From The Singapore Straits Times, 29th November 2000

A year ago, one of Malaysia's most hard-fought elections saw ruling party Umno suffer a stunning rejection among the Malay voters. It sparked a period of soul-searching and calls for reform. The party has some way to go before it can reclaim its position

By Brendan Pereira MALAYSIA CORRESPONDENT

A STRANGE sight greeted Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar when he returned to his constituency in Johor a fortnight ago.

His welcoming party included supporters in a convoy of vehicles, carrying Umno and National Front banners and wearing their 'war face'.'It was just like the elections were around the corner,' said the minister who, 12 months ago, bucked the trend and maintained a yawning winning majority over his challenger from Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

Malaysia's next general election is four years down the road but a buzz remains in the air.

It is the sound of thunderous applause at political rallies held nightly by the opposition at hamlets all across the country. And it is the collective voice of Umno politicians seeking a chance to show that the results of the polls on Nov 29 last year were an aberration.

It is also the echo of the most-asked question today: Can the ruling party led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad reverse its losses in the Malay heartland if polls were held today?

The answer from ruling-party politicians is likely to be an honest 'no'.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi says it best: 'We are better today than we were. But we need to be much, much better than we are today. Once you slide, the climb back is difficult.'

For the ruling party, the slide was more like a free fall. At the last polls, five of its ministers were defeated, its share of the Malay votes shrunk from 63 per cent to 48.5 per cent, and the umbilical cord that linked it to the Malays was severed.

The swagger now belongs to the opposition. Ask young PAS MP Dr Syed Azman Syed Ahmad how well his party would do today, and he shoots back: 'We will win more seats and deny the government a two-thirds majority in Parliament.'

Without missing a beat, he adds: 'Seven out of 10 Malays support PAS.'His bold contention is made without raw data. Neither Umno nor the opposition has conducted an exhaustive survey on Malay-voter sentiment but issue-based polls conducted in the Klang Valley by government-linked think-tanks suggest that he is not indulging in hyperbole.

Also, Umno estimates say that only four out of 10 Malay voters in the Lunas by-election will cast their ballot for the National Front candidate.

If this trend continues, the ruling coalition could lose as many as 31 of its 143 seats in Parliament the next round, raising opposition numbers in the legislature from 50 to 81. These seats are in constituencies where Malays form between 60 and 80 per cent of the electorate.

Not everyone accepts this bleak picture, though. Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, a noted political analyst, believes that optimism is not necessarily blind.

He says that Umno's work over the past 12 months has been pleasing and deserves an optimistic outlook. Its report card should read: Improving but can do better.

'They are putting in place changes that will help the party. Not everything is flashy or earth-shattering but for Umno, every piece of the puzzle is important,' he notes.

One of the most important pieces was put in place on Nov 18 when a special assembly made a slew of changes to the party's constitution. Among the more notable moves involved removing a clause prohibiting the party from fielding new party members in the elections.

In the past, a person had to be a member for five years before being eligible to be fielded during the elections. This effectively blocked Dr Mahathir from fielding young Malay professionals - the type of candidates who share the aspirations and speak the language of the young.

At least, 800,000 newly-registered voters will be eligible to cast their ballots in 2004.

Other significant changes to the constitution make it easier for Malays to become a member of the party.

In the past, young and talented people wanting to join the party were at the mercy of insecure branch leaders, who operated under this motto: Cream must never be allowed to rise to the top.

Now, interested parties can short-circuit that tortuous route and submit their application to the top leadership.

But the party knows it is no longer merely a game of numbers. What matters is whether the membership has heart. Umno has 2.7 million members but at least 50 per cent of them are inactive, not registered as voters, or both.

The party has made it compulsory for members to be voters. In Malaysia, Umno is synonymous with the government. So, positive moves by the Mahathir administration have also helped the public image of the ruling political party.

None more so than the announcement that Datuk Dzaiddin Abdullah, 63, will become the Chief Justice in December. He has built a reputation for fairness, and his appointment was welcomed widely, notably by the Bar Council.

Mr Sulaiman Abdullah, the chairman of the Bar Council, said: 'This is a clear signal that the government is serious about the judiciary.' Unease over the judiciary goes back to the late 1980s when Dr Mahathir removed several senior judges. Since then, there has been criticism that the judiciary lacked independence in cases involving the government. These criticisms reached a crescendo after the jailing of Anwar Ibrahim and became an election issue among middle-class Malaysians.

Datuk Dzaiddin can add much-needed credibility to the judiciary. But there is a school of thought in Umno that believes that more should be done to show Malaysians at large that the party is firmly on the road to reform. NO HALF-MEASURES AFTER all, the bulk of five million Malay voters reside outside the party. This group of liberals are very much in the minority. They meet late into the night, drawing up strategies to cleanse the party but only meet inertia wherever they turn.

Mr Khairy Jamaluddin, a member of Umno's new Civil Action Bureau, notes: 'As a young Umno member, I see that a lot of emphasis since the elections has been placed on the need to rebuild the party on the inside... I agree that we have to have a united party, but beyond that, we have to attract people from outside Umno. If you are going to rely solely on Umno members, then you are going to have trouble.'

It is a view that was resonating along the corridors outside the Putra World Trade Centre on Nov 18 just after Dr Mahathir made another emotional appeal to delegates, asking them to spurn money politics. He asked them to gather evidence and report corrupt politicians to him. His plea invited apathy and scorn.

An Umno Supreme Council member said that only one person could clean up the party - Dr Mahathir.

'If he looks around, he will have no shortage of circumstantial evidence that can be used against party and government officials.'How is a division chief able to live in a huge bungalow and have a fleet of seven cars?'

Datuk Syed Hamid says that the eyes of the population are on the leadership. 'There cannot be a gap between words and action. The people are better-educated, more politically aware and they will not accept half measures.' FUNDAMENTALIST PARTY'S AGENDA THE Islamic fundamentalist party knows the voters well. It has cleverly clothed its Islamic agenda in the issues of the civil society. Now freedom of expression, human rights and justice are part of its message.Says Mr Khairy: 'To persuade fence-sitters, Umno needs to give them something more than a fear of PAS. If you take up the civil-society issue, then you send PAS back into its corner.'

Unfortunately, many of his party men are not on the same page. They cannot extract themselves from this web of money, patronage and infighting. It is their lifeline.

Others have another problem - amnesia. They refuse to believe that Umno is not the preferred choice of the Malay voter or that the electorate today demands representatives who are clean, hardworking and religious.

During a recent Cabinet meeting, ministers were told to cut down on overseas travel. The argument was quite simple: For every day they spend abroad, work at home and in the constituencies is being neglected.

Added a senior government official: 'Every day the opposition and their supporters are throwing accusations against the government. The minister must be around to answer these questions in Parliament or in their constituencies. Otherwise, the opposition will just get bolder.'Datuk Seri Abdullah got a peek of how aggressive the opposition has become.

On the way to campaign for the ruling coalition at the Lunas by-election, his motorcade was blocked partially by PAS supporters who had spilled onto the road.

Some unruly men came up to his window and showed him an assortment of provocative signs. All of a sudden, a motorcyclist drew near the DPM's car, revved his machine and shot off only when the police outriders threatened to take some action.

Still, some Umno members believe that the ruffians and their ilk can be won over.

Time is still on their side to get their party in order, win over the fence-sitters and regain their throne at the head of the table, these members argue. But time is evaporating, like uncovered turpentine. In just a short while, the can will be empty.