Labour - working class people who see things through a zero sum game class struggle paradigm based on rigid class stratification in which upward social mobility is not part of the game plan, middle class people who want to pretend to be working class so they can fulfill their own ambitions while pretending to speak on behalf of "the unwashed hordes" who they don't actually ever mix with socially and west of Scotland chip on the shoulder types who see everything in life as one big anti-RC masonic conspiracy and support Labour to advance their tribal interests (ca. 25% of the electorate combined together) Currently Labour is straying far from its roots to appeal to voters in England where there is no viable left wing alternative and it can get away with it. In Scotland the SSP is starting to scoop up some of the traditional Labour base support as it involves a much smaller paradigm shift than jumping to the SNP who have tried but failed to make major inroads amongst this group. This support base is declining over time as it is skewed towards older age cohorts who remember times of much more serious and widespread economic hardship and deprivation than there is today.

SNP - people who believe in more of a national one nation style consensus in the leadership strata but a rank and file membership and core support containing far too many anti-English nutters who blame the English for anything and everything that goes wrong in Scotland and who think everything would magically be transformed overnight if the Union was ended. Whether they actually mean it or would bottle out if there was a chance of it actually happening remains to be seen. Marked penchant for almost pathetic self-parody by wearing kilts and jimmy wigs in built up areas and celebrating even after humiliating defeats whilst in other countries after overcompensating in aftermath of skyhigh misplaced cockiness in Argentina in 78 partially redeemed by the positive desire to at least appear more civilised than yobbo element from larger southern neighbour whilst publically intoxicated (ca. 15% of the electorate) Suspicion is they like to whine rather than take responsibility and would not know what to do with independence if they ever got it but new leader is making the right noises to try to remedy this at least. This group is skewed towards younger age cohorts so the SNP bedrock support base is slowly growing as the generation who saw all the light red blobs on the map on the classroom wall, remembers WWII and times of far greater and more widespread economic hardship departs the scene. This bedrock block will eventually eclipse Labour's numerically.

Conservatives - lower middle class people with a pathological fear of losing their social status and of anyone who lives or has ever lived in a council dwelling or who habitually speaks with a glottal stop. They support the Union as a bulwark against Bolshevism amongst the hygenically challenged schemie hordes. Also see life inwardly through a zero sum game class struggle paradigm while outwardly spouting stuff about enterprise and initiative while maintaining an oligarchical social hierarchy where they get to take over daddy's family business. Play rugger rather than footie as it's sport for hooligans played by the civilised rather than a sport for the civilised played by hooligans (ca. 15% of the electorate) declining over time as the rot set in when national service ended basically so very much skewed to older age cohorts.

Liberal Democrats - sanctimonious and very self-righteous middle class people especially academics and people with public sector jobs who secretly share the fears of the Conservative bedrock support but can't bring themselves to actually vote Tory so they vote for a minor no hope party that never actually really does anything instead to get their desired result without actually voting for it (ca. 5% of the electorate) bedrock support profile static over time but they may lose out to the Greens eventually over the long haul.

So 60% are basically very set in their ways IMO and in reality only the more flexible and pragmatic remaining 40% that is ever really up for grabs on a consistent basis. Over time the portion of that 60% that is SNP backing is rising as attitudes differ between the generations so 20 years from now the SNP are likely to eclipse Labour as the major party based purely on demographic trends if everything else stood still but politicians tend to be impatient so what is the SNP supposed to do if it wants to speed things along? The key IMO is to understand that the 40% pragmatist element was the driving force behind the drive to self-government over the last 30 years as they were appalled by the rightward lurch of the Tories away from the one nation Liberal Unionism that once had majority electoral support in Scotland in the 50's. They wanted a Scottish parliament to make sure nothing like the thatcher years could ever happen again. The myth amongst middle class ideologue ex-Labour types is that traditional "Liberal Unionism" was sectarian based amongst working class people at least but it went a lot deeper than that. It was an urge for more consensus and social harmony rather than the strident ideology of people like Thatcher or Benn. Tory support in Scotland has plummeted as the "One Nation" type pragmatists have deserted them in droves to vote for whoever is most likely to beat them as the Conservatives have become genuinely Tory like Michael Forsyth rather than "Liberal Unionist" like MacMillan in the 50's when we never had it so good etc.

