Action PC Explained
By Ed De Varona
This game is awesome because among other things it rates offensive and defensive players on nearly every meaningful stat.
GAME PLAY UPDATED FOR WIN 2004 VERSION
The biggest formula change in the 2004 football game
pertains to the
frequency of passes made to secondary receivers. The overall percentage of
'dump off' passes has not changed. As in the past, the biggest factor in the
dump off percentage is the distance of the pass that is called. Deeper pass
calls resulting in more dump offs. However, in 2004 this percentage is
adjusted by a number of factors:
1) Coverage player. The higher the rating of the
covering defensive player
the higher the percentage of dump offs. This adjustment is bigger for man
coverage. 'Shut down' corners have a real impact!
2) Intended receivers. Better receivers get open
more often and therefore
can lower the dump off percentage.
3) Double coverage. It is now much more difficult to
attempt a pass to a
double covered receiver.
4) Coverage depth and spread. Some more obvious
adjustments. It's more
difficult to throw short when the defense is playing tight, more difficult
to throw a slant when the defense is covering inside, etc.
5) Blitzing. Each blitzer raises the dump off
percentage. 'Blitz the farm'
and the quarterback will often need to dump it off to a secondary receiver.
PLAYER RATINGS All defensive players and offensive linemen are rated on a scale of 1-10 total. A player that is rated a 10 is a consensus 1st team all-pro player for that year according to at least 4 leading publications. A 9 rated player is considered a near consensus or a 2nd and 3rd team all pro. All other players rating are affected by magazine appraisal and the overall quality of the defensive team they played on.
Defensive team ratings:
Run defense points are measured from a league average of 28.
Ex. avg defense is worth 28 run points. This rating is a for a defense that permitted the nfl average yds per carry (last year's NFL avg.) each defensive run point +- 28 either adds 1/10 or subtracts 1/10 of a yd from the RB's average gain. Points also effect risk distribution. The chances for a big offensive run or big loss. EX. A run defense rated 38 would subtract one entire yd avg from an avg offensive RB line (rated 34.) RB that has a 4.0 avg should in the game avg about 3.0 yds a carry if all the defense called was basic defense. He shouldn't break many big runs either.
STUFFS-Stuffs are a statistic that is kept and has an impact on the way run defense is played. A team with a greater number of stuffs per starting lineup than the NFL stuff avg will tackle more running plays for a loss than a team which has less.
Enhanced Linemen effects-If there is a mismatch the computer up to 25% of the time will expose this mismatch be generating greater gains or losses based on the match up. PBP will tell you when match up problems exist.
Pass defense points affect both the avg pass gain per completion and comp %.
Avg Standard Pass defense is 30 pts. Each pass point >or< 30 will reduce or increase a QB's completion % by .58 and reduce or increase a Qb's avg gain per completion by .29 yds.
EX. Qb before defensive adjustment completes 50% of his passes for 12 yd avg gain per completion. Defense Pass defense rating is 34. Qb's comp% will be reduced 2 % from 50 to 48% and AVG Gain Completion will be reduced one yd (.25 x 4)to 11 yds.
(Note that of course, there are numerous other factors which effect the final outcome of the play such as play called on offense and defense; how good or bad the receiver is, home field advantage and the weather (how windy is it and how hot it is). These other factors will be discussed later.)
Defensive ints and fumbles.
Defensive players increase or decrease QB's int % based on the actual total number of interceptions the defensive players in the game made. This number is compared to the NFL interception average for the avg starting defensive lineup in the NFL.
A defensive team increases the chances of an offensive team fumbling up to about +- 50% depending on the total of forced fumbles by the defensive players.
Fumbles lost are generally calculated randomly.
The chances of a player who never fumbled is minimally 1 in 1000.
Which means that ever a player who "never" fumbled has a rare chance for the turnover. See discussion below on Pitch turnover %
Defensive return yardage on fumbles is random but based on position of the player recovering the fumble.
Defensive int return yardage based on actual return yardage and position of the player returning the int and the type of intercepted pass being returned. Intercepted outside passes are returned farther than Int inside passes.
