Introduction

Asia has always been the cradle of oriental culture amidst the vast lands, societies, systems and peoples. Although the continent is a colourful mixture of races, languages, religions & nations, the common denominator is the oriental culture. To analyse Asia either as a whole or as components is akin to holism and reductionism in engineering. In the humble view of the author, a viable starting point is the common underlying fundamentals of the subject, Asian oriental culture.

In order to produce predictions of any accuracy, it is fundamental to critically review the historical conditions as well as the direct and underlying factors leading to the existing Asia. Through this understanding and avoiding superficial projections of current trends, insights can be made towards the future scenario at least in concepts, if not in detailed events.

With a critical review of the internal conditions of culture towards the external system & societal conditions of history, economics, politics & social interactions, the relationships would be analysed. With the aim of extrapolating these fundamental relationships between the internal and external conditions, the future scenarios can be confirmed in the overview & predicted in the specifics.

Culture

As mentioned, Asia is a vibrant of diverse cultures of different origins with varied progression and following. Geographically, North Asia are heterogeneous in their cultural origins paved many ancient civilizations. Colonization of North Asia is far lesser than South Asia, where the people are mostly migrants from the North. As such, the South & South-East Asian regions are populated with heterogeneous cultures due to their ancestral links as well as the "Western" culture through colonization. With this inheritance as well as the oriental focus of following the natural & often spiritual ways, the North & South regions are culturally linked. Muslims of South Asia going on pilgrimage to Mecca, overseas Chinese to mainland China & Indians to India. The links are through the fundamentals of race, language, religion & nation.

With these links that are often passed down the generations due to cultural observation, cyclic natural ways and social rituals, emphasis is placed on education, community and conformity. Education, whether formal or informal, through schools or social rites, is the bedrock of Asian culture of tradition – the generational transmission of culture & the emotional-spiritual links that come with it. Community is crucial for survival, mutual support & prosperity. The Asian region is bounded by the extreme cold, tropics, Himalayan mountains and the Pacific Ring of Fire. With these harsh conditions, community ties & spirit is nurtured and passed on. Conformity, whether in expression or in emotions & spirits, is a necessary condition for community. Nurtured and passed on through educational focus, conformity underlies mutual harmony, reduction of mutual destruction by control, mass following of the leaders & the systems and obstruction towards extremism.

The internal condition of culture embodied within the Asians is the seed for the manifestation of various external conditions that lead to & form the existing Asia.

History

The history of Asia in the last century has been one of grabbling with internal chaos, colonization, mutual warring and gradual synchronization into the global village. In all phases of history, the culture of Asia not provides the seed, but also the underlying force for historical event manifestation and progression. The historical analysis of the last quarter-century is split into the economic, social and political components.

Economics

The Asian economies are of widely-diverse nature – from communist to free-market styles. This is due to influences by colonization, conformity to leaders and systems and ingrained education.

Communist economies of mainly China, Soviet Union, Vietnam and North Korea have fared the worst, in terms of urban development. The main ingredients of centralization, controls, leaderships and non-individualism stem from the cultural seeds of conformity, community and education. Although capable of total control, but these economies are rifted with corruption. However, these communist economies have been crumbling one by one in the last quarter century as the leaders, not the people, realize the inherent ineffectiveness and start opening up to foreign investment and the world at large. The reluctance of fully embracing the world economy is due to the communal instinct of defence to future colonization.

Free-market economies or those deferring in minute aspects are dependent on the historical development. The colonized South Asia has a higher degree of free-market economy than the North which has lower degree of colonization as well as contact & influence of the "West". The Asian free-market economies are to a large extent controlled by the stature (internal) or external authorities. Many economies have the currency peg to US dollar as it is the de facto standard. The government has a heavy hand on the economy as in the case of Singapore and Indonesia. It is the Asian culture of conformity to leadership and systems that is the seed of this development.

Social context

The social condition of Asia is slowly but surely changing especially due to economic development. The observed development from the advanced countries have been observed in Asia, especially in the more developed economies – drops in fertility, mortality, household size and multi-generation household as well as rises in aging, small households, female-headed households, celibacy, delayed marriages, divorces and single parents.

