George ! do not sorrow, we are after the man who started these fires, we will catch him before the day is out."
Taek Wan Doo : "Its been a long day and it was good while it lasted, I hope the night will end soon and we live to see a new dawn."
Pingpong Chakravyuh : "As the English say ‘make hay while the sun shines’, but now the sun is no longer shining in these parts, its been obscured by the haze caused by the forest fires. (Turning towards Mahatmo Ali) Are you sure you can catch the man who started these fires."
Mahatmo Ali : "By the grace of god we will"
Pingpong Chakravyuh (looking up from a report) : "The exchange rates are swinging like yo yos, high one day and low the other. I get a feeling of nausea when I look at them."
Agniputri Dhukarno: "Bingo, nauseating it is. Its like being on a roller coaster, like the one in Disneyland. My children and all their friends enjoyed it very much when we visited Disneyland. Of course the trip was very expensive. Lucky we could make the trip while we could still afford it."
Taek Wan Doo : "We were so strong and mighty, we were even able to beat the Chinese with their kungfoo and karate. We used to say proudly that South Chaos was better than North Chaos, but now everyone says North or South, Chaos is Chaos."
Agniputri Dhukarno : "Our currency has depreciated so fast, we are forced to import vast quantity of notes to meet the demand. (Turning to Taek Wan Doo) Can you send a few ships to transport the notes."
Taek Wan Doo : "No can do. All my shipyards are sinking. We have no money even to repair ships."
Sinking Puri (turning the pages of a report in front of him) : "Now a days I get this sinking feeling whenever I look at these reports, but let us be optimistic, we built our countries and made them strong, we can do it again."
Pingpong Chakravyuh : "We are caught in a chakravyuh (pardon the pun) of our own making, and I for one do not know how to get out alive."
Taek Wan Doo : "Do not be so pessimistic, I am sure that Nipone, the land of the rising sun, will pull us through this ordeal."
Mahatmo Ali : "Yes, I spoke to them yesterday, they promised to help out as soon as their bank accounts are reconciled and they find out how much money is in their accounts. It appears that at present they are not even sure how many of their banks are even open."
Agniputri Dhukarno : "But I heard that the size of their bank balance is shrinking faster than the size of their electronic goods."
Taek Wan Doo (in a gloomy voice) : "Gold has lost its glitter, Silver is tarnished, so I asked my friend Sumo Tomato of Nipone if they could spare a few coppers, to see us through to the next century."
Mahatmo Ali (all excited) : "Just what I had in mind. What did he say ?"
Taek Wan Doo : "They are not sure how much copper they have, they are doing a stock taking and he said that he will call us when they are through."
Sinking Puri : "What is the latest from IMF ?"
Agniputri Dhukarno : "They are asking us to tighten our belts further."
Taek Wan Doo (in exasperation) : "My people are selling the shirts off their back to buy their next meal ! Who has belts to tighten ?"
Agniputri Dhukarno : "We have learnt so much from Nipone, perhaps its time to learn how to commit harakiri."
Sinking Puri : "What about our friend in the big White House. What is he saying."
Taek Wan Doo : "Even he is all at sea. The gulf between us is widening. I told him that the Won was weak, and he replied that the war was as good as won, with or without help from the United Nations."
Sinking Puri : "At this rate we will become extinct."
Mahatmo Ali : "The Indians have a project to save tigers from becoming extinct, perhaps we should ask them to help us."
Duet by Agniputri Dhukarno and Taek Wan Doo :
We were toasted and feted
We asked "Who will pick up the bill ?"
Pat came the reply "We will, we will,
Pick up the bill, we will."
We asked for more
"Be our Guest, just sign here"
Ah ! these ingenious fools
In for a penny, in for a pound.
Sign for a Million !
Sign for a Billion !!
Sign for a Trillion !!!
Just sign for a few dollars more.
One for the port,
One for the airport,
One for the car and
One for the road to drive it on.
We were toasted and feted
till we almost dropped dead.
We borrowed and borrowed
and we did drop dead.
Chorus
"We borrowed and borrowed
and we did drop dead."
All exit towards window in single file.
Curtains