The Lane Ranger: Studies: Crash risk high for new drivers
Joey Ledford - Staff
Sunday, March 18, 2001

Two new studies show even more clearly that teen drivers pose the greatest hazard to themselves and others during the first weeks and months they drive unsupervised.

Anne McCartt, a senior associate for the Connecticut-based Preusser Research Group, a consulting firm that focuses on traffic safety, said a long-term study of 1,000 Northeastern teens found that they were substantially more likely to be in a crash or get a ticket the first month they held their license.

When looked at through the prism of miles driven, the study found that the first 500 miles of unsupervised driving posed the greatest threat of a crash or a citation.

"Our study reinforces more than any other study I've seen the very high risk drivers face when they first get their license and they begin to drive by themselves," said McCartt.

A second study conducted in Nova Scotia confirmed that when supervision ends, crashes begin. By the time teens have been driving unsupervised for six months, their crash rates are 40 percent lower than when they first got their licenses.

Supervised teen drivers --- those with learner's permits required to be accompanied by parents or other adults --- rarely crash, said Dan Mayhew of Canada's Traffic Injury Research Foundation, who wrote the Nova Scotia study.

Mayhew said the study shows that Nova Scotia's new graduated license system, which requires supervised driving with a learner's permit, then a late-night curfew once the license is granted, is working.

The studies make a strong case for tougher nighttime curfews, and passenger limitations during the period immediately after licensure, both of which were strengthened in a bill passed by the Georgia Senate, but severely watered down in the House version of the same measure. Other studies have shown that the chances of teens crashing rise dramatically when friends are riding with them.

"What we needed to know was whether (our) program was saving lives and reducing injuries," said Mayhew. "Our recent investigation provides conclusive evidence that the program is effective."

Teen crashes in the Canadian province decreased by 37 percent during the first three years of graduated licensing. Officials estimate that there were about 150 fewer serious-injury or fatal crashes involving 16-year-old drivers.

McCartt's study left no doubt that the first month after a teen gets a license is the worst.

"The likelihood of getting a ticket the first month after licensure was about triple what it was the second month," she said. "The risk during that first month was about double what it was on average over the first year."

In general, males, however, were much more likely to crash and have tickets than females, she said.

The granting of the license typically caused a huge spike in the number of miles teens were driving, said McCartt.

A separate study conducted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that strict nighttime curfews are very effective in preventing crashes.

In North Carolina, where 16-year-olds cannot drive without supervision between 9 p.m. and 5 a.m., for a period of six months, nighttime crashes declined 47 percent after the curfew started.

A survey conducted by the North Carolina Highway Safety Research Center dispels the theory widely held in the Georgia House that parents disapprove of a tough nighttime curfew. According to the survey, 96 percent of the parents in rural and urban areas alike approve of the graduated license system that includes the curfew provision.

"Every state that has a nighttime driving restriction allows you to drive by yourself if you are going to and from work," said Allan Williams, chief scientist at the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. "It's not a blanket curfew."

But exemptions for school activities can be problems, he said.

"That's a tricky one because a lot of that driving is recreational in nature and is a higher risk than driving yourself to and from work," he said.

Williams disputed contentions that a higher driving age is justified in large metro areas. Gov. Roy Barnes has revived his effort to raise the driving age to 17 in the five major metro Atlanta counties.

"The death rates in any state are higher in rural areas, largely because of higher speeds," he said. "There's a real argument from a safety standpoint to not just have a higher licensing age in the urban areas."

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