Sacks Sacks are determined strictly by rating defensive pass rush points ("DPR") against offensive pass protection and QB's sack %. Avg defensive team gets 8 PR points. every point -+ 8 will increase or decrease the chance of a defense making a sack by 10 percent of the QB's sack %. Ex. QB gets sacked 5 times out of 100 total pass attempts. Offensive pass protection ("OPP") (the point total of the 5 starting offensive linemen is (NFL average) 30 offensive Sk % is thus 5%. If defense has 12 sack points then offensive sack % is increased by 40% Sack % on the play is now 5%*110%*110%*110%*110%=7.3%. There is a one to one correlation between OPP and DPR which means that every DPR point is directly added or subtracted to the OPP points to determine pass protection. HOWEVER BLITZING PLAYERS COUNT AT LEAST ONE SACK POINT + THE NUMBER OF SACK POINTS THEY HAVE. EX TEAM has 10 pass rush Pts total and 2 lbs have 4 of those points. On every play there is a 20% increase on a QB's sack % if the defense team blitzes both Lb's then sack % increases 60% so EX Qb with 3% sack % increases to 3.6% regular and 5.3 when blitzing the 2 lbs above. This would be against a medium pass pattern and an average offline. there is a 25% increase in sack percentage if you blitz a non-linebacker such as a safety or a CB. The corresponding risks increase as well not know at this time if same affect with win2k version.
Offensive Players
All players are rated accurately on fumbles, reception avg, rushing average, blocking ability, reception ability and long gainer.
Qb's are rated on avg gain per completion, Td %, comp %, sk %, int % A QB's TD% effects how often a receiver will make a catch near their long gainer. The longer the pass play thrown the greater chance that a receiver will make a play near their long gainer. Now Qb's have a 1-5 pressure rating which determines whether they play better or worse in the 4th quarter. Also Qb's have audible ratings which determine how often they audible this is based on experience of QB.
Catches:
Each offensive player is rated on catching ability based on the number of catches he made compared to the NFL Avg for the year. 1995 avg was about 49. Every catch increases or decreases the chance of completion +- 1/6 of a % point. Ex. receiver who caught 56 passes will increase chance of completion of pass on the play by 1% receiver who catches 1 pass will reduce completion % by about 8%.
Receiver's avg gain per play will effect yardage gained on the play the effect on any given pass play depends on the type of pass play screen or short passes effect is minimal however on the bomb it can be up to a +- 15 yd difference.
Average per catch also has a ignificant impact on play results. The average receiver will have about a 12 yard average.Throwing a 'pass' to this receiver will result in about a 22 yard average. Throwing long to a receiver with a 8 yard average will yield a modest 15 yard average. But throwing long to a receiver with a 18 yard average will yield a whopping 35 yard average!
WIN 2000 and beyond- For a receiver to have a nuetral effect on a medium pass he must have at least a 13 yd avg per catch if less then a medium pass completion to that receiver will be less than the avg medium completion for the QB- ie QB with 12.0 avg per pass will avg 12 yds per medium if receiver avg's less than 13.0 then QB will complete less than a 12 yd pass on avg to that receiver. FOR LONG receiver must have at least a 14.5 avg per catch.. FOR BOMB receiver must have at least 16.5 avg per catch to not reduce Avg per completion of QB.
Screen passes have a higher completion % when passing to the RB's but they get less yardage per play than screens to TE or WR's.
VER 4.0+ LOW AVG PER CATCH RECIEVERS
Any reciever who has a avg per catch of less than 10 yds will have a reduced chance of being able to catch a long or bomb pass. Its a 5% reduction for every yd under 10 yds per catch a reciever's reception avg is.
Blocking Points
OPP points were discussed in the sack section above. Offensive Run blocking points ("ORP") include all starting linemen points and blocking points of RB's, WR's, and T.E.'s. ORB points work the exact same way as defensive run points (see above). ORB Base avg however is 34 points instead of 30 for the defense. (30 pts for the five linemen and 1 pt for each RB and 2 pts for one TE)
This feature has been around since ver 3.0 the center has an additional feature in that every point +_ six increases or decreases the chance of a fumbled snap on all plays. A 10 center would have a 60% less chance of allowing a fumbled snap while a 3 center would increase it by 50%.
