Strained relations between US & Israel

HA'ARETZ 3/3/99: "In a further aggravation of the already strained relations between Israel and the United States, the Clinton Administration is holding up the transfer of the $1.2 billion in special aid promised Israel upon the signing of the Wye accord last October, citing Israel's announcemet that it was delaying implementation of the agreement.

However, the Palestinian Authority will get the $400 million a year in aid pledged to it by the United States in the wake of Wye. (Prior to the Wye accord the PA received $100 million a year.) The issue was addressed recently by Stuart Eizenstat, U.S. undersecretary of state for economic affairs, on a visit to Israel.

Eizenstat met with Defense Minister Moshe Arens, among other officials. Israel was told that the special assistance to the Palestinians, who in Washington's assessment have fulfilled their part of the Wye accord, will be formally approved and the funds will be made available to the PA.

When Eizenstat was asked why the special financial aid was being withheld from Israel, he reiterated a previous declaration by the State Department that the Palestinians had carried out their obligations under the agreement, whereas the Israelis had not.

In reply to Israel's contention that it had implemented the first of the three West Bank pullbacks stipulated by the accord and therefore should receive a commensurate percentage of the funds, Eisenstadt replied that this was not possible.

He maintained that Israel had to carry out all its obligations in order to receive the aid. Israel had originally asked for $2.3 billion to cover the costs of implementing the Wye agreement, but settled for $1.2 billion.

About half the sum was earmarked for various deployments in connection with the three-part pullback, while the rest was to be used to upgrade Israel's military capability in the war against terrorism and in other areas.

Congress will not hold deliberations over releasing the special aid (of which Jordan is also a recipient) until July, by which time Israel hopes to be able to persuade its friends in the House and Senate to overturn the administration's decision.

Clearly, this will be virtually impossible if the new Israeli government that is elected in May continues the policies of the present government. At most, in that case, Israel will perhaps be able to bring about a delay in the transfer of the aid to the Palestinians as well.

Israel suspended its implementation of the Wye accord indirectly, when the government stated that it would carry out its obligations only if the Palestinians did likewise.

However, the government added a new condition, which does not appear in the Wye agreement: that the PA must abandon its intentions to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. [ED NOTE: That is part of the Oslo Accords.]

Stolen military documents

YEDIOT AHARONOT 3/2/99: "The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] is shocked: Top secret documents were stolen from the office of Major General Gabi Ashkenazi, commander of the Northern Command.

The theft occurred some three weeks ago but was reported only last week, and in its wake the Military Police set up a special investigatory team.

The Military Police is reportedly treating the affair very seriously. A source close to the investigation said yesterday that all the possibilities are being investigated including one that the documents, which included data on IDF activities in south Lebanon, reached hostile elements.

The IDF, however, is ruling out the possibility that the documents reached Hizballah. The same source said that the fact that the announcement on the theft was made only some two weeks after the incident "makes the investigation much more difficult since it is now hard to look for fingerprints and other data that could have been collected immediately after the event.

The incident recalls the theft of classified documents from a naval base about six months before the naval commando's fiasco in south Lebanon, when information called "very sensitive" was stolen and time passed before the investigation began. Nothing was found. The entire story was silenced and a major effort was made to prevent its publication, until it was disclosed by Yedi'ot Aharonot following the commando fiasco.

The IDF spokesman said then: "There is no link between the operation's failure and the theft of the documents."

Two months ago, the home of Deputy Mosad director 'Amiram Levin was broken into and his computer was stolen. The Mosad claimed that "the computer did not contain any secrets."

Solution to Lebanon?

IDF RADIO 3/3/99: [Yokhpaz][the reporter] Good morning, Defense Minister Moshe Arens. Minister Sharon said we must set up a national emergency government under the Likud and Labor to find a solution to the Lebanon problem. What's your opinion about that?

[Arens] I understand Minister Sharon's reasoning. When we face difficult problems and decisions, which happens often in our small country, it is preferable to have a national unity government, so that decisions can be made jointly and have wide-ranging support, at least from the two large parties. On the other hand, those who consider the steps that have to be taken -- convening the Knesset to approve legislation postponing the elections -- will reach the conclusion that it is impractical.

[Yokhpaz] We heard that Minister Sharon updated Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu about his proposal. Did he also update you?

[Arens] I heard it from Minister Sharon several days ago, and I said then that it is not practical.

[Yokhpaz] But it might contain something. Perhaps it is motivated not by politics, but by a real desire to reach an achievement that ends the killing in Lebanon?

[Arens] I have no doubt that it expresses a genuine desire to achieve national unity in order to make it easier to reach decisions, but as I said, it is impractical, and on the other hand decisions have to be made and can be made within the framework of the present government...

