Phillip Clark
This is the original, unedited text which was published in 'LaunchSpace', Oct/Nov 1998 Issue.
The Chinese space program in recent years has been punctuated by well-publicized launch failures interrupting strings of unpublicized launch successes, giving rise to the myth that the Chinese space program is one with low reliability and not in the same class as the programs run by other space powers.
Following high-profile launch vehicle failures, the Chinese have had a string of successes since late 1996. In some U.S. political quarters, these successes owe nothing to the Chinese ability to overcome problems, but are simply due to American help in improving the launch vehicles. Such a claim is an insult to the Chinese engineers and designers. Substantial evidence exists to give substance to China's announcements it plans to begin manned space launches in the second half of 1999.
Starting in the 1970s
The Chinese recovered their first Fanhui Shi Weixing (FSW) satellite from orbit Nov. 29, 1975, succeeding at their first recovery attempt. In this they equaled the Russians, who succeeded on their first recovery attempt, Korabl Sputnik 2. It was not until Discoverer 13 that the United States finally succeeded in recovering a satellite from orbit.
The Chinese recovery led to speculation about a manned program, but in reality, the FSWs were akin to scaled-up Discoverer/Corona satellites with reconnaissance as the primary mission. In all, nine FSW-0 satellites were launched and recovered, five FSW-1s were launched with only the last one failing to return to Earth, and three FSW-2 satellites have been launched and recovered.
Clearly, the Chinese have mastered one important procedure for a manned flight. But they weren't planning to fly people into space in the late 1970s. Rather, although interested in a manned space program, they were only doing the basic ground-based research that such a program would require.
China's "Project 921" manned space program
In November 1988, the Chinese propaganda publication China Pictorial included a series of photographs that apparently showed more men undergoing medical tests while dressed in spacesuits rather than simple pressure suits. It looked as if the Chinese manned program was "on" again.
Two years before, the Chinese had revealed plans for a whole family of new launchers derived from the successfully flown CZ-2C, which could place 2.5 tons into a low-Earth orbit, and the CZ-3, capable of lifting 1.5 tons into a geosynchronous transfer orbit.
When reviewing these vehicles for the July/August 1987 issue of the British Space magazine, this writer identified the CZ-2/4L (today's CZ-2E) as being particularly applicable for manned launches: with an 8.8 ton LEO capability, it could place a Soyuz-class space station ferry into orbit.
Over the last few years, details have started to appear concerning Chinese plans to put people into orbit. Known by its code name, "Project 921," the plan includes flying two astronauts aboard a spacecraft bearing many similarities to the Russian Soyuz which, in turn, was similar to some early 1960s Apollo concepts; the launcher will be a man-rated version of the CZ-2E. The Chinese have bought examples of Russian space technology (e.g., a Soyuz-TM life-support system, an androgynous docking unit and a pressure suit as used by cosmonauts), but they are not copying these - they are learning from them and then applying what they learn to their program.
Having a mass of about 8.4 tons, the Chinese spacecraft has two major external differences compared with Soyuz - it has two pairs of solar panels for the generation of onboard power and the forward module is distinctly cylindrical compared to the spheroid on Soyuz. Additionally, it is thought that up to four people could fly inside the Chinese spacecraft.
From the outset, the Project 921 spacecraft will be equipped with an androgynous docking system and an internal transfer tunnel, which the original Soyuz did not carry. This means that early in their program, two Project 921 spacecraft can be docked nose-to-nose and the two crews can move from one craft to another. When the Russians first did this with Soyuz 4/Soyuz 5 in January 1969, they had no transfer tunnel and two cosmonauts had to perform a spacewalk for their transfer. Two docked Chinese craft could act as a small orbital station for a few weeks, as a precursor to a larger, dedicated space station.
One of the launchers proposed in the mid-1980s was a CZ-3/8L, which essentially has become the three-stage CZ-3B but with eight strap-on boosters instead of four. A logical derivative of this concept would have been a CZ-2/8L, without the third stage. The payload capability would be 16 to 17 tons to LEO. This is heavy enough to launch a space station similar in concept to the original Russian Salyuts of the 1970s and early 1980s.
Satellite images have shown a new launch complex has been built at the Jiuquan launch site, one capable of launching larger vehicles than those that have flown from that site to date. Now confirmed by the Chinese, this launch pad is compatible with a planned all-new family of medium/heavy-lift launch vehicles - believed to be using LOX/kerosene in their lower stages rather than the Chinese standard N2O4/UDMH - as well as the existing CZ-2E vehicle. It is this pad that will be used for launches under Project 921.
What can we expect in the near future? Before the end of 1998, the Chinese should have test-flown both the man-rated CZ-2F vehicle and the Project 921 spacecraft without a crew. A second successful test in the first half of 1999 would clear the way for a two-man launch before the end of that year, conveniently tying it in with the 50th anniversary of the communist takeover of China. A nose-to-nose docking of two Project 921 craft should come two years later.
If all goes according to plan, during late 1999 or early 2000 China will become the third nation to launch its own people into orbit.
Phillip Clark has been studying the former-Soviet space program since the late 1960s and the Chinese program since the first launch in 1970. He publishes the monthly Worldwide Satellite Launches.