JAPAN: Strategic Challenges

 

Wichai Chucherd

 

Overview

 

In September 11, 2001, a series of terrorist attacks in the US gave a shock throughout the world. The scale and method of the attacks that were beyond imagination encouraged the world community to renew the perception of terrorism as a threat and recognize that people are living in a ‘time of uneasiness’. There is also concern about the increasing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles, which indicates the possible acquisition of those weapons by non-state actors including terrorist groups.
 

There are unpredictable and uncertain elements in the Asia-Pacific region, such as the continuing tension on the Korean Peninsula. Many countries in the region have used the remarkable growth of their economies to expand and modernize their military capabilities, especially China. 

 

With the expanding and deepening interdependence between nations, various issues, such as ethnic conflicts, separatism and terrorism, have been recognized not merely as a domestic issues but as issues of the regional and international community.

 

Strategic Challenges      

 

Terrorism and proliferation of weapons

 

In the September 11 terrorist attacks, the number of the dead totaled over 3,000 from more than 80 countries, including 24 Japanese. These attacks defied not only the U.S. but also the freedom, peace and democracy of international society including Japan. Those attacks were followed by serial bomb terrorist attacks on Bali.   

 

In recent years, some countries have been obviously attempting to acquire and develop weapons, including weapons of mass destruction and means of their delivery, such as ballistic missiles. Furthermore, there is increasing concern about the acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by terrorist groups. Moreover, the need to control information warfare fought on computer networks, guerrilla commando attacks using biological and chemical weapons, and other asymmetrical threats has also come to be recognized.

 

The importance of the above challenges affects Japan’s security as follows:

·        Information technology and globalisation may lead to the wider gap between the rich and the poor. This could encourage the poor to use more terrorism and mass destruction, which easy access, against the rich.

·        Japan as the rich and US involvement in Japan could easily lead Japan to be a terrorist target. As the US has increased its Homeland protection, this means it has increased the possibility of terrorist attacks outside US territory.

·        The scale of terrorist attacks is unpredictable: a significant number of civilian casualties, and economic disruptions both immediately and over mid and long-term periods, which take a long recovery time.

·        Terrorist attacks elsewhere in the world could damage Japan’s economy and her citizen as occurred after September 11.

·        Anticipated warnings could be given only through worldwide intelligence cooperation and a new approach as with Homeland Security, while warning may be short depending on the close intelligence cooperation.

·        The fight against terrorism could be shared by the international community activities. However, to respond to terrorist attacks in Japan, independent anticipation is needed.

·        These unpredictable and large scale impacts of the terrorist attacks which are linked to the proliferation of WMDs has shifted the terrorist problem to be the most important priority for Japan’s security.

 

Korean Peninsula Tensions

 

Unpredictable and uncertain elements remain in the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has been advocating a basic national policy of the construction of a ‘strong and rising great power’, and it has adopted a ‘military first policy’ for the realization of this goal.

There are also uncertain relations between the US, North Korea and South Korea, which may lead to military confrontation and serious destabilization for the security of East Asia, including Japan.   

 

General indicators of the insecurity of the Korean Peninsula are the following: 

·        North Korea is developing and deploying weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, possesses large-scale special operational forces, and trying to maintain and strengthen its asymmetrical military forces.

·        The U.S. has consistently expressed its concern about North Korean ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. has also designated North Korea a state which sponsoring terrorism.

·        Concerning North-South relations, full-fledged confidence-building measures have not been realized, while arms control and disarmament on the Korean Peninsula have not made any advancement. 

 

The instability on the Korean Peninsula and the unpredictability of the North Korean regime could affect Japan’s security as follows: 

·        North Korea may launch her missiles to attack Japan if its regime desires to do so. WMD also could be transferred to terrorist.

·        North Korea may infiltrate Japan’s territory as in the incident of North Korean boat near Noto Peninsula in 1999 and an unidentified boat near Kyushu in 2001. Some Japanese are also believed to have been abducted and detained in North Korea.

·        The military confrontation in the peninsula between North South Korea may lead to war, which will have an impact on Japan as a close neighbour country.

·        However, there are many indicators of an anticipated warning for Japan. Nevertheless, Japan should be aware of the unpredictability of North Korean regime.  

