English is today in a dominant position in Hong Kong (HK). Its popularity reflects the language policy of the post-colonial government and individual language acquisition decisions, responding to changes in the complex ecology of the world's language, economic and political systems. These changes include the emergence of English as a global language, globalisation, competition between major Chinese cities, and the rise of American hegemony. We can regard these changes as drivers that are most likely to shape our future. There are grounds to speculate that these drivers will provide a solid framework for English to maintain its dominant position in the next 45 years. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss the effects of these four drivers on English language learning in HK. In addition to discussing the general language needs of HK, I will also examine the language needs of individual learners. Motivated partly by parental encouragement, but mostly by the quest for empowerment, many HK students understand that they should learn English in the 21st century.
It is hard to dispute the fact that the present-day world status of English has created strong demand for English language proficiency in HK. At present, English is the language of diplomacy, trade, science, broadcasting and international travel (Crystal, 2001: 78-112). There is a widely-held belief that English as a global language is now a 'factor that needs to be taken into account in its language policy by any nation state' (Spolsky, 2004: 91). Since English provides access to cultural and economic capital, it ensures the economic survival of HK (Morrison & Lui, 2000). Like their government, HK students also understand the economic value of a global language. In the educational sector, students realize that 'a person is more likely to be in touch with the latest thinking and research in a subject by learning English than by learning any other language' (Crystal, 2001: 102).
With regard to the future of English, Crystal speculates that the English language has already grown to be independent of any form of social control (Crystal, 2001: 139). In an attempt to predict the future, Graddol uses the engco index to generate projections (2001: 31). The engco model calculates an index of global influence taking into account various economic factors, including Gross Language Product and openness to world trade. It also takes into account the human development index for different countries. Preliminary results indicate that English will retain its dominant position in 2050 (Graddol, 2001: 31). The above prediction strengthens my contention that HK students should learn English in the 21st century.
Globalisation demands the provision of instant telecommunication that eases the formation of commercial relationships both materially and psychologically (Luttwak, 1999: 39). Partly because English is the language of the Internet, and partly because English is a global language, the spread of English is accelerated by the force of globalisation. Spolsky argues that 'globaliosation raises the system level at which the worth of a language is calculated to the top of the hierarchy, where English is the obvious choice (2004: 89). In 1996, the former Chief Executive of HK suggested that HK should develop into a truly cosmopolitan city, serving the mainland, Asia and the world (Tung, 2005: 5). To achieve global competitiveness, HK will need more English-speaking elites to uphold its status as the service center of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) as well as the financial center of Asia. HK students realize that English provides entry into lucrative careers in the financial sectors.
Major coastal cities in China are now modernizing and they are competing with HK to lure foreign investors and China's best students. Since the handover, HK economists have expressed alarm over the rapid economic development in Shanghai. China's entry into the World trade Organisation has reinforced Shanghai's cosmopolitan and outward-looking impulses (Yatsko, 2003: 298). In the PRD, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Foshan are also competing with HK. Regional competition is keen because the development plans of these PRD cities seem similar, with each striving to develop the same industries and promoting similar projects (Enright & Scott, 2005: 31). In order to maintain our prosperity, HK must strengthen its unique advantages. One of our unique advantages is the widespread diffusion of proficiency in English among the local population. English language teaching must be made a priority in HK because our competitors also understand the importance of English in international trade, investment and technology transfer. Our ability to attract overseas and Chinese investment may decrease as English becomes more widely used in other Chinese coastal cities.
Finally, the rise of American hegemony also has an impact on English language learning in HK. According to Crystal, 'a language becomes an international language for one chief reason: the political power of its people- especially their military power' (Crystal, 2001: 7). Although military power may become an irrelevance in the post-cold war period, American economic and cultural power could help maintain the special status of English. American hegemony, together with globalisation, provides an excellent platform for the diffusion of English. Because language learning is associated with power, status and material reward, HK students should learn English for their personal interests and for the modernization of China.

June 2005, Hong Kong
The End

References
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