The offense to increase pass protection can choose the maximum protection option on pass plays. By doing so the chance of sack is decreased by aproximately 2=3% Computer keeps into block best blocker(s) available. If a pass is thrown to that blocker the pass will be incomplete. If a team that has chosen the maximum protection the play by play will make reference to the additional protection of the quarterback. Downside of max protect feature is a significant decrease in completion protection.
Offensive Play calling
The play calling is all based on reducing completion percentage, rushing avg per play and making risk determinations.
Running plays are risk rated. The more conservative inside run will get less avg yds than the highest risk inside play draw but it will lose less yds and reduce turnover percentage.
The off tackle is the mid rated running play as far as risk/ reward is concerned.
Outside running plays work the same way.
lowest risk/reward sweep-highest risk/reward the reverse.
Note that the chance of fumbling a Pitch is minimally 1% regardless of whether the RB ever fumbled!
Pass plays: You can pick a receiver as a primary receiver but whether a receiver will actually have the ball thrown to him depends on how deep the pass play is. Deep passes primary receiver might be picked only about 65% of the time while short passes could be as high as 90%.
completion % of pass decreases based on risk of pass.
QB completion percentage based on medium pass and avg for completion is based on a medium pass.
Short passes & screen completion % is increased by 30% of base comp% Long decrease completion percentage by 25% of base Comp%
Bomb decrease by about 40% of base comp%
Sideline is considered a medium and avg gain per pass is slightly less.
These %'s are based on Defense calling a basic defense which means that the defensive play call will have no statistical effect on the offensive play.
Avg gain per pass play:
Screen 60-75% of Medium Gain
Short 70-80% of Medium Gain
Sideline slightly less than medium gain
long twice medium gain
Bomb about three times medium gain.
Inside passes have higher int % than outside pass plays but outside pass plays gain less yds per play and int ret yardage is higher.
EX Bomb vs. short Man/short zone (+30% * base comp% increase in bomb comp%)
QB base comp% 60
60* .6= 36% + short man 30% * Base Comp 60*30% =+18%
36+18=54% 54% chance of completing to avg receiver the bomb.
Short or Screen vs short Man
60% * 30%= 18% + 60% = 78% -20%(tight man/short zone reduction) =58% comp% or is it 60+ 30=90-20
Other pass play options and offensive formations:
Trips: Designed to defeat zones on one side of the field or another. Most effective running on side opposite of the "trip" since defenders must move to cover the additional receivers on one side of the field.
I formation: Deep Back has 1.0 yds per gain added to his average. Blocking back has it reduced.
Empty Backfield: Increases completion %, Sack % and int % across the board. Completion % to backs up by about 5%. Can't Run standard run plays out of this formation.
Rollout gives the QB the opportunity to run or pass. Running % is based on how often QB actually runs. Reduces the chances of sk but also reduces avg gain per play by 10%. The chances for an intentional grounding penalty are greatly reduced.
Play action increases the chance of completion of pass play by 10 % if defense calls run or stacked line. Chance of completion decreases by 10 % if defense calls a pass defense. Basic defensive call will have no effect against play action. Keying on an RB will not be affected by calling play action.
Shotgun decreases QB's sack % but increases the chance of a fumbled snap. A bad snap occurs every 25 attempts on avg a fumbled snap in shotgun occurs every 75 attempts on avg. A shotgun formation is denoted by the QB moving farther away from behind the center . Shotgun also reduces the number of yards gained on draw plays.
No Scramble option tells QB not to run. Decreased completion % and increased int % will occur if this option is chosen.
Man in Motion has no effect on any play except it has a positive offensive effect if offense calls isolate man and defense plays "man" defense.
Medium Seam decreases risk and increases reward when defense calls zone defenses. Ex. Spread, Zone, Short Zone and Prevent.
Risk is increased and reward decreased if man coverage is called.
Medium Isolate is the converse of the Flood Zone. It is effective against man defenses.
Medium Hitch- Better against zone than man coverage play is designed to get consistent yardage close to avg gain per completion for QB and receiver.
Basic defense is not affected by these two plays.