·        Although the response to the Korean Peninsula tension is mainly the responsibility of the US, Japan has to anticipate the problem seriously as it has an immediate impact on Japan’s security if conflict break out.     

 

The Rise of China

 

China has been pursuing reform to build a rich strong, democratic and civilized socialist nation. China is emphasizing domestic stability and unity, particularly social stability. It is working toward modernizing and strengthening its capabilities.

 

China maintains the principle that Taiwan is a part of China and that the Taiwan issue is, therefore, an internal matter. China has often declared that it has not ruled out the use of force against any intervention by foreign powers in the unification of China, or against any attempt to win independence for Taiwan.  

 

China is seeking to shift the emphasis of its military forces from quantity to quality, moving to a position where it will have a nucleus of regular forces capable of coping with modern warfare. She possesses approximately 135 medium-range H-6 bombers (Tu-16) and 20 ICBMs. China is also developing a new-type ICBMs and SLBMs the Dong Feng 31 (CSS-9) (long-range surface-to-surface missiles). 

 

In recent years, Chinese oceanographic research vessels have been seen conducting research in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Japan, and Chinese warships have also been active in seawaters near Japan. 

 

The incident above could indicate the possible impacts on Japan’s security in many ways:

·        The issue of China-Taiwan relations is perceived as a security problem which threatens regional peace and stability, including that of Japan.

·        The intention of China to strengthen its capabilities, military activities near Japan territory, border disputes with Japan and past hostilities in WWII may motivate China to confront Japan, and use it missiles. 

·        Both China-Taiwan tension and the intention of China to engage Japan could damage Japan’s economy since Japan use the South China Sea as a trade route.

·        The systematic development of Chinese capabilities could indicate its intentions on Taiwan issues and other aggressive activities.

·        The impact of China relation concern not only Japan alone but also involve the US and Taiwan.

·        If military conflict between China and Japan occurs, the US will act because of the alliance of Japan.     

 

Regional Insecurity 

 

Although a notable scale of Russian military force including nuclear capability still remain in the region as a threat to Japan, the insecurity of the Asia-Pacific region is more vital. The economic crisis in 1997 has affected political stability in some countries, such as Indonesia. Many countries in the region also lack the ability to administer their countries. This could lead to internal conflict in the countries. Terrorists utilize many countries in the region as their base and their front line. The unresolved territorial disputes over the Spratly Islands also present unpredictability and uncertainty

 

The insecurity in the region could affect Japan’s security in many ways as follows:

·        Japan’s economy in the region could be disrupted by instability of the countries of the region.

·        The sea trade route in South China Sea could be obstructed by piracy activities which are always linked to separatist groups and terrorists.

·        The Spratly issues could lead to the insecurity of sea trade route.

·        These problems could happen anytime. However, there is the cooperating between the nations in the region as in ASEAN, ARF. The US also tries to concentrate and anticipate the problems.

 

Conclusion

 

The security of Japan involves a wide range and type of issues. Moreover, the issues always relate to and influence each other. The impact of terrorism needs to be anticipated as an issue of the international community as a whole, while domestic policy has to concentrate on how to prevent terrorist attacks in territory as with homeland security. The uncertainty and unpredictability of the conflict in the Korean Peninsula must be monitored and alliances must cooperated to anticipate the problems. China-Taiwan issues remain a flash point that must be considered, while the insecurity in the region could impact on Japan’s economy and sea trade routes.    

 

Bibliography:

 

Cheng, Joseph Y.S., ‘Sino-Japanese relations in the twenty-first century’, Journal of Contemporary Asia, 33 (2), 2003, pp. 251-274.

 

Tanter, Richard, ‘Japan and the coming East Asian explosion’, Arena Magazine, August 1999, pp. 44ff.

 

Shuya, Sharif M., ‘North East Asia and US Policy’, Contemporary Review, 281 (1639), 2002, pp. 73-87.

 

The National Institute for Defense Studies Japan, East Asian Strategic Review 2002, The National Institute for Defense Studies, Tokyo, 2002.

 

Iwamoto, Yujiro and Edirippulige, Sisira, ‘Japan’s Response to the war against terrorism’, New Zealand International Review, 27 (2), 2002, pp. 9-13.