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The first suspicion that China would launch a manned spacecraft into space raised in when China recovered a satellite from orbit in 1975. Manned spacecraft is really a natural next step after that. Such an achievement also has great political and military value that China urgently need at that time like Soviet in 50s and 60s. It became clear in later 70s that the program really started but it was just the beginning of a long story.
In 1979, A Shanghai newspaper, Wen Hui Bao, published a photo shown a Chinese astronaut in training in space suit and a helmet. Soon later, another Shanghai based magazine, Science Pictorial, released more detailed astronaut training photos. These color photos shown the simulated space cabin, space suit, and even space food clearly. The magazine also revealed the largest centrifuge in Asia used in astronaut traning. It seemed that a manned flight was not far from then. It was even believed some spacecraft prototypes had been built at that time. But many years have past, such a flight never took place.
Now we know, the manned program was suspended by political reason although technical and funding problems exist too. From the end of 70s, the economic reform in China began and it greately had changed the shape of China in following years. More national economy related projects instead of manned program obtained high poirity. Projects such as Long March 3, communication satellite and meteorological satellite have been well known. In fact, all these projects were completed as planned in 80s. However, the manned program was never cancelled but obviously postponed. Research work in the Institue of Space Medicine, one of the most important organizations in manned space program created in late 60s, still continued though slowly. In 1986, China's most important newspaper People's Daily reported China has made "great progress" in manned space program and the day it launches the first Chinese astronaut into space was "not far off".
At the end of 80s, after 10 years of economy growth and solid successes in space development, China announced an ambitious manned space program that includes a small shuttle, a small space station and a series of new launchers. The plan was very similar to the European manned space program at about the same time, but without a timetable and technical details. I once heard that the shuttle was a two-stage horizontal take-off/landing system like German Sanger. Unfortunately, the program seemed suspended again except for the launchers. The technical difficulty was probably the major obstacle for this time. The shuttle and station were apparently postponed if not cancelled. The Chinese manned program continued but believed fell back to the conventional capsule design.
After Sino-Soviet relationship was re-established in 1989 and the former Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, China engaged more and more cooperation with the Russians. Many Chinese space delegations have visited Russia since early 90s. One noticeable progress was on April 25, 1996 when Yuri Koptev, director-general of Russian Space Agency visited China, Russia and China signed a government agreement on space cooperation. No details about the agreement have been revealed. There are rumors about Chinese purchasing of Soyuz components, especially the 'Kurs' navigation/docking subsystem. Some also suggest that the Chinese may participate in a joint flight to Mir onboard Soyuz and use Russia based tracking network for the manned flight. The latest event was about two Chinese candidates participated astronaut training in Star City in November 1996. They have finished the training and returned to China in late 1997. Their training was 'General Space Training' instead of mission specific training, according to the report. Analysts believe they will be the'instructors' to train other astronauts to take part in a Chinese manned flight. For the joint Mir mission, it is still in the air. Recently announced Mir launch schedule (from now till 1999 when planned deorbiting begin) does not include such a flight. The Chinese-Russian joint crew may never fly.
Before 1996, Chinese media and foreign observers all implied manned flight would happen in early next century. But surprisingly, in October 1996, when IAF '96 opened in Beijing, China announced the plan to launch a manned spacecraft around October 1999 when the nation celebrate her 50th anniversary. A later report said the manned spacecraft has already in 'Engineering phase', and that clearly suggests detail design or even manufacturing is underway.
The latest announcement came in March 1998 when a space conference/exhibition held in Beijing. A leading Chinese space scientist said the manned flight will be "in near future". "China is striving to make breakthroughs in manned space flight technology at the end of this century or the beginning of the next century". The timeline in the statement is blur but 1999 is still possible. The material released at the exhibition also shows the future Chinese space station could be composed of two small modules.
Another clue related with manned space program is that China is developing a new Long March launcher for manned flight. Some reports, including an article at the official Aerospace China magazine implied the new launcher is an improved Long March 2E. On March 18 1998, Chinese Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) official website released a drawing that shows the Long March family being developed by CALT. The picture includes a new model named LM 2E(A) with increased LEO capacity of up to 12 tones. It is very likely the manned launcher. Another message from China said the construction of a new pad for the improved 2E has been started in Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.
Undoubtedly, the Chinese manned spacecraft will be based on the successful recoverable satellite(FSW) technology. FSW has conducted 16 successful flights and only saw one failure since 70s. FSW has 3 variations. The latest model weighs 2.8t and has 15 days orbit life, which is comparable to Soviet's Vostok and US Mecury. The Chinese manned spacecraft is believed similar to Russian Soyuz, especially considering some of its components may be bought from Russia. In fact, those have known some details of the manned vehicle, which was unveiled by a CASC delegation during a visit to French in early 1998, said "The vehicle has a great resemblance to the Russian Soyuz". For Long March 2E and 2E(A) has 9.2t to 12t LEO capacity, 6-10 tonnes would be a reasonable guess for the total launch mass of the Chinese spaceship.
On the other hand, China never stopped the space life research in 30 years. It launched dogs and mice on suborbital flights in the mid 1960s. In 1990, China launched a biosat, carrying sixty animals and plants, including rats and guinea pigs, and returned to ground safely. I believe China already have the life support system enough to make a short space flight.
China also announced that it is developing a 20t Proton class new launcher. People believe it will be used to launch the space station. But according to the recent information, the Chinese "space station" is simply two docked space capsules. I don't think China will launch a "real" space station in 10 years. Another interesting possibility is China's participating in the International Space Station. It is one natural result after a successful manned flight. Perhaps one day we will see a Chinese module attached on ISS.
If everything goes well as expected, next year we should see the first Chinese manned spacecraft launched into space. It would be an important event in history... I will be holding my breath... or have to be patient if it gets delayed again.
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