Intelligence failure?

MA'ARIV 2/3/99: "The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] Intelligence Branch learned several years ago that King Husayn intended to appoint his son 'Abdallah as the crown prince instead of his brother Hasan.

The information involved, which is firsthand and considered reliable, was obtained by several Israeli personages who met 'Abdallah several years ago.

These sources say that during the meetings Prince 'Abdallah explicitly told them: "My father wants to appoint me as his successor."

The sources this week criticized the intelligence establishment and claimed that a thorough examination should be held to check whether this failing has again exposed a defect in its ability to predict political developments in the region.

"Even though this mistake has not resulted in substantial damage, it is certainly possible that our intelligence establishment bungled again," the sources said.

During the six months in which Husayn underwent cancer treatment at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, the Arab press was rife with assessments that the struggle over the succession will be reopened.

In a dramatic move last Tuesday before urgently returning to the Mayo Clinic, Husayn issued a royal decree appointing his elder son, 'Abdallah, as crown prince.

This move, which also constituted a dismissal of his brother Hasan after 33 years in office, was considered a huge surprise. Ma'ariv has learned that the information regarding Husayn's intention to carry out this move was relayed to the Israeli political echelon even before the signing of the peace treaty with Jordan in 1994.

In the meetings with the Israelis, 'Abdallah revealed that there is tension between him and his uncle Hasan against this background.

"The surprise with which the developments in Jordan was received in Israel should be a cause for concern," said these personages.

It should be noted that the new crown prince had many opportunities to meet Israeli and foreign personages even before the establishment of official relations between the two countries, because he studied for many years abroad.

He is a graduate of the Sandhurst Military Academy in Britain and has a masters degree in international relations from Georgetown University in Washington. He has also undergone parachuting courses in the French and British armies."

Meeting doubtful

HA'ARETZ 2/5/99: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon's scheduled trip to Amman on Sunday was thrown into serious doubt last night, due to the rapidly deteriorating health of Jordan's King Hussein, government officials said.

Hussein, reported in critical condition with organ failure after treatment for a recurrence of cancer, left the United States in his private jet yesterday to return to Jordan in an overnight flight.

One government minister in Amman told reporters that the monarch "wanted to die in his own country."

Netanyahu, who would have been making his first trip to Jordan since the Khaled Meshal assassination fiasco in the fall of 1997, was hoping to pay a congratulatory call on Hussein's heir, the new Crown Prince Abdullah.

Netanyahu's adviser David Bar-Illan said last night that "all of Israel is praying for a miracle that will restore the king to good health."

...Israeli security sources said yesterday that they believed Crown Prince Abdullah was capable of maintaining control in Jordan even if King Hussein died in the next few days.

According to the sources, despite his relative inexperience in running the country and in foreign affairs, Abdullah's internal position in Jordan is quite strong.

He is believed to have firm control of the military and of Jordan's elite special units, and enjoys the support of the heads of all the security services.

Despite this, the Israeli sources speculated that Jordan was in for a period of relative instability, until Abdullah established his rule, and the position of former crown prince Hassan was clarified.

During this period, the sources warn, there could be external attempts to destabilize the new king's rule...Meanwhile, Prince Hassan yesterday headed a gathering of the royal committee on Jerusalem - his first public function since being deposed as crown prince by his brother some two weeks ago.

The prince's associates stressed yesterday that he was intent on carrying on with his work in all the institutions and groups he headed. Hassan has headed the royal committee on Jerusalem since 1994.

Also yesterday, it was revealed that the editor of the opposition newspaper Al-Majd was arrested for 15 days, after his newspaper ran a story claiming that in their first meeting after Hussein's return to Jordan, Prince Hassan handed his brother a gun and asked that he shoot him if he had lost faith in him."

Jordanian Crown Prince Abdullah may be regarded as politically inexperienced and relatively unknown in Israel, but his assumption of power is unlikely to shake the relations between Jordan and Israel.

Abdullah has been a professional military man for years, with particular experience in anti-terrorism activity, and as part of his military career he has maintained close contacts with U.S. officials; to a certain degree with Israel, as well.

Therefore, at least in terms of security, the cooperation is expected to continue and perhaps to improve. The fact that Abdullah agreed to receive Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon early next week also proves that the he is not afraid to continue the tradition of close relations with Israel.

However, changes are likely in Jordan's relations with the Palestinians. The Kingdom of Jordan and the Palestinian Authority are at odds on a host of topics, such as the status of Jerusalem, water rights, various economic issues, and primarily the question of the position and loyalty of Jordan's large Palestinian population.

In recent years a united front consisting of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat has been formed, with Egypt carrying on its traditional support of Palestinain claims against Jordan.

King Hussein knew how to handle the Egyptian-Palestinian pressure. Whether Abdullah will succeed in doing so remains to be seen. The shift of power in Jordan means a weakening, at least temporarily, of the regime, throwing Palestinian-Israeli- Jordanian relations out of balance.

Arafat and his people have no interest, and possibly no ability either, to cause instability east of the Jordan River. But the possibility exists."

Budget passed

ARUTZ7 2/5/99: "The Knesset of Israel passed the national budget bill early this morning. The new budget totals 215 billion shekels (approx. $53 billion). The additions to the budget attained over the past few days by the coalition parties totaled a half-billion shekels, but Finance Ministry sources said that the budget framework was not exceeded..."

ARUTZ 7

HA'ARETZ 2/5/99: "Following hectic all-night debates, the Land of Israel Front yesterday reached an agreement with the government whereby its MKs would not delay the passage of the budget bill over their demand for legalization of the settlers' pirate radio station Arutz Sheva.

