 Crystal BallWe're at or past the college football midseason, depending on which team you happen to follow. So who's going to play for the Mythical National Title this year? And will the January bowl games even take place, or get canceled in the wake of worldwide Y2K disasters? I can't answer the second question, but I will tell you that my own Y2K "survival" kit is nearly complete, although my wife insists that she won't eat the SPAM or Chef-Boyardee items I've selected. I hope the Webmaestro is similarly or better prepared, because it's his turn to host the January 1 bowl games this year. Although if I'm over there watching games, then there's probably no Y2K disaster, right? So, Webmaestro, why don't you and wife whip up a huge Turkey dinner on that day, and ROBERT and I will be responsible for the beer.
Below I analyze the remaining contenders for the MNC, and make mid-season forecasts for the BCS games. Of course the BCS Poll is not out yet, it debuts October 25. It's hard enough to predict what will happen, but many of my assertions are based on the fact that strength of schedule will be a major factor. An amateur site that gives an attempt at the ratings currently has 1. FSU 2. Nebraska 3. Va. Tech 4. Penn State. However, Jeff Sagarin has Virginia Tech first and FSU fourth. Go figure. Sagarin is only one factor in the BCS formula, of course, and while FSU, Penn State and Nebraska's schedules all figure to get harder as the season progresses, Va. Tech's will not.
The Heavyweights:
- Florida State (7-0, 5-0 ACC). It looks easy for the Seminoles�at least until a November 20th date in the Swamp vs. Florida. The other remaining games are at Clemson, at Virginia, and home vs. Maryland. FSU will be heavy favorites in all of these games, with or without erstwhile Heisman trophy candidate Peter Warrick. FSU has only won at Florida once this decade, in 1993, a year the 'Noles would go on to win the MNC.
- Penn State (7-0, 3-0 Big 10). Tough but winnable games still lie ahead: The Lions are at Purdue and Illinois, home vs. Minnesota and Michigan, then finish on the road with Michigan State. Is this a team of destiny? It seemed that way when Kevin Thompson and Chafie Fields pulled victory out of the hat in the Orange Bowl. Saturday's win over Ohio State showed that Penn State can grind down their lower-tier Big Ten brethren even if they don't have a big offensive day. Michigan State will be tricky: A good Penn State team was blown out in Lansing at the end of the '97 season. The bottom line is that PSU has the defense to get to New Orleans.
- Nebraska (6-0, 3-0 Big 12). Another contender with a tough stretch ahead: At Texas and Kansas, home vs. Texas A&M and Kansas State, at Colorado and then a possible berth in the Big 12 Championship game. The Blackshirts are having a big year as this Nebraska team is doing it with defense. I think they can win out; K State hasn't won in Lincoln in forever. If all top 3 teams finish unbeaten, it is not clear who would make it to the Sugar Bowl. Nebraska can make a statement Saturday with a big win over Texas.
The Dark Horses:
- Virginia Tech (6-0, 2-0 Big East). After the 62-0 pasting of Syracuse, the AP article asked, anybody got a problem with Virginia Tech's national championship hopes now? Not me, as I jump on the bandwagon and reverse my "Hokies are a fraud" stance. It's a very good team: Lots of seniors, great defense and offense. And Va. Tech has pretty smooth sailing from here: At Pittsburgh and West Virginia, home vs. Miami, at Temple and home vs. Boston College. Unfortunately the Hokies' blessing, a very weak schedule, may also be their problem. A lower BCS ranking will leave Va. Tech out of the Sugar Bowl Picture if two of the three above teams remain unbeaten. Miami (2-3) is the only big game left, but the Hokies have beaten the Canes 4 straight times.
- Kansas State (6-0, 3-0 Big 12). Like Virginia Tech, the schedule was easy (again) for K State, so the same BCS problems may apply. The 'Cats are at Ok. State, home vs. Baylor and Colorado, at Nebraska and home vs. Missouri. We'll know just how good this team is after they play Nebraska. The guess is that this is a 10-1 or 9-2, Alamo-bowl (again) type team.
- Mississippi State (6-0, 3-0 SEC). A threat to win the SEC west, but like Arkansas last year, not really a threat to play for the MNC. Remaining games are home vs. LSU and Kentucky, at Bama and Arkansas, and home vs. Mississippi. On second thought, 11-0 is not out of the question, but I just can't see them getting past Florida or Tennessee in the SEC championship game.
- Marshall (6-0, 3-0 MAC). Definitely a threat, maybe even a lock, to go unbeaten. I'm giving them some love here even though they are definitely not a National title contender. At Buffalo, home vs. N. Illinois, at Kent and W. Michigan, home vs. Ohio, and then the MAC title game. I hope Marshall gets a good second-tier bowl game for their efforts, against a 9-2 type of team rather than against some 6-5 slug. How about vs. K State in the Alamo bowl?
The Once-beaten Contenders:
- Florida (6-1, 3-1 SEC). No 1-loss team is better positioned than the Gators. They're ranked 6th in both polls, one spot below the Tennessee team they beat in September, but Tennessee doesn't really matter here as the Gators should win the SEC East. That gives them 3 winnable games (Georgia, Vandy, South Carolina) followed by a crack at #1 FSU in the Swamp. Follow that up with a win over Alabama or Miss. State in the SECC game, and the Gators would certainly be the highest ranked one-loss team in the BCS. Obviously they would need two of three unbeatens (PSU, Va. Tech, Nebraska or K State) to lose to get to New Orleans.
- Alabama (5-1, 3-0 SEC). The second-best positioned one-loss team, they are only ranked 10th right now but have a measure of control over their own destiny because they play 5th ranked Tennessee this week and could knock out UF again in the SECC game. Plus the remaining schedule is heavy on home games: vs. Tennessee, So. Miss, LSU, Miss. State, and finish at Auburn.
- Tennessee (4-1, 2-1 SEC). What the Vols really need to get back in this thing is for UF to lose another SEC game. Not likely. The other way to New Orleans could be for all the top unbeatens to lose, Tenn wins out, and gains the rematch with UF for the MNC.
It could happen: Remember, no one would have predicted all those upsets last December. Remaining games: at Bama, home vs. So. Carolina and Notre Dame, at Arkansas and Kentucky, home vs. Vandy.
- Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-1 ACC). Recently the Jackets have squandered opportunities to pick up crucial poll votes because they've struggled with bad teams, North Carolina and Duke. As for the Sugar Bowl, they would need a lot of help at this point but definitely still in the running for a BSC game. Remaining games: Home vs. NC State, at Virginia, vs. Clemson, at Wake Forest, and vs. Georgia.
- Michigan (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten). The 9th-ranked Wolverines need to beat Penn State and take it from there. Remaining games: Illinois, at Indiana, vs. Northwestern, at Penn St., vs. Ohio State. UM is definitely a contender for a BCS game, maybe the Rose Bowl.
BCS Projections |
| Sugar Bowl |
Florida State vs. Penn State |
| Orange Bowl |
Florida vs. Nebraska |
| Fiesta Bowl |
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee |
| Rose Bowl |
Michigan State vs. Arizona
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It's Minnesota Vikings Defensive Coordinator Foge Fazio. The Vikes take a hard-fought, come-from-behind 23-22 lead over Detroit last weekend with less than two minutes to play. Lions Backup QB Gus Frerotte takes the Lions right back down the field to set up the game winning FG, basically completing the same slant pass play 5 times in a row. It looked real easy for Frerotte. Why doesn't Minnesota make any adjustments? What kind of defense was this? I'm not even sure they were in a prevent (prevents you from winning), maybe they just had 10 guys on the field or something.
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