China - The Next Independent Man-in-Space
Programme ?

Phillip Clark

This is the original, unedited text which was published in 'Jane's intelligence Review', April 1997 (pages 178-182) underthe title 'Chinese Designs on the Race to Space'.

In recent years the Chinese space programme has received a bad reputation in the western press as a result of four apparent launch vehicle failures. At the end of 1992 the American-built Optus-B 2 was lost in a launch mishap which was widely portrayed as a failure of the Chinese CZ-2E launch vehicle. Chinese statements (for example in the user manual for their CZ-3A/3B/3C launch vehicles) that their launch vehicle performed flawlessly and there was a fault with the satellite causing it to explode during the ascent to orbit have been either ignored or ridiculed in western aerospace reports.

The loss of Optus-B 2 was apparently repeated in January 1995 when APStar 2 was lost in an almost-identical failure - the difference being that this time the satellite explosion caused the whole launch vehicle to explode shortly after launch. Again, the western aerospace press blamed the "inferior" Chinese space programme.

In 1996 there were two launch vehicle failures which were definitely the fault of the Chinese launch vehicles: in February INTELSAT 708 was lost on the maiden flight of the CZ-3B and in August Zhongxing 7 was stranded in a useless orbit when the CZ-3 third stage shut down earlier than planned.

With this record of well-publicised apparent and real failures and little western coverage of successful Chinese missions, Chinese claims of a manned space programme have been looked upon as "wishful thinking" outside China, but evidence is growing that the Chinese are working towards the launch of a domestic manned spacecraft around the turn of the millennium.

ACTIVITY DURING THE 1970s

The Chinese have flown small animals on orbital missions and dogs have flown sub-orbital missions on sounding rockets for many years.

In December 1975 when the Chinese recovered their first FSW-0 photoreconnaissance/remote sensing satellite there were some western reports that this achievement would lead to the development of a manned space capability. Although the satellite recovery made China the third nation (following the United States and the Soviet Union) to develop the technology to return spacecraft from orbit, we now know that the FSW family of satellites was totally unconnected with any manned programme - the spacecraft was simply far too small to carry even a single astronaut (the FSW satellite programme has been discussed in "China's Recoverable Satellite Programme", Jane's Intelligence Review, November 1993, pp 517-522).

Having said this, behind the scenes the Chinese were apparently working towards a manned space capability. In the late 1970s some photographs were released which appeared to show Chinese astronaut-candidates undergoing medical training and spacecraft simulator familiarisation, thus indicating that the Chinese had more than simply dreams of a manned programme. While some western writers saw the interior shots of the simulators as indicating a spaceplane programme, others saw something more akin to the two-man US Gemini spacecraft (flown 1964-1966) or the Soviet two/three-man Soyuz spacecraft (first launched in 1966).

It is not clear whether the Chinese candidates were simply undertaking research into the requirements for space missions or whether an actual spacecraft programme was being funded. Certainly, there were no launches in this period which could be taken as indicating that a potential manned vehicle was being tested. Perhaps there was simply funding which allowed preliminary biomedical and systems research without any commitment to the development of actual hardware.

INTO THE 1980s

The Chinese manned programme appeared to die a death after the release of the late-1970s photographs, although there were some opportunities for the flight of a Chinese astronaut aboard foreign spacecraft.

With the easing of political relations with the United States and the opening up of the Chinese space programme for commercial opportunities, the United States offered to fly a Chinese astronaut aboard a space shuttle mission. Other foreign payload specialists had flown the shuttle and even some American politicians had completed a ride into space. The American offer was made as part of the technical discussions held during a visit to China by President Reagan in April-May 1984. The Chinese astronaut could fly as a payload specialist aboard the shuttle, conducting Chinese experiments or during the launch of a Chinese satellite from the shuttle.

It is not known how far this proposal progressed within China. However, this route for a Chinese manned presence in space closed with the loss of the Challenger shuttle orbiter in January 1986, before any Chinese astronaut candidates had gone to the United States to begin their training.

Starting in 1978 the Soviet Union had been flying "guest cosmonauts" from Soviet-Bloc and other, more Soviet-friendly, countries to the Salyut 6 and 7 orbital stations for eight-day missions, and this programme was planned to continue with the establishment of the Mir space station launched in 1986. In fact, that year Mikhail Gorbachev is said to have offered a ride to Mir to the Chinese, but there is no evidence that the Chinese seriously considered this option.

