Rumor About A Chinese Military Satellite

Chen Lan

On May 25, 1997, Reuters released a news from Beijing:

China has successfully launched a satellite for defense use, mainland sources said yesterday. The sources said the satellite was launched last week, but did not give details of its role or say what type of rocket was used. "The satellite is for defense purposes," one source said. "The launch was successful." Other sources confirmed the blast-off, but did not comment on the mission's objectives.

Strangely, it is the only report about this launch. No official announcement or report since then. Even after nearly one year later, there is still no evidence to confirm this launch. I only found a very little information about it. Florida Today, a well-known space news, mentioned this launch when it was reporting Agila 2 Long March 3B launch on August 19. It said "The flight is the second public launch for the new generation Long March 3B vehicle. The first launch attempt failed in February 1996. Media reports, however suggest a Long March 3B was used to successfully place a military satellite into orbit earlier this year".

It sounds possible. From the day China provided commercial launch service, for all new models used for commercial launches the Chinese had conducted test launches before put them into use, except for the 3B. Long March 2E and 2C/SD are the examples. The first 3B failed in early 1996, which is the second setback in a little more than one year. The first launch (Agila 2 launch) after the disaster was vital to Long March. So it's reasonable to make a test launch prior to that launch. An experimental military satellite is the possible payload for such a launch.

Another reason to believe it really heppend is that China had not had a pure military satellite for many years. The recoverable satellites were for reconnaissance purpose in 70s and early 80s, but their role was changed to civilian imaging and microgravity experiments more and more from late 80s. Analysts in the west suspect China has been developing new military imaging satellites and early warning satellites. I'm also sure there must be some military space projects undergoing.

In the online forum on Internet, people have talked about this launch but no one can provide the evidence that it happened. Someone believe it was an early warning satellite.

Suppose that launch really took place. What could this launch be? From the information in above few reports, the launch could be:

A Long March rocket, most possibly the Long March 3B, launched from Xichang Satellite Launch Center during May 19 to 24, 1997, sending an experimental military payload into orbit successfully. The payload could be an early warning satellite.

Unfortanately, there is still no evidence that could comfirm it. I tried to collect clues from Internet and other sources. But the result brings me to an opposite direction. I have now more and more reasons to believe it never happened:

• In 30 years of China space history, all successful launches were announced including several military launches in 70s. That was during the cold war era and late Culture Revolution. It's hard to imagine that today China still keeps the iron curtain. Should know the announcement of a successful launch will help rebuild the confidence of Long March, especially in early 1997.
• Official announcements from many sources has mismatched with this launch. China announced 50th Long March launch(Iridium launch on March 25, 1998) recently. If you count all known launches(50 Long March and 8 Feng Bao, see my Launch Vehicle page), you may find this mysterious launch is not included. China announced in 1996 and 1997 that there would be 2 domestic launches in 1997. It doesn't inlcude it too. China announced 6 successful launches in 1997, which still doesn't include this launch.
• China launched a DFH-3 comsat on May 12 from Xichang. If the mysterious military launch used Long March 3B, 3A or 2E, it's almost impossible to launch 2 rockets within 10 days from Xichang where there is only one pad available for 2E, 3A and 3B (an old pad is for 3).
• I have been searching for its observing or tracking evidence in the Internet including SPACEWARN bulletin, SeeSat-L and CelesTrak website's NORAD database but all failed. Object with NORAD catalog number 24753 - 24818 were found from early April to May 24, 1997. All belong to known launches except for two objects indentified as debris of old satellites launched in 1960s. It's hard to believe the most powerful space radar systems of NORAD would miss an at least hundreds kilogram class satellite. Those systems reportedly can track baseball size objects in space.

My conclusion is that it did NEVER happen. I don't mean Reuters report is totally wrong. Something still could have happened. There are following possiblities:

• It was just the DFH-3 launched on May 12 while some of its transponders are used for military use. The message might has been misread before it reached Reuters, which led a so called military launch.
• It was a small sat launched as a piggyback payload on May 12 launch, like SJ-4 with DFH-3 mockup on first Long March 3A. This was a samll military experimantal satellite.
• It was a test model on a suborbital launch by Long March 2 or 1D.

Chinese space program is still not transparent in western standard but has changed much in the last 20 years. I believe such changes will continue and it will be not long my conclusion proven correct or wrong.

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