Update to Warren Elementary Transfer Study

Effects of Warren Elementary and Crawford Elementary Closings

on ISTEP+ Passing Rates in Affected Schools

December 17, 2003

 

The original study, published in February, 2002, contained ISTEP+ data for the first two years after Warren was closed.  These data were analyzed in several ways in the study.  All analyses indicated that the passing rate of students decreased after the closing. 

 

Figure 1 below updates one of the methods used in the original study to include ISTEP+ results from testing in September, 2002 and September, 2003.  These were the third and fourth year after the Warren closing.  The figure contains data for the three years prior to the closing and four years following it. 

 

 

Figure 1.  ISTEP+ Performance Comparison for Warren Closing

 

The solid line on the graph represents the percentage of students passing ISTEP+ at the four schools affected by the closing.  (For this analysis, passing rate was defined as the percentage of students who passed both portions of the test.)  For 1999 and prior years, data from Warren, Meadows, Lost Creek, and Sugar Grove are combined.  For 2000 and subsequent years, data from Meadows, Lost Creek, and Sugar Grove are combined.  (After the closing, students living in the former Warren attendance area were bused to either Meadows or Lost Creek, a few students formerly attending Meadows were transferred to Lost Creek, and the Gifted/Talented program at Meadows was moved to Sugar Grove.)

 

The dashed line on the graph represents the performance of all the remaining elementary schools in Vigo County.

 

Percentages were normalized to the state average each year.  For example, in 1998, students at the four schools (Warren, Meadows, Lost Creek, and Sugar Grove) had an ISTEP+ passing rate that was about five percent above state average, while students at the remaining Vigo County Schools had a passing rate that was about four percent below state average.

 

The recent results show a continuation of the trend seen in the original report.  In the three years prior to the closing, students at the affected schools had a passing rate that varied from five percent to nine percent above the other county elementary schools.  In these years, students at the affected schools exceeded the state average passing rate by two to five percent.

 

In the four years following the closing, students at the affected schools have trailed the state average passing rate each year.  Furthermore, the trend has been for the difference to increase nearly every year, from 0.2 percent below state average in 2000 to 6.5 percent below state average in 2003.

 

Just as compelling is the comparison to the other elementary schools in Vigo County.  During the four years when the schools affected by the closing were trending substantially downward, the remaining schools were moving strongly upward.  They have exceeded the state average passing rate in the last three years.

 

The schools affected by the closing have lost ground to the remaining schools nearly every year since the closing.  In 2002, they trailed by 9.0 percent and in 2003 by 7.4 percent.  (Note that there was a testing error in 2003 at Hoosier Prairie Elementary, one of the other county schools.  As a result, an undetermined number of students there did not pass the mathematics portion of ISTEP.  So the data likely understate the gap between the Warren closing affected students and the other county elementary students.)

 

One of the major points of the original study was that these results were not unique to Warren Elementary or Vigo County.  They had been observed by educational researchers in a number of studies in various locations.  The original study was written to provide evidence that the proposed closing of Crawford Elementary in 2002 would be detrimental to the education of the affected students.

 

These data were not sufficiently persuasive to the school board and the Crawford closing occurred as planned.  Students were transferred to Farrington Grove, Sugar Grove, Ouabache, and Davis Park elementaries beginning in Fall, 2002.  Figure 2 below shows data in a similar format as Figure 1, but applied to the Crawford closing.  For 2001 and prior years, data from Crawford, Farrington Grove, Sugar Grove, Ouabache, and Davis Park are combined.  For 2002 and subsequent years, data from Farrington Grove, Sugar Grove, Ouabache, and Davis Park are combined.

 

 

 

Figure 2.  ISTEP+ Performance Comparison for Crawford Closing

 

The results are very similar to those seen in the Warren closing.  In the five years prior to the closing, the affected schools trailed the other county schools by two to eight percent, with an average six percent gap.  In the first year after closing, the gap increased to 11.9 percent and in the second year, it increased again to 14.5 percent.  The affected schools had always trailed the state average, but by the second year after closing, they trailed it by twelve percent, a very large gap considering the sample consisted of 261 students at four schools.

 

Figure 3 shows combined data for all the schools affected by either or both of the closings.  These were Crawford, Davis Park, Farrington Grove, Lost Creek, Meadows, Ouabache, Sugar Grove, and Warren.  The same trends are apparent in this graph.

 

In conclusion, consider the following words spoken by Georgia Mell, one of the co-authors of the original study, as she concluded a statement during the public comment at the Vigo County School Board meeting of February 25, 2002: “I am asking this board to reconsider its decision to close Crawford before more children lose the opportunity to receive their education in the environment that best suits their needs.”

 

Figure 3.  ISTEP+ Performance Comparison for Warren and Crawford Closings