Introduction to Sportsbetting
What is a Sports bet?
A bet on a sporting event is nothing more than an opinion. When you bet on any sporting event, you are saying that in your opinion this team will win or win in a certain manner. And you are backing that opinion up with money.
There are other things that you can bet on in a sports book. You can bet on the total number of points scored. During the games, you can make side-bets on how many points will be scored in a quarter or half and which side will score them. There are even some games (usually in postseason) that allow some exotic proposition bets such as which team will the first score be a touchdown or field goal, which player will score first, and many others.
Whether you are betting $5 or $500 on a sporting event you are stating that in your opinion, this is what will occur and you are backing that opinion with this much money.
This program is concerned with Point Spread and Game Totals wagers. It is the aim of this program to give you the relevant information to form an accurate opinion on just who will win when you make your Pro Football wager.
What is a Point Spread?
The Point Spread is the amount added to the final score (in the case of Underdog teams) or subtracted (in the case of Favorite teams) from the final score to determine if your bet won or lost.
It is possible for a team you bet on to lose the game, but win the bet if you bet the Underdog. Likewise it’s possible for a team to win the game, and still lose the bet if you bet the Favorite.
For example:
|
Favorite |
Line
or Point Spread |
Underdog |
Total |
|
Packers |
-7 ½ |
Vikings |
46 ½ |
If you were to bet $11 on the Vikings using the Point Spread, you are saying that, in my opinion, the Vikings will win against the Packers, or if they lose they will lose by less than a touchdown and extra point. That way if the score was Packers 35 Vikings 30, you would still win your wager. That’s because 7 ½ points is added to your total (The purpose of the ½ point is to insure that there are no ties. There are no ½ points in Football, so the wager must either win or lose). Even though the Vikings lost 30-35, the Sports Book counts your bet as 37 ½ -35. You would win $10.
Likewise, if you were to bet $11 on the Packers using the Point Spread, you are saying that, in my opinion, the Packers will beat the Vikings by more than a touchdown and an extra point. If the score were Packers 35 Vikings 30, you would lose your wager. That’s because 7 ½ points is subtracted from your total. Even though the Packers won 35-30, the Sports Book counts your bet as 37 ½ -35. You would lose $11.
For you to win that bet on the Packers, they would have had to score at least 38 points. If they had scored 38 points, someone with $11 on the Packers would have won their wager. When you bet on a Favorite, that team needs to win outright and score enough points to cover the Point Spread. A wager on a favorite team is an opinion that they will do exactly that.
Of course there is the additional possibility. The team that is the Underdog might win the game. At this point, the Point Spread is irrelevant. The person who has wagered on the Underdog does not need the extra points. He has won the wager. In the preceding example, if the Vikings had won 35-30 instead of the Packers, the adjusted total using the Point Spread of 42 ½ -30 gives the same result as the result off the game 35-30.
What is the Money Line?
In the preceding example, $11 was wagered to win $10. In case you were wondering what happened to the extra $1, the Sports Book keeps it. This is known as the “vig” or “juice”. It is the money the casino keeps for taking or keeping your bet. It pays you $10 for your winning opinion backed by money because it is taking $11 from someone who had the opposite losing opinion. Only it is not doing so on a one on one basis, it is doing so over the immense volumes of money it trades in. The casino adjusts all lines so that the betting on both sides usually evens out.
When you see a game displayed, an additional set of numbers will often be visible as a bet. For example:
|
Packers |
-170 |
|
Vikings |
+150 |
This is the Money Line. It is a bet on the end score of the game with no adjustments on the final score as with the Point Spread. The only thing determining the outcome of the bet is which team wins. But the interest of the Sports Book is in the amount you have to bet and the amount won.
In the example above, the Favorite is still the Packers. But you would have to bet $17 to win $10 if you were to bet on them using the money line. The good news is that nothing is subtracted from the end score. The bad news is that you have to wager $17 to win $10. Likewise, the Underdog is still the Vikings. If you were to wager $10 on the Vikings, if they won you would win $15. The good news is that you win more money. The bad news is that you can’t add to the end score as you would with the Point Spread.
Sharkey’s Sportsbetting System does not evaluate money lines. Normally, they aren’t combined with the Point Spread. However on rare occasions, the Sportsbook will combine the two to discourage people from betting on one side of a game that is not finding an equal amount of wagers on the other side.