In recent years the argument that appears to have held sway in the SNP is that Labour has the biggest bedrock support so the SNP has to try to grab that bedrock support to replace them as the dominant political force. The fact that Labour has never enjoyed majority support in Scotland and Michael Foot only got 35% of the vote in 1983 is overlooked as the SNP has been in the grip of sanctimonious self-righteous middle class ideological refugees from New Labour and some ancestrally Irish RC tribalists who project their ancestral Irish nationalist tribal grievance politics onto traditionally Presbyerian Scotland in an almost delusional manner that involves extreme historical revisionism (shared with romantic nationalists) to airbrush things like Knox and Melville and the Reformation, the National Covenant of 1638, the Westminster Confession and the Killing Times out of our nation's history so the Jacobite rebellion of 1745 can somehow be portrayed as something it wasn't namely a Scottish national insurrection with broad based popular support. Hence all the fawning over Cardinal Winning despite his social policy positions being well to the right of Ghengis Khan in global RC clerical terms even under the current ultra-traditionlist papacy that has broken with the liberalising trends of Karol Woltjya's 3 predecesors and therefore more out of tune with the Scottish mainstream than even Maggie Thatcher and mucho ranting and raving about how said politician from Finchley "took away ma school milk" despite the fact she was never Scottish secretary when it happened.

I think this was flawed in a big way and the nosedive in support during the last Scottish election reflected the fact that elections are won amongst the pragmatic 40% not amongst the 60% hard core and that the SNP's ideological stridency over the "Penny for Scotland" and anti-NATO Kosovo outburst was off-putting to pragmatic "Middle Scotland" and a leftward ideological lurch drives away more floating voters than it can ever attract from another party's ideological bedrock. Where should the SNP focus its energies? The key to winning IMO is in winning over as many of the pragmatists as possible by being the sound middle of the road one nation consensus governance alternative to the post-1980 Westminster ideological rightward by breaking the pattern of the defensive anyone but the Tory tactical voting that has dominated Scottish politics over the last 15 years by encouraging people accross all of Scotland to start making a more positive based selection again. This could be done in a Westminster context by pointing out "Blair/Hague what's the difference? We could do a lot better eventually with national government only in Edinburgh anyway, they are both much the same and in the meantime a strong SNP voice to potentially hold the balance of power at Westminster would be best for Scotland" in three sorts of constituencies.

First the central belt ex-Tory seat now held by Labour by getting the pragmatists to switch from Labour to the SNP. Prime examples would be West Renfrewshire:-

or Cunningham North:-

Second would be the Liberal Democrat rural seats and repeat what happened with Russell Johnston's old Inverness seat by saying the Lib Dems are just Labour's poodles anyway so why not vote for a genuine alternative this time rather than a tactical vote parking party that never actually really does anything by again simply getting the pragmatists to switch from lib dem to the SNP. Prime examples would be Argyll and Bute:-

and Gordon:-

Thirdly the smaller town central belt seats that have always tended to be Labour vs SNP since 1974 in local council terms but where voters swing to Labour in a general election context influenced by the BBC/ITN media coverage. Prime examples are the Alloa centred Ochil seat:-

and the Linlithgow seat in West Lothian:-

The very last places with the possible exception of Orkney and Shetland that the SNP should be focusing its attentions and tailoring its message to is places like Glasgow Springburn:-

or Coatbridge and Chryston:-

as that is where Labour's 25% bedrock is geographically concentrated. Support will rise in places like this over time and that's important under the regional list d'Hondt system but FPTP victories are still the key to doing well at both the Westminster and the only partially proprtional Holyrood list system elections so the focus and message tailoring has to be aimed elsewhere where FPTP victory is possible more easily.

It is time to recreate the old "Liberal Unionist" "One Nation" consensus politics across social class boundaries coalition under the banner of moderate civic national politics within the context of the EU this time rather than the old British imperial context and with more appeal in these much more secular times to people from all ancestral religious backrounds. The SNP should stop trying to be a clone of all that is and was socially divisive, self-serving, economically destructive and ultimately self-defeating about Old Labour politics in Scotland IMO.

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