Daily rants and opinions...because we're THAT bored.
by Skinner - Sunday, March 9
Let me first say that the aformentioned Duke vs. UNC game was by far the game of the year. Both teams were playing so hard on both ends of the floor, the Cameron Crazies were rocking the stadium once again, and to top it all off the refs didn't try to take over the game. Most basketball games of today come equiped with dead certain referees that would love nothing more than to control the game and let their actions decide the outcome. This game on Saturday night was the exact converse of that. Fouls were only called when absolutely necessary, instead of the usual, "Hey, that looked like contact. (Wistle)!!!" Seriously this game was a joy to behold.
So now I get to the point of the article. My excitement has reached such a high level that I will be breaking one of my cardinal rules (Oh, yes, I have them. They are listed on a piece of paper I keep attached to my body. You guess where.). The order that I will shatter is the notion of making predictions. I am normally 100% against making any sort of prognosis about a sporting event or real life (not that sports are some sort of existential dimension apart from this world). My arousal of sorts for this year's tournament has brought me to the point where I must act. So here are my projections for the field of 65.
The projections will be organized by seeds and I will seperate this analysis into two parts: 1.) The teams that are locks. 2.) The teams that are "unlocked."
Number Ones:
Locks - North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
I believe the number one seeds will play out exactly like this and the only change I could see is Texas substited for Kansas (Provided they win today). The only other team I would consider putting in the top spot is Tennessee, but they would have to win the SEC tournament and hope for another team to colapse.
Twos:
Locks - Texas, Tennessee, Duke
I think these three teams are "cold-hard-lead-pipe-locks" for at the least two seeds, which is why I listed them above. Who is the last one? That might get difficult.
Others to consider - Stanford, Xavier, Wisconsin, Georgetown
This is a touch choice but I would have to go with Wisconsin. If they win the Big 10 tournament I think that will lock up the Badgers a two seed. Xavier I think comes in next followed by Georgetown. As of right now Stanford could be anywhere from a 2 to a 5 seed. They are struggling with some tough losses.
To wrap in up here is the complete list of two seeds:
Texas, Tennessee, Duke, Wisconsin
Threes:
Locks - Xavier, Georgetown
Out of these two teams I think Georgetown carries the most weight being in a tougher conference but Xavier's run through the regular season was impressive. Barring a colapse in the Atlantic-10 tournament the Muskateers should be a three seed.
Others to consider - Stanford, Louisville, Purdue, UCONN, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Butler, Drake
This is long list and is a sign that the 3-5 seeded teams in this year's tournament will be quite good. The two teams that I have to go with here are Vanderbilt and Stanford. Stanford played well and had a few heartbreaking losses in a competitive Pac-10 conference. Although Vanderbilt played in a weaker conference with the SEC, they get the nod because of some big wins over top teams.
The complete list:
Xavier, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Stanford
Fours:
Locks - Drake, Butler, Notre Dame
The two great surprises of this season have to be the Drake Bulldogs and the Butler Bulldogs (successful year for that breed). They both play solid, disciplined team basketball and a very deserving of a four seed. Notre Dame is somewhat of a surprise and had a great year in the colossial Big East. Luke Harangody can be added to the growing list of solid inside post players in the NCAA.
Others to consider - Purdue, Louisville, UCONN, Michigan State, Indiana
Only one team gets to be in the top sixteen of the seeds and it has to be a Big East school. Actually it doesn't have to, but I will choose one anyway. The team is... Louisville. This was a very tough decision between Louisville and UCONN as both teams have played their best basketball in the past month.
Final list:
Drake, Butler, Notre Dame, Louisville
Fives:
Locks - Purdue, UCONN, Michigan State, Indiana
Some might have thought that these three Big Ten teams are deserved of higher rankings. I do not really agree seeing how the Big Ten was not very competitive from top to bottom.
Sixes:
Locks - Davidson, Gonzaga, Washington State, BYU
Sevens:
Locks: Who knows?
This is where things get tricky and the outcomes will be determined by the mid-major conference tournaments. If the teams expected to win those tournaments do in fact win, then that takes away some bubble spots of a lot of teams. So this analysis needs to be rehashed.
Teams that could potentially make it. I have no idea what their seeds might be, but I will say whether or not I think they deserve to be in:
UMBC (That's University of Maryland Baltimore County) - In
Clemson - In
Virginia Tech - In
Maryland - In
Miami (Fla.) - Out
Belmont - In (Tournament winner)
Temple - Out
UMASS - In
St. Joes - Out
West Virginia - In
Pittsburgh - In
Villanova - In
Syracuse - Out
Portland State - In
Winthrop - In (Tournament winner)
UNC-Ashville - Out
Ohio State - In
Kansas State - In
Baylor - In
Oklahoma - In
Texas A&M - In
Winner of Big West Conference Tournament - In (I'm pathetically lazy on this one)
VCU - In
George Mason - Out
UAB - In
Houston - Out
Cornell - In (Tournament winner)
Winnder of MAAC conference tournament - In (I'm getting even more lazy)
Kent State - In
Akron - Out
Western Michigan - Out
Winner of MEAC conference tournament - In (Seriously, you don't expect me to know a thing about this conference do you? I'm a college student, I have tests to study for... then what am I doing here?)
Illinois State - In
Creighton -In
Southern Illinois - In
UNLV - In
New Mexico - Out
Winner of Northeast conference tournament - In
Austin Peay - In (Tournament winner)
USC - In
Winner of the Patriot League conference tournament - In
Kentucky - In
Florida - In
Arkansas - In
Winners of Southland, Summit League, Sun Belt, SWAC, and Western Athletic conference tournaments - In
St. Marys (Ca.) - In
San Diago - In
Some astute readers will find that is was generous to some conferences (Big 12, Missouri Valley, SEC) and so generous to others (all the smaller conferences I marginalized). Well, this takes a lot of work and the only stuff I really had a clue on was the top six seeds. The rest is too hard to figure out because the automatic bids are far from being completed. Maybe that means I shouldn't have ventured so far as to go and project who's in and who's out for some 50 teams. Well, that is just how excited I am! This madness of the current month is causing me do go out and do incrediably illogical things! Yea, that's why...