Let�s play Guess the Oscars!
THE F&SN CRITIC PREDICTS THE 2002 NOMINEES FOR ACADEMY AWARDS�
Oscar nominations come out tomorrow. Let�s forget about whether they have any intrinsic value, or if they are, in the words of Woody Allen, �pointless.� We can talk about that some other day. Let�s just assume we�re all betting men, here for the sport, and see how well my Magic Eight Ball is working today.
EXPECT THESE MOVIES TO MAKE BIG SPLASHES�
My Magic Eight Ball tells me �Gangs of New York� will get nominations across the board for the big prizes: picture, director, acting, writing, and technical credits, getting between eight and eleven. Aside from it, Golden Globe-winner �Chicago� will probably be the only film nominated for picture, director, acting, writing, and serious visuals. Expect it also to land between six and ten nominations, and don�t be surprised if it wins.
�The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers� will probably get almost as many, with more technical and visual stuff, and music, but nothing for writing or acting. �The Two Towers� comes to the awards with three strikes against it: it�s a fantasy, it�s a sequel, and it�s not all that deep. Hopefully the Academy has had its fill of no-brainers like �Titanic� and �Gladiator.� �The Two Towers� is a technical and financial success, with mostly positive critical acclaim, but it�s silly to think a fantasy could pick up the big prize; the only films to ever incorporate the supernatural and still win Best Picture were �Hamlet� (1945), which featured the ghost of Hamlet�s father, and �Ben-Hur� (1959), with the Crucifixion. �Star Wars,� �2001: A Space Odyssey,� and �A Clockwork Orange� were all losers. And the only sequel to ever, ever, EVER win Best Picture was the best sequel of them all, �The Godfather Part II,� and if anyone tells you �The Two Towers� is on par with The Offer You Can�t Refuse, then you can slap him a few times for me.
With performances by past winners Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Nicholas Cage, and Kathy Bates, and past nominees Julianne Moore and Nicole Kidman, �The Hours,� �Adaptation,� and �About Schmidt� will come close to monopolizing the acting nominations. They will also be nominated for some combination of best picture and best director, but don�t expect them to win, and they�ll do well with the snooty awards like writing and film editing. Expect them to get anywhere between four and nine nominations each, with �Adaptation� making the smallest splash. Their art-house cousin, �Far From Heaven,� which STILL has not been seen in wide-release, might only pick some nominations for acting and writing.
Like �The Two Towers,� �Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones� will be nominated for some technical awards but will be rightly shut out in the acting and writing categories. �Minority Report� deserves all the technical nominations it can get. It will be sadly shunned for writing, directing, and acting, and its technical virtues will probably be eclipsed by those of �Star Wars� and �The Two Towers.�
The Oscars have a longer memory and more proletarian tastes than the Golden Globes, which means that the lightweight audience favorite �My Big Fat Greek Wedding� might squeeze into a few places. Latecomers �The 25th Hour,� �The Pianist,� �Confessions of a Dangerous Mind,� and �Nicholas Nickleby� will also be lucky to grab odds and ends in the acting, writing, and, in �Nickleby�s� case, costume or art design categories, but don�t expect them to win much. �Frida� will almost certainly get Salma Hayek nominated, but films from earlier in the year, like �Auto-Focus,� �Changing Lanes,� �13 Conversations About One Thing,� �One-Hour Photo,� �Signs,� and �Insomnia� will be mostly forgotten, and lucky to grab whatever paltry notice they can get.