It is usually displayed in a manner similar to this:
|
Packers |
-7 |
EV |
|
Vikings |
+7 |
-130 |
In this example, the Sports Book is receiving too many wagers on the Vikings using the Point Spread. It is trying to encourage people to bet on the Packers. In order for you to bet on the Vikings, the Underdogs who are receiving 7 points added to their score, you have to be willing to pay $13 to get $10. Likewise, if you wanted to bet on Packers, you’d be giving up 7 points off the final score, but you’d be receiving $10 for $10 in the Packers won by more than a touchdown.
It doesn’t happen that often, but it does happen.
What are Game Total bets?
In this example:
|
Favorite |
Line
or Point Spread |
Underdog |
Total |
|
Packers |
-7 ½ |
Vikings |
46 ½ |
The Total of 46 ½ refers to the Game Total or Over/Under bets. It is a wager that the total amount of points both teams score will be either Over 46 ½ points or Under 46 ½ points. It is commonly called taking the Over or taking the Under.
If this was the final score:
|
Packers |
28 |
|
Vikings |
21 |
Both teams scored 49 points total. The player that took the Over would win his wager. The same rules apply with the vig. $11 is wagered to win $10.
If this was the final score:
|
Packers |
17 |
|
Vikings |
21 |
Both teams scored 38 points total. The player that took the Under would win his wager.
Sharkey’s Sportsbetting System does evaluate Game Total bets. There are times during the season where an evaluation of the Defenses shows the level Game Total bets are offered to be out of proportion to where they ought to be. This program helps you to identify them.
What are my real odds?
Here’s how it breaks down counting games where the ½ point made a difference as a tie. Games where the ½ point makes a difference can vary with different Sports Books so often it is recorded as a Tie. Not counting zero Point Spread games (also called Pick’ems) and Super Bowls, these are the numbers for all 5146 NFL games played from 9/4/83 to 11/15/04.
Factoring in the $11-$10 Sports Bet vig (House Edge 4.54%), these are the House percentages:
Bet |
Win |
Lose |
Draw |
House
Edge |
|
Visiting Favorite |
45.44% |
51.54% |
3.02% |
10.23% |
|
Visiting Underdog |
50% |
47.5% |
2.50% |
2.05% |
|
Home Favorite |
47.50% |
50.00% |
2.50% |
6.82% |
|
Home Underdog |
51.54% |
45.44% |
3.02% |
-1.42% |
|
All Favorites |
46.85% |
50.49% |
2.66% |
7.89% |
|
All Underdogs |
50.49% |
46.85% |
2.66% |
0.96% |
|
All Visiting |
48.56% |
48.78% |
2.66% |
4.63% |
|
All Home |
48.78% |
48.56% |
2.66% |
4.22% |
The break down for Game Total bets for those 5198 NFL games are:
|
Overs win |
48.23% |
House Edge: 6.92% |
|
Unders win |
50.13% |
House Edge: 2.92% |
How does Sharkey’s
Sportsbetting System help me?
That chart is a breakdown of all games looking at numbers only without considering any other factors. It treats sports bets as if they were a coin toss or a dice roll. It’s not either of those, it’s an opinion backed up by money. If one were disposed to look at numbers only, then one would bet on nothing but Home Underdogs without any other considerations and never bet on a Visiting Favorite. This objective overview is valuable because it shows the power of favoring Home Underdogs over all other bets. That doesn’t mean it’s always a good idea.
This objective approach treats a Home Underdog that has the #25 Running Defense and #29 Running Offense who may be getting 10 points exactly the same as a Home Underdog getting 6 points but with the #12 Running Offense, #14 Running Defense, and maybe the #10 Passing Defense as the same exact bet.
But these are very different bets. Both are Home Underdogs but the first has a poor Running Game and a poor Running Defense. They are going to be completely dominated by the other team. But the latter has an average Running Defense and a good Running Offense. They may be worth betting on, depending also on the strength if the opposing team.
How do you tell the difference? Sportscasters and Sportswriters often are sources of hype and biased commentary. They have a strong tendency to follow their hearts and often any relevant information they offer is already reflected in the betting line by the time it is offered to the public. Friends may do the same things when discussing which teams to bet on.
If you want to make a truly informed opinion before you put your money down, you need to be able to take your analysis to the next level.
Sharkey’s Sportsbetting System can help you to do exactly that. This program will give you:
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