In return, the government agreed to legalize the station within two weeks, either through an amendment to the Bezeq Law, or by granting the Second Broadcasting Authority the right to license national radio stations catering to specific sectors.

In the first possibility, the station would be legalized via a clause in an amendment to the Bezeq Law, submitted by MK Zvi Hendel (National Religious Party).

Under the clause, any radio station broadcasting for over five years throughout most of the country would be automatically licensed.

The amendment was originally set to be brought to a vote yesterday, before the vote on the budget and the supplementary legislation, but will now be delayed by some two weeks.

Alternatively, Arutz Sheva could be legalized via a bill submitted by Education Minister Yitzhak Levy, which was fine-tuned all day in the Knesset by representatives of the attorney general, the Communications Ministry and the Second Broadcasting Authority.

Under this bill, the Second Broadcasting Authority Council would be authorized to grant licenses to national radio stations catering to specific population segments.

The government, on the recommendation of the education minister, would set a list of priorities for such stations, "taking into account economic considerations and the public's needs, including the lack of alternatives within existing radio broadcasts for certain segments of the population."

Frenkel upset

HA'ARETZ 2/5/99: "Bank of Israel Governor Jacob Frenkel yesterday voiced deep concern about the process being employed by the Knesset to pass the 1999 budget, calling it "totally irrational."

"According to what I've read in the papers, treasury officials are saying [Knesset members] are doling out slices of a pie that does not exist," Frenkel added at a press conference in Tel Aviv.

The governor said he was "very, very worried" that the Knesset would spend without thinking about the tab for its allocations, which might not arrive until much later. Frenkel also criticized the 14th Knesset for moving to pass a budget as its clock winds down.

"The reason the Knesset decided on early elections is that it cannot go on," he said. Frenkel said a lame-duck Knesset needs to be watched closely, since "its considerations are not always long-term."

The extended election season is harming the economy, Frenkel added. He also said the market is currently hovering above the target inflation rate of 4 percent the government set for 1999 - which he said was partially a reflection of political uncertainty and the national budgetary limbo.

When the central bank sees that the target rate is in its sights, Frenkel said, it would "adjust its monetary policy" - most likely by lowering interest rates..."

Russia & Syria

Moscow's INTERFAX NEWS AGENCY 2/3/99: "A Syrian military delegation comprised of experts of the national air and air defense forces arrived in Moscow on Wednesday to hold talks on military-technical cooperation and acquisition of modern types of weapons and military equipment.

Its visit will last until February 13. Head of the Defense Ministry's Main Department for International Military Cooperation Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov told Interfax that this visit is the result of an agreement reached during Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev's visit to Syria in October 1998.

Russia and Syria will discuss modernization and repair of the earlier bought equipment and supplies of spare parts. Syria pays special attention to S-300 air-defense systems, sources in the Russian Defense Ministry told Interfax.

They said that one of the largest groups of Russian military advisors is working in Syria to help that country develop its armed forces. Earlier, Sergeyev told Interfax that more than 90% of the Syrian weapons are Soviet and Russian made.

"We are ready to broaden military-technical cooperation with Damascus on a mutually- advantageous basis," he said.

Sergeyev said that among the most promising areas of military- technical cooperation with Syria is the repair of armaments and military equipment, modernization and supplies of the latest Russian weapons systems.

Informed sources in the Russian military-industrial complex told Interfax that Syria intends to re-equip and upgrade its national army "by resuming large-scale military-technical cooperation with Russia." They said that Damascus "is ready to allocate several hundred million dollars to this program."

Syria now has about 4,000 tanks and over 500 aircraft manufactured by Soviet-era and Russian enterprises. The majority of this equipment (T-72 tanks and MiG-21, MiG-23 and MiG-29 fighters) is in need of repair and modernization.

Syria would like to buy multipurpose Su-27 fighters, T-80 tanks and S-300 missile complexes, the sources said. The program for Russian-Syrian military-technical cooperation is estimated at $2 billion.

The scope of cooperation between the two countries will largely depend on the Middle East settlement and on prospects for military cooperation between Israel and Turkey, the experts said."

Turkey & Iran

Ankara's ANATOLIA NEWS AGENCY 2/3/99: "Foreign Minister Ismail Cem received Mohsen Aminzadeh, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister on Wednesday.

Speaking after the meeting which was closed to the press Aminzadeh said they held constructive talks and exchanged views about regional and international issues concerning the two countries.

Aminzadeh also said he brought a message from Iranian President Khatami to President Suleyman Demirel. The sides decided to have a more effective cooperation on border security issue and it was reported that a telephone line would be established between Turkish and Iranian commanders in the border.

It was reported that Iraq issue was taken up during the talks. Iran summarized its views as Iraq`s territorial integrity and political unity should be preserved and that there should not be any other formation.

It was also pointed out that Iraq expressed concern about Iraq`s division. Iran also accepted the requirement of struggle against terrorism in Northern Iraq.

Iranian side, during the talks, brought the issue of having tripartite meetings to the agenda between Turkey-Syria and Iran on regional issues and that Turkish side noted this issue.

It was reported that the 2.5 page letter sent by Khatami to Demirel mentioned about the recent developments in Iraq. Turkey`s relations with Israel and developments in Afghanistan were also taken up during the talks."

Russian reservations

Cairo's MIDDLE EAST NEWS AGENCY 2/2/99: "A Russian envoy said Tuesday that his country supports in principle the creation of the Palestinian state, but has some reservations on the date of its proclamation.

In remarks to reporters at the Cairo-based Arab League, Russian Ambassador here Vladimir Goudev, added that Russia is of the view that the decision to proclaim statehood should be the outcome of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and a logical result of the peace drive initiated at the 1991 Madrid peace conference.