[Yokhpaz] Criticism was voiced yesterday that the attack on Hizballah was not fierce enough. Where do you stand on this issue?

[Arens] We attacked, but we mainly signaled, and I believe that this signal was understood by the other side, especially by the Syrians -- since without a Syrian agreement nothing occurs in Lebanon, and Hizballah acts only with Syrian agreement -- that we have the capability to reach long distances -- and we reached a target as far away as Ba'labakk.

[Yokhpaz] Are you pleased with the results?

[Arens] I am definitely pleased. The question is how results are measured. I measure them according to the message transmitted to the other side that we reached distant targets and that if the attacks do not stop, we will reach even further...

[Yokhpaz] One of the newspaper headlines refers to your direct involvement in the talks with the United States over the past few days urging it to apply pressure on Syria.

[Arens] Certainly, in addition to the message sent through the Air Force action, we also sent oral messages via the United States to let the Syrians know that we are in the midst of a very unstable situation which can escalate, and that the Syrians must enter the picture and stabilize it otherwise the outcome will be terrible."

Sharon proposal rejected

GLOBES 3/3/99: "The Labor Party has rejected Minister of Foreign Affairs Ari'el Sharon's proposal to form a national emergency government and postpone the elections by a few months. Senior Labor Party figures said the proposal showed that even Sharon realized that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was a failure.

Sharon said in response that his proposal was not a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister or the government's performance, but a serious attempt to deal with the real problems and dangers facing the State of Israel, which are becoming graver even while the country is in an election period, and perhaps precisely because of that.

Sharon said that, after the painful events in Lebanon, he decided to suggest as broad as possible a national consensus as the only possible means of arriving at a solution to Israel's main, difficult problems in this period.

Sharon added that it was a must to defer the political wrangling for a few months, for the sake of the security of the country, its citizens and its soldiers.

Minister of Finance Me'ir Shitrit said today that forming a national emergency government was no longer a realistic option, following the proposal's rejection by the Labor Party."

Al-Shara: Syrian-Russian relations

Beirut'a AL SAFFIR 3/3/99: "Syrian diplomacy is a book of secrets. It cannot be easily opened but it is not closed on any subject. The scope of interest has no limits and the horizon of hot issues is extremely wide. Syrian diplomacy and the character of [Foreign] Minister Faruq al-Shar' intermingle.

He is a brilliant diplomat, a calm intellectual, an avid reader, and an accurate analyst. But he is much cautious, and this is dictated by his position and by Syria's circumstances and priorities...

Replying to a question on the prospects of a large-scale Israeli aggression against Lebanon, al-Shar' said: Israel must now be thinking that such an aggression will prompt response by the Resistance. Attacks on Lebanon could bring Netanyahu down as they did to Peres.

The stay of tens of thousands of the Israelis in shelters in northern Israel for many days and weeks will unseat the strongest Israeli government in the elections. As much as we are worried because of the Israeli muscle-flexing,

Netanyahu too must be concerned about a response of the same or higher caliber. Escalation is not in the interest of any party, but the resumption of the April Understanding Monitoring Committee meetings is in the interest of all the parties.

Therefore, al-Shar' believes that the magnitude of concern in the Israeli street about the suspension of the peace process must not be overlooked. This is especially true because the stagnation of this process has produced nothing, particularly in terms of security.

The Israelis' fear of Hamas cannot be ended by arrests because Hamas is a popular phenomenon...Minister al-Shar' expects Iraq to become another Palestinian issue if there is no decisive change in the Iraqi and Arab positions. He notes that at the recent meeting of the Arab Foreign Ministers in Cairo Iraq had a unique chance to have the embargo lifted, which was the only item on the meeting's agenda.

The meeting could have witnessed a major Arab development had the Iraqi officials not committed the mistake of launching a media offensive against their Arab neighbors in the south and in Egypt. This made everybody helpless and nobody could defend them until the end.

In my belief, the Iraqis wasted a precious opportunity to open an important dialogue with the Saudis and Kuwaitis. However, we will continue to be in touch with them until they realize that their interest lies in cooperating with the Arab Follow-up Committee...

Minister al-Shar' is a bit reserved when he talks about Russia. This is because his recent trip to Moscow, similar to all trips made by Russia's friends. represents an attempt to find out what is actually going on in this major state, which lacks the political will but continues to possess all the prerequisites for a major power.

The political scene is changing and the balance of power between the Duma and President Boris Yeltsin has recently been tipped in favor of the first. Prime Minister Primakov is a professional who recently obtained the President's signature on a constitutional amendment preventing the dismissal of the government without the Duma's request.