At the end of the 1980s the domestic manned space programme seemed to be active once more, with the publication of more photographs of apparent astronaut-trainees undergoing biomedical testing and training. The Chinese also started to talk about an independent manned capability, involving a limited space station programme. The programme appears to have had the overall Chinese designation "Project 921".

The then-flight-proven CZ-2C could loft 2.5 tonnes into a low orbit from Jiuquan (more if it were to be launched from the more southerly Xi Chang site) and this would permit the launch of a single-man Mercury-type mission: the one-man United States Mercury spacecraft had masses of up to 1.4 tonnes. The launch of a Gemini-type mission (3.7-3.8 tonnes with two men) is beyond the CZ-2C's payload capability but could possibly be conducted by the CZ-2D (which has a claimed 3.6 tonnes capability to a low Earth orbit).

If the Chinese are serious in being interested in launching a space laboratory, probably similar to the Soviet Salyut series, then they would require a Soyuz-type spacecraft: the Soyuz series started with masses of about 6.5 tonnes and the Soyuz-TM version is just over seven tonnes.

By the mid-1980s the Chinese had announced plans for a series of launch vehicles beyond the then-flying CZ-2C and CZ-3, and for the first time the Chinese appeared to be developing launch vehicles which could support manned launches. One vehicle which was designated CZ-2/4L - which evolved into the CZ-2E - appeared to be particularly applicable for launching a manned ferry to a space station, something which this writer suggested in mid-1987 ("Long March Revealed", published in the July-August 1987 issue of Space magazine). The payload capability of this vehicle to low Earth orbit is approximately nine tonnes.

Of course, the Chinese having launch vehicles which can support a manned programme does not mean that the vehicles will be used in this way. It is possible that a new family of launch vehicles is under development which might support this programme (at least in part), something which is discussed later in this article.

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 1990s

Following the maiden flight of the CZ-2E in 1990 it was reported in Aviation Week & Space Technology (December 10, 1990, page 24) that China had begun studies of a four-man spacecraft which could be launched on the CZ-2E.

In October 1994 a brochure issued by the Chinese Aerospace Corporation (CASC) included a drawing of a four-module Chinese space station in orbit, apparently without a manned ferry craft attached. Assuming that any significance can be attached to the drawing, each of the modules appears to be of the same general size as the Soviet Salyut space stations, suggesting a mass of around 15-20 tonnes.

The text which accompanied the illustration included the following comments (quoted exactly):-

We are taking an active attitude to carry on the study of manned space flight and space station technologies. In line with the principal of mutual benefit and the peaceful uses of outer space, CASC is willing to develop new space technologies jointly with the foreign space organisations all over the world for the purpose of making benefit to the mankind

On March 14, 1995 ITAR-TASS reported that the Chinese were expressing an interest in purchasing equipment which could be used for a manned space programme. The areas of interest were "systems of emergency rescue and thermal control, as well as other joints and units, including the docking system". A complete Soyuz life-support system was also said to have been purchased. It was stated that China is planning a manned mission during 2000-2002 and later - about 2015 - the Chinese intend to build an orbital station.

In July 1996 visitors to Zvezdny Gorodok, the Russian cosmonaut training centre, were told by the head of international relations that a group of Chinese astronauts would be arriving in October 1996 to undergo the complete training programme. It was believed that 6-10 people would be arriving and that an agreement would be signed which would lead to two being trained (for prime and back-up crews) specifically for a visit to the Mir Complex about two years later. The other Chinese trainees - one assumes - would be undergoing the full training programme as preparation for a Chinese domestic manned space programme.

October 1996 saw the annual International Astronautical Federation congress being held in Beijing and Chinese officials were asked about a possible manned space effort. The responses ranged from outright denial that such a programme existed through to admitting that such a programme was underway. No Chinese confirmation was forthcoming concerning the Russians training astronaut-candidates at Zvezdny Gorodok, but Russian sources at the training centre (including the reliable Videocosmos organisation) confirmed that about 18 Chinese had arrived there in early October, although it was unclear how many would actually undergo flight training.

On December 18, 1996 the ITAR-TASS news agency reported that two "Chinese cosmonauts" named Wu Tse and Li Tsinlung had begun the training programme at the Zvezdny Gorodok centre. The announcement noted that:-

This is the first occasion that foreign "graduates" of the Centre are to undertake a mission on a foreign - in this case Chinese - spacecraft, rather than a Russian orbiting station.

