Jan 13, 2000
By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 13 (Reuters) - A spate of arrests in Malaysia appears targeted at the opposition but carries a heavy risk for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his heir apparent.

The arrests of a lawyer for jailed former finance minister Anwar Ibrahim and three others for sedition on Wednesday revived memories of a 1987 sweep on more than 100 opposition members.

But analysts, diplomats and opposition politicians said this week's crackdown did not seem to be on the same scale as 1987's Operation Lalang, and its implications were as much for Mahathir's party as for the opposition

They said the arrests would fan simmering discontent among members of Mahathir's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) who may have been hoping for change within the party.

``These arrests show that the leaders are still using old methodology in a new environment,'' said an aide to a senior UMNO politician.

``They are not learning the lesson that one has to be a bit more subtle when attacking the opposition. Many Malays will be dissatisfied over this.''

HARDLY AN EYEBROW RAISED

This week's arrests were made under the Sedition Act, not the harsher Internal Security Act (ISA) invoked during Operation Lalang, which allows indefinite detention without trial and which has been assailed by civil rights advocates around the world.

An increasing reluctance to use the ISA coincides with the opening up of Malaysia's economy to foreign investment and its integration into the world's financial and trading systems.

A repeat of Operation Lalang might have spooked many investors. But the arrests of Anwar's lawyer Karpal Singh, opposition politician Marina Yusoff and the editor and printer of the Islamic Party's newspaper Harakah hardly raised an eyebrow.

``It doesn't look like the opposition arrests are a factor at the moment,'' a dealer said as share prices on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange rose on Wednesday to their highest level in 2- years.

And although foreign and domestic human rights groups cried foul, even opposition leaders sounded a note of circumspection.

``Let us be patient and use whatever legal avenues to overcome the matter,'' The Star newspaper quoted opposition leader Fadzil Noor of the Islamic conservative Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) as saying.

Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, who is Anwar's wife and leader of the opposition Parti Keadilan Nasional, refused to be drawn into the controversy, saying the matter was up to the courts.

Their seeming calm highlighted a sense that the arrests had as much meaning for UMNO as for the opposition.

TIMING LOST ON NO ONE

The timing of the arrests -- on the day that Mahathir left for a two-week holiday -- was lost on no one.

Mahathir's hand-picked deputy and heir apparent, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, was left to try to quash rumours that a major round-up of opposition supporters was under way.

Analysts said Abdullah would inevitably be linked to the arrests by virtue of Mahathir's absence and his position as home minister in charge of police. That could burnish his standing among hardliners before UMNO leadership elections in May.

UMNO's policy-making Supreme Council recommended earlier this month that Mahathir and Abdullah be elected to the party's two top slots without opposition. The council said the no-contest recommendation would help avert debilitating infighting.

But it was badly received by some UMNO members concerned over the party's lacklustre showing in November's elections against an emboldened PAS in the northern Malay heartland states. Some of those have been calling for UMNO to open its doors to debate and soften its hardline stance against the opposition.

``We need to change our approach because our practices cannot be accepted by the people any more,'' former finance minister Razaleigh Hamzah said last week, coming out against a ban on Harakah.

Razaleigh and Defence Minister Najib Razak are considered the only two potential challengers to Abdullah, and there have been rumours they might eventually team up against Mahathir's deputy.

No one expects quick change in UMNO, but analysts said the arrests could drive a wedge between Abdullah and Razaleigh.

Tian Chua, vice president of the opposition Parti Keadilan Nasional, said the arrests could backfire on UMNO's current leadership.

``More people in UMNO are feeling uneasy with the hardline stance of the current leadership. Many feel UMNO needs to be a bit more conciliatory towards the opposition,'' he told Reuters.

``I think this will punish the image of the current leadership. Those perceived to be in charge may face more severe criticism by making such a provocative move.''