Flea flickers and Rb/qb options
A flea flicker is rated as a long pass with the same risks reward except that comp % works like play action either a 5% or 10% increase if the team calls run the reverse if the defense calls pass.
RB Option the RB runs or passes
If RB runs play is treated as a sweep running play.
If the RB passes play is treated as a medium pass.
Big thing is that whenever a RB throws the ball there is a built in 8% int rate. comp% acts like a 5% play action.
QB option same as Rb option except no int % adjustment. Chances for fumbling on a QB/RB option is increase 10-15% of the runner's fumble %. If the QB pitches the ball on the option then the 1% built in pitch fumble % is added on top of the running back's regular fumble %.
Note that if RB had passing attempts but no completions there is a minimum comp% in the low 30's with a 70% avg gain of the league average. This means that a RB who did not complete the pass still has a slim opportunity to do so if his number is called.
DEFENSE PLAY CALLING
Defensive play calling is also based on risk/reward.
Aggressive Play
Playing 'aggressive' defense will cause more fumbles, force more interception,
and cause a lower completion percentage. The statistical trade-off is a rushing
average nearly a yard higher than average and yards per catch of about 30%
higher.
PASS DEFENSE
A defense can choose to play run or pass man or zone on every play.
Man or Zone pass coverage decreases all pass comp% by 12.5 % regardless of offensive call. EX. Offense calls a medium out QB comp % is 60% receiver is nfl avg for catches. Defender (if in man coverage) is rated a 6 All other factors being neutral medium completion % is 47.5%.
Man coverage looks to the defender assigned to a receiver in coverage to determine the result based on the following formula. Matchups are shown in the scouting report. A 10 on defense in man coverage will be able to neutralize a receiver who caught about 100 passes. Also interception ability of the defender covering the receiver thrown to will be considered. Man coverage now accounts for 80% of the points to be considered while the teams actual total defense points only counts 20%
To determine the actual defensive outcome of man coverage on a given receiver you need to apply the following formula: (TEAM PASS DEFENSE POINTS +_ 30 + defender pass points* .8/2) defender pass points are determined as follows
Defender pass points
10= 50 pass defense points
9= 45
8= 40
7= 35
6= 30
5= 25
4= 20
3= 15
2= 10
1= 5
0= 0
Ex. team pass defense points 35 defender pass rating 10
+7 because 35 points is = to a 7 rated pass defender (+10*4)=47 which is a 17 point increase in pass defense from league avg of 30 and a 12 point increase over the zone defense. If defense were a zone when it would only be a 35. .In man coverage the defense is a 47= 8.5% decrease in overall completion % when in man coverage. In zone coverage decrease would be 2.9%
Man and Zone defenses are mirror images of each other they only effect the risk/reward aspect of the play not comp %.
Zone is less risky which means less big plays both offensively and defensively. Zone is softer on the yds but harder to get the "big" play. Windows version-zone defenses will allow slightly greater completion % than man coverage. Zone coverage especially deep zone will allow less breakaways.
Short Zone and Man effective against reducing the completion % of the short pass plays by about 20 % but conversely increases the completion % and increase risk on long pass plays.
Blitz and prevent defense do the opposite of the short converages. Blitz and Prevent most effective against deep pass risk reward greatest with the blitz. Chance of a sack is enhanced on a blitz if offense calls a deep pass play.
Windows version allows blitz call to be independent of man and zone coverage.
New for 2001 you can blitz independently from calling a run or pass defense. Completion % increases if you are passing to players that were left open by the blitzing player. Also, runs and passes directed toward zones vacated by blitzing players should be more effective.
Blitz increases sack percentage, reduces completion % for all pass plays and results in more turnovers. The more you blitz the more you positively and negatively affect outcome... Avg gain per play much higher...chance of breakaway and loss of yardage much higher.
Basic defense has no effect on offensive play.
None of the pass defenses Zone, Man, or Blitz have any differing effect on running plays. Except for risk/reward. Conservative and aggressive defenses do have effect on yds gain per rush depending on whether offense goes outside or inside the effect is +- 1/2 yd per carry..