It was further noted that these two Chinese trainees had been selected for the Chinese national astronaut team in March 1995. It is planned that they will complete a year-long general space training course, including three months of learning Russian, physical training and familiarisation with the technical details of orbital missions.

The Russian report indicated that the two men would return to China and that the first launch of a two-manned spacecraft is planned for 1999 in celebration of the 50th anniversary of the creation of the People's Republic of China.

A FUTURE NEW LAUNCH VEHICLE FAMILY ?

It has been widely reported that the Chinese are building new launch facilities at the Jiuquan launch site and that these will be used in support of a new family of launch vehicles for a manned programme. Since the 1980s the Chinese have admitted that they are working on a Saturn-1 class launch vehicle without giving any real details about the project. On October 31, 1992 the Zhongguo Tongxun She news agency in Hong Kong reported that:-

Relevant sources in China's Ministry of Aeronautics and Astronautics Industry have disclose that China's first manned space shuttle will be launched from Jiuquan, Gansu.

According to the information, a space centre designed by Chinese engineers alone, is being built 200 km from Jiuquan City and the construction of a 200 km special railway to the centre has begun. The first phase of the project is expected to be completed towards the end of the 1990s.

At present all the technical officials concerned have taken up their positions. The person in charge here said: "The launch and retrieval of the first space shuttle will take place in the new space centre and the bases in its vicinity. It will take about ten years to accomplish this grand project."

It is now reported that the rail transportation system has been completed and that the launch pad assemblies indicate a launch vehicle far larger than the currently-existing family of Chang Zheng vehicles.

A paper was presented at the 1992 IAF Congress entitled "A Modular Space transportation System" (IAF-92-0857), which described a possible family of future launch vehicles derived from a basic two-stage vehicle which could be clustered in different ways and which could be supplemented additional upper stages. It is unclear whether this paper represents a purely theoretical exercise or whether it is indicative of Chinese planning for future launch vehicles.

The idea behind the paper is the development of a baseline two-stage launch vehicle with the characteristics listed in Table 1.

The Chinese paper notes that the first stage fuel would be a "hydrocarbon (CH)" and this is taken to refer to kerosene - especially since the Chinese would later express an interest in purchasing Russian liquid oxygen/kerosene engines (to be discussed later).

The use of liquid oxygen and kerosene on the first stage of this vehicle would mark a departure for the Chinese, since they have previously used storable UDMH and a nitrogen-derived oxidiser (usually nitrogen tetroxide). The choice of storable propellants is a result of the current launch vehicles being based upon missiles for which storable propellants is virtually essential.

The study called for a baseline vehicle with a length of less than 60 metres and a length/diameter ratio below 13. The study took the diameters of the two stages to be a common 4.5 metres which corresponded to a maximum length of 58.5 metres: in fact, a length of 55 metres was decided upon, including a payload fairing of 12 metres.

Data for the overall launch vehicle are:-

• launch mass 377 tonnes
• payload capability 11 tonnes
• length 55 metres
• diameter 4.5 metres
• first stage thrust 4.8 MN [490 tonnes]

One table in the paper notes a launch mass of 337 tonnes, but elsewhere the mass is quoted as 377 tonnes, a figure which is confirmed from simple arithmetic. The numbers imply that the payload shroud would have a mass of three tonnes. The payload mass is quoted in the paper for a 60o, 300-500 km orbit: from calculations by this writer these figures would mean a launch from Jiuquan with a good margin of residual propellant.

On top of the second stage an instrument unit 1.6 metres high would be carried, acting as a data-collection and processing centre for the vehicle.

The first stage would carry four engines which can gimble for control. The second stage a single main engine and a set of four verniers.

Taking this base design, it is proposed that a three-stage launch vehicle could be developed which could place 6 tonnes into geosynchronous transfer orbit: although not stated, one assumes that the third stage would use liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen - already in use with the existing CZ-3 and CZ-3A launch vehicles.

A series of different launch vehicles derived from the baseline launch vehicle's stages and the not-described third stage is proposed, leading to a maximum payload capability of 70 tonnes to the standard 60o, 300-500 km reference orbit. Details are given in Table 2. For the larger payloads a fairing with a diameter of 5.4 metres and a length of 18 metres would be used.

Thinking in terms of a manned programme, one can imagine that the baseline vehicle could be used to launch the manned spacecraft, while a "Model 1" derivative could be used to launch a space station module.

