Man Rated Launcher Photo: True or False? by Chen Lan

On May 9, 1999, someone posted two photos on "Chinese Military Forum". The first photo is a man-rated Long March (you can clearly see "CZ-2F" printed on the side of the booster) on the launch pad with the manned vehicle on top of it. A large building is in background. The second photo is a close-up view of the building where the rocket was rolling out. These two high resolution photos are very clear and show many details of the launcher and the launch facilities. The anonymous poster claims that the photos were scanned from a brochure of an Inner-Mongolian construction company, the probable contractor for the facilities. He also claims the photos were taken in May 1998 in Jiuquan.

The problem is, this forum is usually full of faked photos. No one confirmed them after they were posted. Instead, there were several postings casting doubt on them. One poster pointed out the close-up picture looks "unnatural" and the scale of the building and the rocket are inconsistent.

However, after careful study and comparing them to a large amount of existing photos, I still can not find strong enough evidence to prove they are faked. So I have to think they are "almost true".

Here are my reasons.

First of all, the photos are consistent with previous reports in the following details:

• The new manned launcher is called CZ-2F.
• The manned vehicle is Soyuz-like
• Manned flight will use a new, large launch site in Jiuquan.
• The new site will service both CZ-2F, CZ-E(A) and the future 20t class launcher. So a large Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) is necessary.
• There was reportedly a full exercise(rocket on pad) earlier last year (very possibly in May).

Second, it is possible for a construction company to take the photos on the facilities they built (VAB or launch pad/tower). It is also possible that the security rules are weak for a construction company that holds no space technology secrets. Perhaps they even do not know the difference between the secret CZ-2F and non-secret CZ-2E. Printing their building with a rocket on the brochure is very normal and reasonable.

Back to the photos themselves, what is the possibility to fake the photos using sophisticated graphics software and existing materials? Let's analyze the components in each photo one by one:

• The rocket
  It is very easy to add a Soyuz shroud onto the CZ-2E and modify the painting "2E" into "2F". I compared the Soyuz photo with it and found many differences. The cone angle is different, two additional thrusters (there may be another 2 at back side), escape tower a little bit smaller. Of course, these all can be faked by top experts (like CIA). Of cause... the right top border of the shroud is blurry... Any how, the possibility this is faked is about 50%.

• The launch tower
  It is obviously "China styled". I browsed photos for 5 existing towers in 3 launch sites. The conclusion is: it is a new one. It could be faked by modifying an existing tower photo, or by building a computer 3D model, or by photographing a "real model". All these methods should be difficult for an amateur.

• The launch pad
  It is obviously a mobile pad, something like that used by the U.S. Shuttle. China never used that before. Taiyuan and Xichang (pad A) use fixed pad and the rocket is assembled on site by a crane. Jiuquan and Xichang (pad B) use a mobile service tower, the rocket is assembled inside it. For the same reason as the launch tower, a totally new one is difficult to be faked.

• Vehicle Assembly Building
  It looks like the NASA KSC VAB. I carefully compared it with a NASA photo. I found many detail differences. The stairs and windows on both sides, the top corner detail, the scale, the bottom detail... However, the close-up VAB photo looks "very faked" indeed. I guess it is a composite photo by the construction company using their architectural model and the CZ-2F rocket model. These models should be same as the real ones. So, it is still a "true" photo.

At last, the light, scale and detail of the first photo look very "natural". If they are faked photos, the maker must be a top computer graphics expert with excellent space knowledge. And we still should find some "faking evidence" on that. Unfortunately I found nothing.

I believe, at least, the photos contain some "truth". That is, the photos are true, or they are "composite photos" based on true models, or even modified "true photos" to avoid "secrets leakage" (especially the manned payload part).

OK, that's all for the "true or false". Now you may ask a question, what do these photos tell if they are true? A lot. It will be Soyuz like but with many differences. I have already mentioned the shroud differences. Are these 4 additional thrusters the backup escape system? From the door size of VAB, can you estimate the maximum size of the future large launcher, and even the shuttle?

Fortunately, it will be made clear soon.

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