Before the 1998 campaign began, I identified 11 teams that I thought had a legitimate shot at getting to the inaugural Bowl Championship Series (BCS) game and winning a mythical National Championship (MNC). I picked a lot of usual suspects, omitted a few others, and threw in some darkhorses. Now it�s October, and we�re only about 65 days away from knowing who will play in the BCS game. How did I do on my predictions? I would say OK. Nine of 11 teams are still alive; 6 are undefeated and the other 3 are ranked in the top 12 with one loss. Did I leave anyone out? I would probably say no, although if I were tag anyone else it would be a young but good Georgia team featuring the sensational Champ Bailey. Anyway, here�s my 11 preseason favorites with new comments (the original comments are in italics).

Colorado State If the Rams can beat Michigan State and Colorado in the first few weeks of the season, they could run the WAC and stand unbeaten at year�s end. Yeah, OK, it didn�t happen. When Colorado waxed Colorado State at Mile High, this admitted darkhorse was done.

Florida It�s just hard imagining an SEC opponent having much success against Bob Stoop�s unit. The funny thing about the Tennessee loss is that the Vols didn�t really have much offensive success against UF. The Gators just shot themselves in the foot when they had the ball, killing drive after drive with the turnovers. New Outlook: The Gators are very much alive for the BCS berth, they are currently the highest ranked team (6^th) with one loss. If they take care of business, they will still need a loss by these three teams: Tennessee, Ohio State, and UCLA.

Florida State The only difficult road game is, well there really isn�t one this year� Blooop! How about the game at Carter-Finley! New Outlook: It�s pretty much the same as the outlook for UF (see above) except the �Noles would also need a Georgia loss which I think is likely to happen. However, I would say at this time that I think FSU is much more likely than UF to stumble before their November matchup and remove themselves from the picture. The offense has been too mediocre. FSU will have a better, more experienced squad next season and could be the preseason #1.

Kansas State because they have a big-time QB in Michael Bishop and get Nebraska in Lawrence. This is obviously the key to the Wildcat�s hopes, they�re doing a good job trampling the teams they were supposed to beat. New Outlook: K State may need additional help even if they beat Nebraska, I�m not sure how they would stack up against an unbeaten UCLA (assume that in this case Ohio State is the other BCS team) especially if UCLA were to reschedule and win that Miami game. We'll know more when the BCS rankings are unveiled later this month. See http://www.abccfb.com/road/rules.asp for more info on the BCS ratings.

Louisiana State because they should get another crack at UF in the SEC championship game. That�s in some doubt now�Arkansas and Mississippi State are serious competition for once-beaten LSU in the SEC west. New Outlook: After they lose to UF in the swamp this week, put a fork in the Tigers.

Michigan The Wolverines don�t really play an opponent who can test their high-pressure D until the season-ender against OSU. Ouch, that one hurts. How about giving up 74 points in their first two games?

Nebraska because they�re Nebraska. This was pretty much all you could say when the Huskers were spanking Washington two weekends ago. Then they turn around and struggle with Oklahoma State, and those kind of games are also par for Nebraska when you remember the Missouri game last year. Bottom line is that they�re still the most feared team in the nation. New Outlook: Win out and they play in the BCS game. I predict they�ll be defending their MNC in the Fiesta Bowl � they get up for the big games.

Ohio State because they have a lot of skill talent�OSU misses Wisconsin, and Michigan is at home. Reams of skill talent. I�ve been especially impressed with running back Michael Wiley (562 rushing yds., 5 rushing TDs, 1 receiving). Michigan is still the question that won�t be answered until November 28th. New Outlook: If they run the table they�ll obviously play in Tempe. A lot of pundits are pointing to the schedule and saying that Ohio State won�t be beaten again in 1998. I say that�s the kiss of death. In any case, how can you take OSU seriously until they beat Michigan?

Tennessee A Tee Martin-led upset over Florida in September (the game is in Knoxville) could do wonders for the Vols. This could turn out to be the case. New Outlook: The Vols seem to be fumbling their way to wins every week. They would need either OSU or Nebraska to lose, I think they could edge out UCLA and Kstate based on schedule points. But I predict they�ll stumble somewhere, maybe against Alabama or at Georgia next week.

UCLA Truth be told, the PAC-10 should be a great conference this year: Arizona, Arizona St., UCLA and Washington all look like potentially great teams, and USC, Oregon and Stanford aren�t too shabby either. But you have to believe this means they�re all going to incur losses against each other, which could take them out of the Tostitos picture come January. I still believe this. Teams already out of the Tostitos picture: Arizona State, Washington, and USC. New Outlook: They�d better reschedule Miami to get a higher BCS ranking � can you believe their reasons for not rescheduling on Dec. 5^th? They don�t want to move a banquet�What�s wrong with them? In any case, they would need either an OSU or Nebraska loss if they go unbeaten. But I predict they�ll lose a PAC-10 game.

Wisconsin A darkhorse for sure, but the Badgers could be 9-0 heading into the Michigan game. Indeed�Only who�s going to be the surprise favorite in this one? New Outlook: They would need a lot of help, I think a once-beaten Florida would edge them out in the BCS rankings, causing all sorts of controversy. In any case it won�t happen, they�ll lose.

New Prediction for BCS Fiesta Bowl: It will be�13-0 Nebraska vs. 10-1 Florida. This will cause an uproar from the Tennessee camp, who will point out: 1. They beat Florida 2. They�re the SEC champs! But a big win over FSU in Tallahassee will keep the Gators at #2 in the BCS rankings when the other top-ranked teams get knocked off. The surprising thing about this UF team is that it will be the defense taking them this far, not the fun-and-gun. But Steve Spurrier will hope his guys are "playing like Gators" when they take on Nebraska.

I hope to re-assess my list and BCS prediction in November!

I asked this question in my pre-season commentary:

Alabama

So, what�s the deal? None of them are back yet in 1998. Notre Dame, Texas, and Alabama all suffered extremely embarrassing losses, very unbecoming of these storied programs. The Irish are 3-1, though, and will improve on last year�s record. USC looks a little better than last year, but could still lose a bunch of games in the wild PAC-10. The team that may have the best chance of getting back to glory soon is Miami. The recruiting is just too good in Florida (and the Miami admissions standards too low) for this program to stay down for long. The proof of this is that Miami has a number of nice young players like WR Reggie Wayne. This year, the Canes still lack experience and depth, problems that may be rectified as early as next season.

My Next Commentary:

Look for a dual commentary the week of October 18^th as intrepid reporters ROBERT and I check in on location from Baton Rouge, LA. The agenda? A LSU-Kentucky game in Death Valley, and a first-hand look at Heisman pretender Wildcat QB Tim Couch. We at the Steve St. John College Football Homepage are pleased to report live from a pivotal college football contest in 1998, a trend we hope to see more of in the future!