Keying/Double cover has the obvious effects on when you guess right. It greatly decreases the effectiveness of a runner or receiver. Guessing wrong exposes one to an increased risk/ and efficiency depending on the offensive play called. Guessing right increases the chance of an inc. sack or turnover Keying effectiveness is determined by how often a runner carries the ball. Ex. Keying will have less of an effect on Emmet Smith than on Dave "Maggot". Up to a 4 and 1/2 yd reduction per play can occur with keying. Guess right on Double Coverage can decrease the chance of the DC receiver from catching the ball up to 45 %.
Triple Coverage-Triple coverage as the name implies significantly increases the ability to stop a receiver from catching the ball. Throwing to another not tripled receiver chances of completion are great.
"DOUBLE TWO"- Double two receivers principle is the same as double one receiver.
Windows version-- PLAY INSIDE OUTSIDE AND MIDDLE BY SLANTING THE DLINE-Once again now one has greater flexibility in keying and playing to one side or another. Principles remain the same guess right significant reduction in yds per play guess wrong and the opposite occurs. Now you can guess outside run instead of having to be specific on whether the run is left or right. This will have a less severe effect on the play both in allowing a big gain and in stopping the run play.
Goal Line defense All out run defense effective to stop short yardage inside running near the goal line however if Rb's breaks through the line risk of big play is great. Risk of big pass play is also great. Goal Line is better against the pass than stacked line used to be. Especially against the short pass.
Windows version--Goaline is not considered a run defense and it decreases completion percentage across the board. Goal line is not affected by the play action pass.
Ex. QB 60% comp run vs bomb all other factors neutral
60 * .6 + 13 = approx 49% chance of comp
stacked vs bomb 60 * .6 + 25= approx 61% chance of comp!
FATIGUE Offensive players get tired based on the number of carries, receptions, or passes made. There are two types of fatigue game fatigue and season fatigue. The game will reflect this by putting a C, R, or P over the player's name. Defensive players do not get tired. Game fatigue is calculated by dividing the number of total catches rushes, etc by ten. QB's do not experience game fatigue but do experience season fatigue and injury frequency is based on passing attempts. In ver 2.0+, the actual point that game fatigue kicks in can vary but will avg out to "attempts" + 10%. The biggest factor effecting when fatigue kicks in is the weather conditions. ie. (hot or cold).
EX.1 Receiver caught 70 passes in a season. In a game a receiver can catch a total of approx 5-9 passes before getting tired. Once a receiver is tired his catching ability will be reduced according to the formula below. Yardage per catch is also affected but not as much. Season fatigue sets in once he makes his 80th catch. Ex. 2 Qb passes 300 times in season he can throw 50 passes in a game and will not get tired but once he passes 360 attempts he will get tired and will be less effective. Offensive player season fatigue is approximately %110 of actual attempts based on the actual number of games played. Special team’s players get tired on twice their attempts for the season
Tired QB's int % automatically goes up to at least 8%! if QB int % is over 6% to begin with then it increases 20%. Qb's comp% drops 10% across the board. If QB comp % greater than 66% then it drops down more. Avg gain per play drops 20% max on any completed pass play. Regardless of whether the receiver is also tired.
Tired Receiver comp% drops 10% also avg gain drops 10-20%.
Tired runner drops 32% of his avg per carry.
Tired PR avg drops to 6 yds per return
Tired KR avg drops to 12.
Chance of breakaway reduced by 50% on avg once the player is tired. If LG is usually 50 then 50% chance LG will only by 25 yds. Fumbles increase 20% if a player that did not fumble is tired he is given one fumble regardless of the number of carries or receptions.
NEW FOR VERSION 3.1+ defensive linemen experience game fatigue during any given drive the longer the drive lasts as determined by the number of plays actually run. I do not know at this team the precise statistical effect of this fatigue.
PENALTIES- Penalties are just like real football but they occur randomly roughly with the same frequency and type as in real life. Long P.I. penalties are rare but they do occur. NEW We now have the option of changing penalty ratings by team and home field advantage by team. More penalties occur on passing plays than running plays.
