Many people have recently asserted that we do not need a playoff because the national championship picture would materialize by the end of the season ala 1998 (e.g., Kansas State, UCLA). With the weak performance and subsequent loss by Tennessee, a team that was supposedly �playing the best football in the country,� the landscape has taken shape and the title will be decided on the field. (For those of you who believe that the championship is mythical until a playoff is realized - and I too subscribe to that notion - don't fret, because from what I hear via the UF athletic department and the Sunshine Network, we may be just four years away from having one.) With the Vols' loss, Virginia Tech has secured the #2 spot, joining FSU as the top two-rated BCS teams, both being undefeated. After this weekend those standings should hold true for what was supposed to have been the game of the century.
The so-called mighty Gators will host the Seminoles in the National Semifinal Game in Gainesville on Saturday. Eighty-five thousand plus screaming, only half-way lunatic drunk fans (since the game starts at 3:30 instead of 8pm) will loudly cheer on Florida for their final, regular season-ending game. Unfortunately, this team, even at home, even with the energy from the rabid fans, even with the emotion from such a rivalry, the Gators are no match for the Seminoles. The Gators have looked downright pathetic the last three games (really 4), making any bet that if it is a close game the Noles will win it. Further, the Gators don't have a signal-caller that can effectively and efficiently move the offense, or rather, one that can just move the ball at all, leaving FSU's defensive personnel licking their chops as they review film this week. Although no one is giving the Gators a chance, even though the underdog has won the last three years and Bowden has won only once in the Swamp in the 90s, the Gators do have a shot and it isn't just for the sheer reason that these are 18-21 year olds playing the game. Championships are always won with great defenses.
Florida's defense, which hasn't allowed a TD in 10 quarters, has given up much yardage outside the redzone. Though this unit has been unstinting in that important statistical category, they have yielded big chunks of real estate, especially on third down. Saturday will be no different and FSU will be able to move the ball. I am not saying that the Florida defense is great, but they are certainly talented. And since this game is at home, the noise will play a critical factor and with it, so will the defensive front four. If the Gators are to win Alex Brown, a half a sack shy of the Gator season record, and �Big Money� Warren will be the leaders via their big-play making ability. If the front line does not get penetration and rush FSU quarterback Chris Weinke hard and hit him often, it will be a blowout, on the order of about 20 points. But if the front line partially shuts down the high-octane Seminoles, that high-energy spirit will contagiously spread to the offense, led by� Jesse Johnson.
Spurrier will again employ the two-headed QB, thereby �coachin' them up� during each play, although he didn't want it this way. Spurrier wanted Johnson to be solo #1 and he gave him the reigns last spring for a number of reasons. The coach knew that this team needed a leader, in part, due to the team's overall youth, and he had hoped Johnson would accept that position. Johnson is no Kennedy, as can easily be seen by his recent Terry Dean-like comments after the Vandy game where he stated that their defense had the audible signals courtesy of Tim Olmstead, a Florida QB transfer. So what: if you are a competitor, like a pure fastball relief pitcher against a pure fastball hitter, you put your best stuff out there and go head to head; even if you lose - no excuses. And Doug, you are excused for thinking that you knew more than one of the greatest offensive masterminds, second only to Bill Walsh.
Spurrier is running the show and we see that with his strategic equivocal statements concerning the offense - Spurrier wanted to get the attention of his team and then first-string QB by benching him. He probably has and with it, a shot at it all. Though Spurrier places his highest currency on winning the SEC and not the national title, Spurrier will go all out since there is a week off between this game and the SEC championship game. He will take the correct philosophy, as hopefully Jon Hoke will take on a similar aggressiveness on defense, that 'we have nothing to lose,' especially since he knows he can rally the troops with that extra time off in case of a loss. That aggressiveness will manifest itself in lots of different formations, stretching the field, a few trick plays, and a return to fundamentals. Spurrier will utilize the screen, especially the middle screen, and will use the running backs as receivers out of the two-back pro set (unfortunately though, it is improbable that both Graham and Carrol will be in the backfield at the same time because that would have been a formidable duo in terms of speed, tackle-breaking ability, and size to stop the blitz).
If the Gators are to win it will be a low-scoring affair although the Gators might easily connect on a long bomb early. I give the Gators a shot because, as this college season has proven, the days of the '94-95 Cornhusker- and '95-'96 Gator- dominant kind of team have come to an end. The inveterate conclusion that only a few upper-echelon teams could knock off the other are over. Even if FSU is somewhat shaky, however, don't kid yourself. The reality is is that this Gator team is above average at best and we saw that not only with the Alabama loss at home but with their wins since. Also, don't think that Spurrier has been holding back just so he wouldn't show FSU - the Gators scored 20 and 13 points the last two games, respectively, because that is all they could muster. They will need lots of luck to win this game but the more cohesive and better-led team will win as I am already preparing myself to be disappointed in the press box on Saturday.
The New H Man's Line: FSU 31 UF 23.
Many people have recently asserted that we do not need a playoff because the national championship picture would materialize by the end of the season ala 1998 (e.g., Kansas State, UCLA). With the weak performance and subsequent loss by Tennessee, a team that was supposedly �playing the best football in the country,� the landscape has taken shape and the title will be decided on the field. (For those of you who believe that the championship is mythical until a playoff is realized - and I too subscribe to that notion - don't fret, because from what I hear via the UF athletic department and the Sunshine Network, we may be just four years away from having one.) With the Vols' loss, Virginia Tech has secured the #2 spot, joining FSU as the top two-rated BCS teams, both being undefeated. After this weekend those standings should hold true for what was supposed to have been the game of the century.