SCAN Homework #4 WX Briefing
******** FA Hazards and Flight Precautions ******** current report not available ******** FA Synopsis and VFR Clouds/Weather ******** CHIC FA 241845 SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 251300 CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 250700...OTLK VALID 250700-251300 ND SD NE KS MN IA MO WI LM LS MI LH IL IN KY . SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCN. TS IMPLY SEV OR GTR TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS. NON MSL HGTS DENOTED BY AGL OR CIG. . SYNOPSIS...STG SFC LO PRES 18Z OVR NERN MN WL MOV SLOLY ENEWRD THRU PD...AND BY 12Z WL BO LOCATED OVR SW ONTARIO. CDFNT FM LO ACRS ERN WI AND SE MO INTO CNTRL TX. FNT WL MOV RPDLY SEWRD THRU PD AND BY 12Z WL XTND FM CNTRL NY ACRS WRN NC AND SW GA INTO CNTRL GULFMEX. STG LO LVL WNDS ARND LO PRES WL CONT THRU PD. ..BB.. . LS UPR MI CIG OVC-BKN010-020. TOPS LYRD FL250. OCNL VIS 3-5SM IN WDLY SCT -SHRA BR. OTLK...MVFR CIG RA SN. . LM LWR MI LH CIG OVC-BKN015-025. TOPS LYRD FL250. OCNL VIS 3-5SM IN SCT TSRA/SHRA. CB TOPS FL400. TS POSS SEV FRMG LINES. 02Z AGL SCT- BKN030. TOPS 100. WNDS W 20G30KT. OTLK...VFR WND. . IL NW HLF...CIG BKN-OVC020-030. TOPS LYRD FL250. OCNL CIG OVC015 VIS 3-5SM IN SCT SHRA. TIL 20Z ISOL EMBD -TSRA. CB TOPS FL350. 22Z CIG BKN070. TOPS 160. WDLY SCT -SHRA. 00Z SCT080. WNDS NW 20G30KT. OTLK...VFR WND. SE HLF...AGL SCT-BKN030. TOPS 080. OCNL CIG OVC015 VIS 3SM IN SCT TSRA/SHRA. CB TOPS FL400. TS POSS SEV FRMG LINES. 23Z AGL SCT030 CIG BKN070. TOPS 150. WDLY SCT -SHRA. 01Z SCT080. WNDS NW 15G25KT. OTLK...VFR WND. . IN CIG BKN-OVC020-030. TOPS 080. OCNL CIG OVC015 VIS 3SM IN SCT TSRA/SHRA. CB TOPS FL400. TS POSS SEV FRMG LINES. 03Z AGL SCT035 CIG BKN060. WDLY SCT -SHRA. 05Z SCT080. WNDS W 15G25KT. OTLK...VFR WND. . ******** Severe Weather Outlook ******** MKC AC 242006 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN..WESTERN OHIO..MOST OF INDIANA.. SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS..WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY..AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 30 NNW MFD 25 W CMH 20 WSW LEX 20 E BWG 20 SW BWG 40 SE PAH 35 ESE POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNW LAF 10 ENE SBN 20 N ARB 25 ESE DTW. SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PART OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN..CENTRAL OHIO..PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY..WEST AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE..AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE MBS 35 E MTC 15 ENE CLE 10 WNW HTS 40 SSW LOZ 35 NE HSV MEM 10 SE ARG 25 ESE BLV 35 SE CGX 15 ENE MBS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ROC 20 E DUJ 15 NNW BKW 20 NNW TRI 20 ENE 0A8 15 NNE MEI 35 NW JAN 40 N HOT 15 E BLV 30 SSE CGX 25 N MKE 30 NNW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB 30 ENE ESF 45 NNW HOT 35 SSW CGX 40 SW IMT 25 NNW MQT ...CONT... 30 NNW PBG 15 SSE SSU 25 NE AGS 25 S SAV. ...SYNOPSIS... RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO EAST TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY 25/06Z. ---WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE INCCLUDING TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IN PROGRESS--- ...SRN IL/WRN KY INTO WRN OHIO/SERN MICHIGAN... STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EVIDENT IN IN/IL AREA CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL STAGES OF EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS. LOW SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. WEAK REMAINS OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE NEAR KY/OH BORDER AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO FORM TRIPLE POINT ALONG IL/IN BORDER WEST OF LAF. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. GIVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN SQUALL LINE AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF LINE IN INDIANA...EXPECT THREAT OF TORNADOES TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY AS SQUALL LINE RACES EAST AND 500 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 100+ KNOTS. ..CRAVEN.. 10/24/01 ******** Severe Weather Warnings ******** MKC WW 241938 MIZ000-LMZ000-LHZ000-250200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 799 STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 338 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001 THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 415 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KALAMAZOO MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW MICHIGAN. REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 797...WW 798... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT CROSSING LKAE MICHIGAN...AND OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NWRN INDIANA INTO SWRN LOWER MI BY 21-22Z. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGRR SHOWS STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. ...WEISS ;414,0872 435,0863 435,0820 414,0830; MKC AWW 241938 WW 799 TORNADO MI LM LH 242015Z - 250200Z AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40SSE AZO/KALAMAZOO MI/ - 35NNW MBS/SAGINAW MI/ ..AVIATION COORDS..95NM E/W /43 N FWA - 30 NNW MBS/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. MKC AWW 241819 WW 798 TORNADO AR IL KY MO TN 241845Z - 250000Z AXIS..115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 65W MEM/MEMPHIS TN/ - 45NE CGI/CAPE GIRARDEAU MO/ ..AVIATION COORDS..100NM E/W /59 E FAM - 56 ENE LIT/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. MKC AWW 241628 WW 797 TORNADO IL IN KY MO OH 241645Z - 250000Z AXIS..135 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 5SSW MDH/CARBONDALE IL/ - 55NNW FWA/FORT WAYNE IN/ ..AVIATION COORDS..115NM E/W /33 E GIJ - 45 E FAM/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040. MKC WW-A 242105 MIZ000-242200- STATUS REPORT ON WW 799 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SBN TO 35 SSW MKG TO 35 NW MKG. ..PETERS..10/24/01 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... ******** SIGMETs ******** MIAQ WS 251645 SIGMET QUEBEC 1 VALID UNTIL 252045 NC SC FROM HMV TO 30NW GSO TO CLT TO ODF TO GQO TO HMV OCNL SEV TURB BLW 100. CONDS RPRTD BY ACFT. CONDS ENDG BY 2045Z. WDH ******** Convective SIGMET ******** MKCC WST 242155 CONVECTIVE SIGMET 41C VALID UNTIL 2355Z TN KY MI IN IL MO AR LM FROM 20NE TVC-20E IND-40NNE PXV-40NNW DYR-20SSE LIT LINE SEV TS 40 NM WIDE MOV FROM 27030KT. TOPS TO FL400. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 IN...WIND GUSTS TO 70 KT POSS. ...CELLS MOV FROM 23050KT... OUTLOOK VALID 242355-250355 FROM SSM-BUF-LYH-IGB-ELD-STL-SSM REF WW 797 798 799 800. CDFNT MOVG SE XTNDS FM SFC LOW IN NERN MN THRU NERN IL AND SE MO INTO W CNTRL TX. NWD MOVG WMFNT XTNDS FM CNTRL LM INTO NW PA. UPR TROF IS MOVG E ACRS NRN AND CNTRL GTPLNS WITH MIDLVL SHRTWV TROF FM LWR MI TO TN VLY. TS DVLPMT/REDVLPMT EXPD ESP ALONG SFC BDRYS ENHANCED BY UPR DYNAMICS...LLVL WAA...AND DIURNAL HTG. TS ACT EXPCD TO BE STG/SEV WITH STG GUSTY WNDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSS TORNADOES ESP OVR PTNS OF OH VLY. CONTG WST ISSUANCES EXPD THRUT PD. GJP ******** Center Weather Advisory ******** ZJX2 CWA 250020 ZJX CWA 204 VALID UNTIL 250220 ISSUED BY MIAMI CWSU FROM 10W TLH TO 50ENE TLH TO CTY TO 10W TLH AREA OF SCT SHRA AND TS. MOV FROM 24015KT. MAX TOPS TO FL400. GRAD DECREASE XPCD NXT 2 HRS. PH ZMA2 CWA 250015 ZMA CWA 205 VALID UNTIL 250215 FROM 80SW SRQ TO 210W PIE TO 90S TLH TO 80SW SRQ AREA OF SCT SHRA AND TS. MOV FROM 24015KT. MAX TOPS TO FL400. GRAD DECREASE XPCD NXT 2 HRS. PH ******** AIRMETs ******** CHIS WA 241945 AIRMET SIERRA UPDT 3 FOR IFR VALID UNTIL 250200 . . AIRMET IFR...WI IL MI LS LM FROM YQT TO SSM TO ORD TO DLL TO YQT OCNL CIG BLW 010 AND/OR VIS BLW 3SM PCPN BR. CONDS ENDG WRN PTNS 00-02Z CONTG ERN PTNS BYD 02Z...ENDG 04-06Z. .... CHIT WA 241945 AIRMET TANGO UPDT 3 FOR TURB VALID UNTIL 250200 . AIRMET TURB...MO IL MI IN KY AR LA TN MS AL FROM SSM TO YVV TO DXO TO FWA TO CVG TO HNN TO HMV TO GQO TO MCB TO ELD TO ORD TO SSM OCNL MOD TURB BLW 100 ASSOCD WITH STG SWLY LO LVL WINDS AHD CDFNT. CONDS CONTG BYD 02Z...ENDG WRN PTNS ARND 04Z...CONTG ELSW THRU 08Z. . CHIZ WA 250145 AIRMET ZULU FOR ICE AND FRZLVL VALID UNTIL 250800 . . AIRMET ICE...MI LS LH IN FROM YQT TO SSM TO YVV TO DXO TO FWA TO CVG TO IND TO PMM TO TVC TO YQT OCNL MOD RIME/MXD ICGICIP BTN 100 AND FL200. CONDS ENDG IN BY 04Z..SHFT EWD AND ENDG ELSW BY 08Z. . FRZLVL...AT 02Z..SFC-040 N AND W OF A YQT-DBQ-DSM-RAP LN..SLPG TO 040-080 ELSW N AND W OF A MQT-GRR-PXV-OSW-LAA LN..080-120 ELSW. BY 08Z..SFC-040 N AND W OF A SSM-FWA-DEC-PWE-BFF LN..SLPG TO 040- 080 ELSW EXC 080-100 ERN KY. ******** Surface Observations ******** METAR KORD 242056Z 29008G16KT 10SM -RA FEW029 BKN050 OVC080 11/09 A2937 RMK AO2 SLP945 P0010 60051 T01060089 53014 $ METAR KLOT 242047Z AUTO 30010KT 10SM BKN050 OVC065 11/08 A2939 RMK AO1 P0006 METAR KMDW 242053Z 29010KT 10SM -RA FEW019 BKN047 OVC060 11/10 A2939 RMK AO2 SLP950 P0007 60041 T01110100 53018 $ SPECI KMDW 242126Z 26007KT 10SM -RA BKN015 OVC055 11/10 A2940 RMK AO2 P0002 $ METAR KCGX 242055Z 30012KT 8SM -RA OVC043 11/11 A2936 METAR KIGQ 242048Z AUTO 30007KT 10SM -VCTSRA SCT022 BKN048 OVC090 11/10 A2939 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE THRU SE METAR KSBN 242054Z 10007KT 7SM -TSRA FEW044 OVC085 19/18 A2926 RMK AO2 TSB31RAB00 PRESFR SLP904 FRQ LTGICCCCA SW-NW TS SW-NW MOV NE P0006 60006 T01940178 58056 SPECI KSBN 242059Z 08028G50KT 1 1/2SM TSRA BR SQ FEW021 BKN075 OVC090 19/18 A2916 RMK AO2 PK WND 07050/2059 PRESFR FRQ LTGICCCCA SW-NW TSSW-NW MOV NE P0011 SPECI KSBN 242104Z 