Weather The weather affects the game. Windy weather can +- comp % by up to 15% for every type of pass play. Rain or snow will tend to increase turnovers. Hot weather in comparison to regular location climate will increase the all around offensive ability of a team. More Bad Snaps will occur in inclement weather. Especially from shotgun.
CLOCK MANAGEMENT
Timeouts/Hurried plays- Timeouts and hurried plays are called DURING the play. An off timeout is called at the time the offensive coach wants to call a timeout. Ex. when offense has to call its play then a timeout called during that time will always be charged to the offense! Timeouts basically half the time it takes to run a play. Hurried plays are activated either by calling a T or + during the play result. A hurried play affects the upcoming offensive calls. They save time but run an increased risk of fumbled snap and off penalties. Hurried plays also lock the off and defense into their previous platoon.
Note that in situations where a timeout was not needed inc pass or o.b. play the timeout called will not be charged.
QB can randomly call timeouts in non internet play only.
Approximate times of a play
In bounds, clock does not stop 30-45
Out of bounds and with more than 5 min left in half
Gains of less than 20 yds 15-22 sec
Gains of 21-49 yds 20-30 sec
Gains of 50+ 25-31 seconds
Out of bounds with less than 5 min in half
Less than 20 yds 6-12 sec
21-49 yds 10-17 sec
50+ 15-21 sec
KO and Punts 6-12 sec
FG 4-8 sec
Change of possession plays 6-12 sec
Incomplete passes 5-9 sec
Slow down mode-The game now has a kill the clock mode that you choose from the options menu. It adds about 10 secs to each in bounds play. The only penalty is an increased chance of delay of game penalties.
Spike the ball-This results in loss of down but saves time on prior play called.
Enhanced Defensive effects
In ver 2.0+ Dave has instituted a RED ZONE feature which decreases the amounts of yds per play gained by an offense inside the opponents 30. The yardage gained varies according to the total defensive point rating of the unit on the field. Also, Dave has said that long gainers will be limited by defensive pt totals.
(4-20-93) version 2.0+ Linemen effects
Off linemen/Def linemen pts will now effect yardage distribution up to 20%. This mean that a higher rated run blocking line or run def will have a greater chance of picking up or preventing the one or two yd gain than a weaker line. This new factor enhances the importance of Def run pts and Off linemen.
Note that only players actually involved in the blocking are calculated in the ORB rating. ie. The rb running with ball is not included in ORB rating for that play. If TE is on the wrong side of the field TE block rating pts of two will affect the play as if it were only on pt. If TE is at the point of attack then TE will affect the play as if 3 block pts.
THE RED ZONE SCORING PLAYERS and RED ZONE EFFECTS
Runners
Players who have high TD % will average higher yds per carry inside the 5 yd line than other players. Therefore Emmet will be tougher to stop inside the 5 yd line. This is based on TD's Per attempt.
Receivers
Same thing as runners except for receivers it’s inside the 15. The high TD% receivers will be more likely to get enough yds to get in as compared to those who don’t. For passing the QB's TD% also becomes a factor.
Inside the RED ZONE you are no
Longer able to call long passes. It’s also harder to pick up yardage the closer you get to the goaline.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Home field is on a scale of 0-5
A team rated with a HFA (Home Field Advantage) of 0 will play better at home than on the road because their opponent will have the negative factor of being on the road. Only if both teams had a HFA of 0 would it not matter.
For your second point as
far what HFA advantage is best to have...it depends. The Broncos have a 5 HFA
meaning that they should be very difficult to beat at home but conversely
should have a much tougher time on the road.
It would be advantageous for them to have that 5 HFA if their schedule
for a particular year was loaded with the majority of their tougher opponents
scheduled to be played at home. It would hurt them in years where the opposite
was true. In theory, a team with a high HFA "needs" to win their home
games more than a team with a lower HFA. A team with a lower HFA on the other
hand, doesn't have a huge advantage/disadvantage either way. They won't be
nearly as tough at home (relatively speaking) but they also won't struggle as
much on the road. It really depends on your team & schedule on which would
be advantageous for a particular team any given year.
That's exactly how it works. For example a team whose home stadium is rated '3' will get about .3 yards added to rushing averages at home but .3 is taken away on the road. The higher the rating, the bigger the adjustments.