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Posted on April 15, 1999

MILLENIUM BUG IN GROUNDWATER COMPUTATIONS?

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Groundwater is one of renewal natural resources and has a dynamic nature. Therefore, time as a variable plays an important role in groundwater computations in its various aspects, such as its quantity, flow time, and water age. Input data for such computation generally derived from a groundwater data base. Since the dynamic nature of groundwater, then a groundwater data base refers to a certain time or related to a time series, such as water level data.

More specific, basically time series groundwater parameter which most influences in groundwater computations is water level, while time variables are :

  • initial state t0

  • actual or final state tn

  • time different between initial and actual state Dt = tn - t0

Hence, read or input of groundwater parameter data referring to false time variables, will lead an error in groundwater computations, e.g., water balance, drawing a hydrograph of observation well or prognoses of groundwater conditions based on model results in a basin management. Those errors will give a misleading guidance in groundwater management and it harm the community and groundwater resources itsef, eventually.

Nowadays, most of grundwater computations and data recordings for a data base purpose are done with computer facilities and various computation softwares are applied for these requirements.

The use of computers and those softwares, apart from its positive impacts, is basically the base of future errors in groundwater computations entering to the year 2000 (the last year before entering to the third millenium). It's often called as "millenium bug", and may suffer in groundwater computations if the hardwares and softwares do not comply with year 2000 criteria (Year 2000 or shorted as Y2K Compliance).

As we know, in the early stage of computers usage, due to the limited of its memory capacity, then year time was written in two digits, hence two digits of 00 will be meant by computer as year 1900 (and this is not a leap year). Convention on writing year time with two digits was carrying over into 90's decade. For computers and softwares do not comply with Y2K criteria, its computations will deliver confused results, entering year 2000, since the two last digits of year 2000 (which is actually a leap year) will be meant as year 1900. Therefore, it can be imagined a result of water balance, hydrograph or groundwater model computations which input time series t0 and tn data of groundwater parameters will be confusing. It will be more problem risen, if computers read groundwater data for t0 or tn, equal to February 29, 2000.

Millenium bug in groundwater field may not only affect to technical computations, but also in administrative works related to groundwater, such as renewal time of drilling company, water-drilling and water abstraction permits. Computers will mislead in reading permits which are valid until 2000 and judged as expired permits, hence, the permit holders must renewal its.

Short description above gives a figure that confuses due to millenium bug in groundwater computations and data recording entering year 2000 , which just only hundreds day left, may be happened.

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In Indonesia, for institutions either government or private, dealing with groundwater which may be not yet aware to the important of Y2K compliance, they should conduct efforts to anticipate impact of millenium bug, even for to day is too late, it is still much better than to do nothing.

At the hardware side, check its time system. As you know, every computer has its own clock system in BIOS (Basic Input/Output System), and it is embeded in one of computer chips. Although the computer is off, its clock system is still running. More detail you can find at KOMPAS or other web sites discussing on Y2K bug.

You can do by yourself to carry out simple steps, to check whether your machine comply with Y2K criteria, by doing following things:

  • Machine is in on condition
  • Set date on 31 December 1999
  • Set time at 23:58:00
  • Wait a moment whether the date points to 1 January 2000
  • Machine is in on condition
  • Set date on 31 December 1999
  • Set time at 23:58:00
  • Turn off machine
  • After about two minutes, turn on machine
  • Check whether the date points to 1 January 2000

If the change went smoothly, then your machine is Y2K compliance, and no need to purchase the new one.

For more ensuring, try to run a checking program. You may download this program from NSTL. This short program will deliver an evaluation, whether your machine Y2K compliance or not.

Hence, from the hardware side do not be hasty to consider for replacing your machine with the new one!.

From the software side, steps to be taken is a little bit complicated, since it refers not only to the finance but also to computer programming expertise. From thousands or millions lines of source code, has to be checked line by line which may contain year code of two digits and programmers rewrite in digit code comply with Y2K criteria.

Application programs for computations and groundwater data base are available in form of packaged or tailored programs. For packaged program, it can be asked to its publishing company, whether the program Y2K compliance, while for tailored program, its programmer may be called back for rewriting, if it is not comply with year 2000 criteria.

Program running on operation system Linux usually is Y2K Compliance, since its open source nature, hence, every one with language programming knowledge may easily improve it any time.

Referring to time left, then the application packaged program which is purchased from the groundwater softwares company, may be not so worry about, since the company is aware to millenium bug impacts. We just simply to send it back, and the company will replace it with the already Y2K Compliance program at almost no cost. For the tailored program, the time left may not be enough (supposing until to day no corrective steps have been taken) and it need a cost of money, since a new working contract may be required for new programming.

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Whereas computations and groundwater data base are close related to the time variable, hence on the year 2000, millenium bug may produce a confusing result in both technical computations and administrative works in groundwater field. Since those event never happened before, then for avoiding the harm things in groundwater management in Indonesia, anticipatory steps have to be taken to overcome the problems which might be risen.

All efforts taken by banking sector, the most critical sector threatened by millenium bug, should also be conducted in groundwater field, since both has similar natures.

Although the time left is very narrow, it is better too late rather than to do nothing. In cynical way, it is said that be happy for institutions, those still using manual ways in computing, data recording and administrative works in goundwater field, since change to the new millenium will affect nothing.

(Soetrisno S.)

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