We are building for the future. We are building for 2003. We are building for the new stadium.
How many times in the past few years have we heard those lines coming from Reds' management? Sure, in the past few years the Reds have been trading high-priced veterans for low-priced prospects - for the most part - but just wait until 2003 when the new stadium is here. Then the prospects will be big league stars and the Reds will be great again. They will have all that new stadium revenue to sign free agents and retain the current stars and no more penny-pinching. Or so that's the plan.
Call me a cynic, call me a pessimist but I'm not so sure that is going to be the case. Is management just leading us down the primrose path and taking us for suckers? I really don't think that's the case. I truly think that they believe that come 2003, they will be ready to become dominant or at the very least, competitive. But unless the financial landscape changes drastically, I don't see the Reds getting into that upper echelon of the teams that compete for the World Series year after year.
Having a new stadium doesn't guarantee that pretenders will all of a sudden become contenders. Last season the Giants, Tigers and Astros all opened new stadiums. All three teams got off to terrible starts but only the Giants recovered enough to go to the playoffs and the Giants didn't make it past the first round. The Astros, for instance, didn't act like a team who was spending their new stadium money. They traded Mike Hampton, Derrick Bell and Carl Everett in the off-season. They didn't try to acquire a shortstop or additional pitching. They felt that they could make the moves that they did and still be dominant. They still drew plenty of fans but all it meant was some additional revenue that went God knows where. If they are raking in all this money, why hasn't Jeff Bagwell re-signed with them yet?
Now there is a huge if in this theory. If the financial situation doesn't change in baseball then I believe the Reds will be no better off than they were before. There is a labor agreement that will expire after the 2001 season. When there is an agreement, it is unknown whether it will hurt teams like the Reds or be beneficial towards them. History would indicate the former. But let's operate under the assumption that things won't change and 2003 rolls around. Let's also assume that the Reds will bump the payroll up to $60 million or - dare we dream - $70 million. Even if it goes up to $70 million, salaries are increasing so much that someone like Pokey Reese - who is currently making just under $2 million - will be making $6 to $8 million by 2003. That's what the Reds were paying Barry Larkin before they re-signed him to a new deal. And Barry is one of the best shortstops in the National League.
ESPN columnist Peter Gammons was right in a recent column when he said, "One starts to wonder how many teams can afford to keep putting $10-20M players on their credit cards, and that if the answer is finite, when and where some players start to lose out (hello, Juan Gonzalez). Take the Dodgers. They're already at a $78M payroll for next season, and once they sign a pitcher (Dreifort?) and Chan Ho Park has won his $11M-13M in arbitration, they will be over $100M. Since Gary Sheffield's recent no-trade list eliminates, as one GM says, "every good, wealthy team," what it would take to move him would be so prohibitive it is virtually impossible. So, for the Dodgers to sign a Charles Johnson to a Jason Kendall deal would zoom them in towards $120M when all is said and signed. Or to sign A-Rod? How does $130M sound." Now if the Dodgers are having problems, what hope is there for the Reds?
When there were just a few teams with new stadiums, Cleveland, Baltimore, Atlanta, it was easy to compete with the Mets and Yankees and Dodgers of the world. Now several more teams have new yards now. It's somewhat easier now for those teams to compete with the elite but now they are competing with each other as well. Last year, a team like San Francisco could afford a free agent or trade for a high salaried player and they knew the competition to get that player was limited. Now if they want a player of that caliber, they have to compete with teams like Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. So a team like Frisco can't buy up all the mid-level free agents because of competition from other teams with new stadiums.
These teams can compete on their own level but they still aren't going to be able to compete with the elite teams. The Yankees could see someone like Kris Benson eligible for arbitration and offer Pittsburgh a few players in return for the Pirates not having to pay Benson $10-$12 million a year. New ballpark revenue can only go so far. Heed those words come 2003.
I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here or be a party pooper but even with a new ballpark you can't compete with the Yankees and Mets on the same level. They will always have more money than the other teams. And right now, it's money that wins championships. The more
money, the better chance you have of winning. Sure, the Reds might draw better than the larger market teams but those teams also charge more for their seats. So the Reds could draw better than the elite teams but receive less revenue from it.
I haven't even mentioned the TV revenue yet. Even if - and that's a huge if - stadium revenue was the same everywhere, the large market teams just blow the smaller market teams away when it comes to radio and TV revenue. The Chicago's and Atlanta's make 10 times what teams like the Reds do. Ain't no stadium in the world going to make up that difference. I'm all for making a buck and free enterprise but unless some new form of revenue sharing is adopted it will be nearly impossible for the smaller market teams to survive - with or without new stadiums.
There seems to be a lot of fans that feel that even now the Reds make a tidy profit and they should use that profit to raise the payroll and compete with the elite teams. I don't know if the Reds make a profit. I don't work there. I'm not even qualified to speculate on whether or not they make money. I do know that it is not only possible but it is legal to make money on a baseball franchise and declare a loss. As long as the owners don't open their books up for the public to see if they really made any money, they can cry poormouth all the way to the bank. When owners did open their books, economists found out all their dirty little secrets and the owners got mad about it. But the question isn't whether or not they make a profit, the question is if they do make a profit, then where does the profit go?
Some think that it goes into an account for potential cost overruns for the new stadium. Others believe that it is going into a strike fund in case there is a work stoppage after 2001. There are those who believe that Lindner and his partners are divvying up the profits amongst themselves. Any of these are plausible solutions as to where the money is going.
If the Reds are actually bringing in more money than they are spending, however way you slice it most of the profits aren't being put back into the Reds to pay players and managers. If this is the case, no amount of new stadium money is going to make the Reds equal to the large market
teams. But it wouldn't make a bit of difference either way. Whether the Reds put all, some or none of their alleged profits into payroll, they still can't compete with the elite clubs. They might be able to hold their own with the Pittsburgh's and Milwaukee's but not with the teams who get deep into the playoffs and into the World Series year after year. Perhaps there will be an increase in radio and TV revenues but it won't be even close enough to make a difference. Maybe the Reds can be the best in their own division but advancing any further than the divisional series is dreaming. It doesn't mean I won't be a Reds' fan but if nothing changes drastically revenue wise, the Reds are going to war armed only with a shotgun. They might blow away some teams armed with pistols but eventually the heavy artillery of the Yankees and Mets and Braves will blow them away...