25049G77KT 3/4SM TSRA BR SQ FEW009 BKN060 OVC110 18/17 A2925 RMK AO2 PK WND 24077/2104 FRQ LTGICCCCA SW-NW TSSW-NW MOV NE P0032 $ METAR KAZO 242053Z 16009KT 6SM BR OVC016 18/17 A2932 RMK AO2 DZE36 SLP926 P0000 60000 T01780172 56041 METAR KYIP 242053Z AUTO 18012KT 10SM SCT029 BKN035 OVC045 21/17 A2943 RMK AO2 SLP986 T02060167 56030 TSNO METAR KDTW 242054Z 14009KT 10SM -RA SCT030 BKN040 OVC075 21/16 A2944 RMK AO2 RAB53 SLP968 P0000 60000 T02060156 56030 ******** Pilot Reports ******** SBN UUA /OV CGT090040/TM 2052/FL090/TP SF34/TB MOD-SEV SBN UA /OV CGT090040/TM 2052/FL090/TP SF34/TB MOD-SEV DTW UA /OV DXO360020/TM 2124/FL040/TP SF34/TB LGT-MOD DFW UA /ov TTT084040/TM 0146/FL100/TP SW4/TB MOD/RM DURC EBND ******** Radar Summaries ******** ILX 2135 AREA 4TSWXX 114/106 145/120 17W AREA 5RW++ 31/120 171/128 155W AREA 7S- 357/117 340/93 18W C2372 AUTO ^HK1 HM11 IK1 IM23 JM22222 KM222332 LM222443 MM223444 NM2 NO4465 OM2 OO4465 PN2446 QN1332 RN232 LOT 2135 LN 4TSWXX 75/91 142/125 25W C2339 CELL TSWX 54/24 D3 AREA 6SW++ 31/116 200/122 221W C2339 AUTO ^HK112222 IK213323 JJ12233442 KJ1 KL2223551 LL2252451 ML22 MO2464 NL1212465 OK12223365 PI111322436 QJ11212322 RL1 RN23 IND 2135 AREA 2TSWXX 17/87 212/102 83W MT 410 6/111 C2137 AREA 4RW++ 359/120 220/116 162W MT 410 6/111 C2137 AUTO ^HK4 IJ245 JJ3466 KH122366 LI2326662 MH12336642 NH1344565 OI44656 PI3466 QI2366 RJ35 IWX 2135 AREA 3TRWXX 335/43 197/117 43W AREA 5RW++ 345/128 210/124 149W MT 370 275/25 AREA 3R- 52/113 83/106 22W AUTO ^HJ2 II143 IP1 JI2443 KH12343 LH11356 MH11336 NH1 NJ33652 OH112366 PI133666 QJ22665 RK255 CLE 2135 PPINE AUTO ******** Terminal Forecasts ******** TAF AMD KORD 241901Z 241918 29025G40KT 3SM TSRA BR SCT005 OVC018 FM2000 30010G20KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 2024 5SM -SHRA OVC020 FM0000 27010KT P6SM SCT060 FM0400 27015G25KT P6SM BKN030 BECMG 0810 26020G30KT FM1400 26028G45KT P6SM BKN030 TAF AMD KGYY 241906Z 241918 18010G20KT 4SM BR OVC008 TEMPO 2021 29030G50KT 1SM +TSRAGR OVC003CB TEMPO 2122 2SM TSRA OVC020CB FM2200 29010G20KT P6SM BKN040 TEMPO 2202 5SM -SHRA OVC020 FM0200 25010KT P6SM SCT060 FM0600 25015G25KT P6SM BKN030 BECMG 1012 26020G30KT FM1500 25028G45KT P6SM BKN030 TAF KDTW 241729Z 241818 18012KT P6SM SCT045 FM2100 16015KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040 TEMPO 2104 VRB35G50KT 1SM +TSRA OVC010CB FM0400 24020G35KT P6SM SCT015 OVC035 TEMPO 0406 3SM -SHRA OVC015 FM0600 25025G40KT P6SM SCT015 OVC035 PROB30 0614 5SM -SHRA OVC015 FM1400 25030G45KT P6SM OVC035 PROB30 1418 5SM -SHRA ******** FD Winds Aloft Forecast ******** DATA BASED ON 241200Z REQUESTED VALID 250000Z FOR USE 2100-0600Z. TEMPS NEG ABV 24000 ALTITUDE FT 3000 6000 9000 12000 18000 24000 30000 34000 39000 5000 JOT 3035 2836+04 2538-03 2346-07 2274-17 2179-28 720032 730737 239146 2835+02 MKG 2227 2234+07 2235+01 2240-04 2256-14 2170-25 209840 720040 239446 2231+05 FWA 2235 2248+10 2256+04 2258-01 2363-12 2268-23 237337 248439 238149 2243+08 ECK 1840 2038+09 2141+03 2246-02 2354-13 2360-25 237240 249442 249247 1938+07 CLE 2037 2343+11 2338+05 2347+00 2355-13 2464-23 247337 248041 247949 2241+09 DEN 2805-03 2931-11 3067-15 2985-25 309541 309851 309761 GLD 3421 3237-06 3050-13 3084-16 7900-25 801141 801751 791160