That was in exchange for Primakov's verbal promise not to try to oust Yeltsin. But is it reasonable to say that Primakov is a serious contender for the Presidency in the year 2000?

Al-Shar' says that "Primakov is an extremely intelligent person who now says that he is not after the Presidency, but who knows what might happen tomorrow?

What is important is for Russia to regain its will. Then it could restore the US respect for it and become once again a global center of polarity for many of the countries that have no chance to deal or are not interesting in dealing with the United States."

As for the complete file of the Syrian-Russian relations that al-Shar' carried with him to Moscow, which included political, economic, and military (armament) issues, the Syrian Foreign Minister keeps his secret and would never talk about it. However, he expresses satisfaction at what seems to be a new beginning between the two countries."

Al-Hasan and a PA State

Gaza's AL HAYAH AL JADIDAH 2/27/99: "Fatah Central Council member Hani al-Hasan, who is responsible for external relations, said in a speech he delivered the day before yesterday at the Arab Studies Center in London that if the Palestinian state is not proclaimed in May 1999, which is the date the transitional stage ends as stipulated by the Oslo Agreement, a political vacuum will result in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

He expressed his view that this idea will push the Palestinians toward proclaiming their state at the above-mentioned date and on the territory that Israel occupied in 1967. Al-Hasan affirmed that stability in the region cannot be guaranteed except through the establishment of a Palestinian state.

It will unite the Palestinians. He added that the Palestinians are currently exerting efforts to convene a meeting attended by the five Arab countries neighboring Israel in order to discuss various issues. He pointed out that the issues relating to the final status talks, such as the borders, water, Jerusalem, and the security measures, are not Palestinian issues only, but regional issues too.

Al-Hasan's speech was followed by a long session of questions, through which some serious fears were expressed regarding the timing and method of declaring the Palestinian state.

Sir Cyril Townsend, director of the Council for Advancing Arab-British Understanding [CAABU], said that 'Arafat's negotiating position will improve immensely if he holds a referendum in order to consult the Palestinian people on the establishment of an independent state.

He added that if he asks Europe to fund or organize such a public referendum it will be very difficult for Europe to reject such a request.

Al-Hasan said the Palestinian leadership is preparing to hold a referendum in which it will not ask the people to express their opinion on one issue only, but many issues. In addition, they are preparing a human rights declaration that addresses the relations between the various religions...

Regarding the unity of the Palestinians and the Arabs, al-Hasan said that 4 May will create a new situation and that the Fatah Movement has actually started negotiations with other organizations.

A meeting will be held with the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine in Cairo. In addition, talks with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine have started. Answering a question on a confederacy with Jordan, al-Hasan said: Unity with Jordan is a Palestinian objective.

William Morris from the Future Century Institute wondered: Then, would it be better for the Palestinians to declare their state without any firm borders as Israel did in 1948, instead of declaring their state within the 1967 borders?

He said that this will leave all options open before the Palestinians and place them in a really strong position. It would enable them to declare Jerusalem as the joint capital of Palestine and Israel.

Al-Hasan clarified that the Palestinian leadership studied the option of proclaiming the state without any borders, but if it does so, then some sides will claim that the Palestinians want to establish their state on the whole of Palestine. This will only weaken the Palestinian stance on the international level."

May 4: US, France, Germany?

AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE 3/3/99: "Yasser Arafat will ask US President Bill Clinton when they meet this month to formally recognize for the first time the Palestinians' right to statehood, a senior aide said Wednesday.

Such US recognition could be part of a broader international deal under which the Palestinians would agree to postpone a unilateral declaration of independence beyond May 4, when interim peace accords with Israel expire, said Tayeb Abdel Rahim, one of Arafat's closest advisors.

"Arafat will ask Clinton at their summit on March 23 for American recognition of the Palestinians' right to self-determination, which will clearly mean the establishment of a Palestinian state," Abdel Rahim told AFP.

Palestinian officials said the Arafat-Clinton meeting at the White House would focus on Palestinian conditions for delaying the independence declaration, which Israel has warned would lead to a major crisis and potential violence.

Clinton has in the past recognized the Palestinians' right to self-determination, but says the exact status of the Palestinian areas must be determined through negotiations with Israel...

Shaath said European governments had already agreed "to raise the level of Palestinian representative offices as part of a clearer recognition of the Palestinians' right to self-determination."

He said that France and Germany, the latter considered the closest European state to Israel, have also recently moved closer to recognition of a Palestinian state.

"France . . . Is prepared for immediate recognition of a Palestinian state whether it is announced on May 4 or any other date which has been agreed upon," he said.