It has been said that the Asian culture is being eroded and the younger generations are leaving their culture behind. It is true in the observations of social changes brought about the waves of urbanization, consumerism and technology. However, the fundamentals that started the development are still in place & may well be expanding. Savings rate are high, emphasis on productivity, education, government-led changes and mass following of leaders – idols, politicians and businessmen. The targets have changed, but the social fundamentals remain intact.

Politics

The Asian politics is fertile ground for chaos, violence, coups and dynastic rule. In the North, Soviet Union had disintegrated into Russia and many other states; Japan, India and Pakistan have ever-changing political landscapes; Indonesia has been through turmoil from the transition from military to socialist rule; Philippines and Malaysia are more controlled while Singapore remains stable amidst the regional and now world economic slowdown.

Even though the political systems are changing, the underlying fundamentals are the same. In fact, countries like Russia, Vietnam and Indonesia have settled down to more controlled and sustainable states after the initial enthusiasm and fervor towards open, individual and extremist development. The source of this is due to the cultural seeds of community for survival and prosperity where everyone gives a bit in order to receive more. By settling on more stable and firm government, but less authoritarian historically, people are reaffirming their cultural conformity for mass following of leaders.

Development

Besides the above-mentioned aspects, a particular recent development in Asia is the economic slowdown which originated from the South-Asian economic crisis in 1997. As mentioned by Russell¹, with overly high expectations and cheap credit, drops in market capitalization, currency, US dollar returns and economic activities are inevitable. The reasons identified are immaturity of financial markets, the US dollar peg, protectionism and high-volatility hot money. These caused widespread unemployment, bankruptcy, resent towards the government and security issues. The Asian solution towards the crisis have been varied, but all centred on the cultural seeds of education-upgrading-retraining, community-rafting and conformity to new leaders and systems that are being designed and imposed.

In addition, the crisis has prompted the Asians to look deeply under the closet for the dirt of corruption, plagiarism and conservativeness as well as instill entrepreneurial spirit, discipline and transparency. Although the new values appear contrary to Asian culture, education is needed for enculturation, community support and conformity to the guided mainstream of high-spirited approach for recovery.

Existing trends

The existing trends can be classified as favourable and unfavourable towards development.

Favourable trends include technology-driven, new attitude towards government and entrepreneurship, fundamentals for growth remain within the cultural seeds, competitiveness through currency devaluation, high savings rate, strong work ethic, competitive spirit and resilience.

Unfavourable trends include population explosion, export dependency, weak infrastructure, protectionism, pollution, overcapacities and lack of political will.

The future

With internal and external conditions analysed, the existing trends uncovered and the cultural seeds explored, it is not difficult to project towards the next quarter-century. The cultural seeds of education, community and conformity would remain fundamental to Asia and its people. This is across all Asian nations, peoples of different races, languages and religions. Education would be used for enculturation, knowledge transmission and synthesis as well as thinking skills. Community would be emphasized in all events to involve people, abet through different means of consumerism, common interests and mutual needs. Conformity would be through the communal aspect of mutual co-existence as people realize the importance of their leaders and vice versa.

For specific scenarios and events, it is not difficult to predict that India (presently an emerging global IT power) and China (mass market and support) would lead the Asian economy and aspects of development. Japan would be a wildcard as its fundamentals are strong, however people are confused and distracted from their focus. Through turmoil and later stability, South-East Asia would be expected to pick up its economic crisis and recover mainly through prudence and transparent governance and spirited workforce. Russia due to its widespread corruption and criminal activities would still be having difficulties recovering to its Soviet glory. The criteria for Russian success is internal stability and community spirit.

As for the author who is incidentally a 25-year-old Singaporean, he would strive for regional business partner in high-tech engineering with the base in Singapore. Having been supported in the initial days by the government and community as well as bearing the Asian cultural seeds within his heart, the author strives for innovation through education, excellence with community and stability through conformity.

Reference:

[1] NBR Briefing, East Asia's Present and Future; George F. Russell, Jr.