While the concepts of the 1992 paper are interesting and would represent an extension of the existing Chinese philosophy of taking the basic CZ-2C launch vehicle and modifying it to provide the full variety which we see in the CZ-2, CZ-3 and CZ-4 families, we have no idea whether the 1992 proposals will remain a paper study or will become (or even is !) a funded programme.

PURCHASING RUSSIAN ENGINE TECHNOLOGY

Bearing the 1992 study in mind, it is of interest that the Chinese have been trying to purchase liquid oxygen and kerosene rocket engines from Russia. They expressed an interest in purchasing RD-170 engines (one was used on each of the four strap-ons of the Energiya shuttle launch vehicle and a modification called RD-171 is used on the first stage of the Zenit-2 launch vehicle) and RD-120 engines (used on the second stage of the Zenit-2 launch vehicle). Details of these engines are given in Table 3.

The Russians had no interest in selling the RD-170 class engines to the Chinese since these are the most powerful engines currently in use anywhere in the World: they surpass the United States F-1 engines used on the Saturn-5 launch vehicle during the late 1960s and early 1970s

On the other hand, the Chinese have purchased RD-120 engines. While the RD-120 itself has been used as the main engine on the second stage of the Zenit launch vehicle, the Russians are planning to introduce a modification designated RD-120K as the first stage of their new Rus/Soyuz-2 family of launch vehicles. It is not known whether the Chinese purchased the RD-120 itself or the more recent RD-120K modification.

One might speculate that if the launch vehicle family proposed in the 1992 IAF paper is being funded, then modifications of the RD-120 engine (with higher thrust levels) could see an application of the first stage of the baseline launch vehicle. However, it must be stressed that this is currently pure speculation.

EXPECTATIONS FOR A CHINESE PROGRAMME

Although it seemed likely that the first Chinese astronaut will fly in the "third seat" of a Russian Soyuz-TM spacecraft as a commercial guest cosmonaut (the last free ride with the Russians was at the end of 1988) visiting the Mir space station complex, there has been no Russian confirmation of this. Only two names of candidates undergoing Russian training have been released, although other reports have suggested that a larger group of Chinese are actually going through the Russian training process.

At the October 1996 IAF Congress the Chinese mentioned (without going into many details) that an unmanned test flight of a future manned "shuttle" was planned for 1999. Whether this will be a small spaceplane "shuttle" or a "shuttle" in the same sense that the Soyuz spacecraft acts as a "shuttle", taking crews to and from the Mir Complex is unclear. In this writer's opinion a spaceplane is too ambitious for a first manned spacecraft and the Chinese are more likely to develop a Soyuz-class spacecraft.

With astronaut-candidates having completed their Russian training in 1998, they would return to China and immediately bring their experiences to a domestic manned programme - a scenario for which a launch in 1999-2000 is perfectly reasonable if unmanned tests of the launch vehicle and spacecraft are successful.

Once the Chinese have proved that they have developed their independent launch capability for manned access to space, they could begin negotiations for a presence aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Perhaps the modules for the CASC space station concept could be integrated with the ISS, just as Russian and European are planned to operate with United States modules. This would truly mark the acceptance of the Chinese as major and equal players in the World's space programmes.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Phillip Clark would like to thank Ralph F Gibbons for preparing the illustrations (based upon Chinese originals) of the CASC space station complex and the possible new launch vehicles.

Table 1 Baseline Launch Vehicle for 1992 Chinese Study

Notes The data for this Table are primarily extracted from the second part of Table 1 in the paper "A Modular Space Transportation System" by Xiandong Bao (IAF-92-0857). The figures marked * are conversions of the numerical data in the original table. Figures in square brackets are estimated vacuum performance data, derived from scaling-up the sea level data given in the original paper.

Table 2 Derived Launch Vehicles for 1992 Chinese Study

Notes This Table is a modified version (for clarity) of Table 2 in the paper "A Modular Space Transportation System" by Xiandong Bao (IAF-92-0857). The following abbreviations are used: CS1 - baseline vehicle core stage 1, CS2 - baseline vehicle core stage 2, SS1 - a special first stage core which has a cluster of two baseline vehicle core stage 2 engines. The launch thrusts are sea level values and the values in tonnes are slightly rounded following conversion from the values in mega-newtons given in the original paper. All of the payloads are scaled to a standard orbit of 60o, 300-500 km.

Table 3 Summary of Russian RD-171 and RD-120 Rocket Engines

Note This Table is a modified version of Table A.3-1 in the Molniya Space Consultancy Report "Little-Used, Future and Retired FSU Launch Vehicles".

HOME | EMAIL