The main cause of the Seven Years or the Tribulation, which many prefer to call it, was the Gulf War II of 2003. Looking back now, over the last few decades, one can see that the world was truly and bitterly divided over how to deal with the Iraq problem. More to the point, after Gulf War II, the world remained that way. Regardless of world opinion, however, the United States, along with some allies, decided that a war had to be waged against Iraq’s dictator Suddam Hussein.

Other nations of the world, most notably France and Germany, argued differently. This attitude was clearly what the United Nations thought and that other avenues of approach, other than war, should be exhausted before any conflict. In the end, though, the United States, Britain & Australia rejected the pleas of other countries and, most notably, the United Nations.

Thus, come March of 2003, Iraq was attacked by the armed forces of the three allies. Iraq never stood a chance. Although some of its forces held up the invaders, within five weeks it was all over for the Iraqi regime. Significantly, for the Iraqi civilians, most survived. And just as importantly, most of Iraq’s civilian infrastructure survived as well. It did not take long, even with some difficulties, before Iraq was hence remade in the image of a democratic country reflecting that of its liberators. And like the damaged political structure of Iraq had been rebuilt, the physical damage was also soon repaired.

Damage, however, cannot always be measured by mere physical appearances. Much of the time, the physical damage is insignificant. Although to many Iraqis that may have not been the case, to the international community it certainly was. The United States wrongly believed that after Gulf War II was over, things would more or less go back to normal. France might, though be singled out for some attention. In fact it had became a common saying in Washington DC to "Ignore the Russians, forgive the Germans, but punish the French." By the end of 2003, it appeared that this had indeed become official American Government Policy.

Such foreign policy by the Americans ignored one thing: the reaction. Most believed, due to the power of the United States, that no or little retaliatory action could be taken by the French. The French, however, had other ideas. Already a major influence in the European Union, Germany decided not to desert its European ally. They made for an unusual couple, considering their shared history, but in 2004 the world had changed & they changed as a result. With this European marriage, several other nations threw their lot in with the defiant French.

Soon Belgium, Luxembourg & Austria sided with the French, but the big shock for the United States was the change in the Italian & Turkish governments. Both had been pro American in 2003, but repercussions at the ballot box had changed all that. With new pro European governments elected in each country, both now sided with the French-German alliance. Not long afterwards, sensing a change in the political winds, Greece too became lukewarm to American advances and sided with the ‘American  rebellion’.

So by the end of 2004, within eighteen months of Gulf War II, the political face of Western Europe had thus changed. Only Britain and Spain held out as important American allies in Europe. Holland & Denmark had become rather quiet on anything pro American, although officially they never changed their policy position. In a similar fashion, so too did the rest of the Scandinavian countries. Only Portugal, in Western Europe, went along with Britain & Spain.

Eastern Europe, meanwhile, was a mixed bag for both sides. Led by Poland, several Eastern European countries continued to support the United States as they had done during Gulf War II. Only those in the Balkan region remained either hostile or neutral. But these Balkan nations meant little in the overall scheme of things when compared to Russia. She had opposed Gulf War II in 2003 for all sorts of reasons &, come the beginning of 2005, had thrown her lot in with the France-German alliance.

Europe was thus divided, but was still changing. It had become clear to many in Europe that America could no longer lorded it over the world forever. It was no longer the Cold War. The balance in international politics must change argued the Europeans. A few even thought that a clash of some kind, however, seemed inevitable if change was to happen. Most, though, thought a clash was impossible - or so the great majority of Europeans hoped...

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