B1THE - An overcrowded world? – Philip Sarre and John Blunden - Sustainable resources? – Chapter 4

Samengevat door Willem de Joode

Are current lifestyles sustainable?

A natural resource is a natural product which is deemed by humans to be useful. A resourses usefulness is strongly dependent on time and place. Conditions that must be met are:

1.      the existence of the natural material must be recognised

2.      the existence of the technology to detect and use the resource

3.      the cost must be competitive with alternative technologies

4.      the political climate must be favourable for exploiting the resource

Reserves are the supplies of materials or energy  which are exploitable in political, economic and technical terms in current conditions.

Finite stocks or non-renewable resources like ores and petroleum

Flows or renewable resources like animals, water and  latex

No definite distinction, more like a continuum.

Assess the sustainability of current and foreseeable levels of resource use and whether to move from stock to flow resources is needed to improve this.

Is there a future for industrial minerals? Therefore we must look at estimates of the likely availability of supplies of those finite resources, and consider them against forecasts of consumption. Based on the knowledge that the western world uses 75 % of all mineral resources, though it has only 15% of its population. Post war reconstruction of Europe made the demand for industrial minerals soar for a brief period. Developing countries have been growing fast in their mineral usage, but the absolute gains remain small. The strong growth of demand for industrial metals topped off after the 1974 energy crisis, in the west, though growth still occurs in the developing world. South-east Asia claimed its place. Demand for zinc and lead decreased due to substitution with plastics, as well as environmental considerations. In 1990 the western world used 66% of all industrial resources.

Are there future constraints? The Materials Policy Commission in 1952 and the Club of Rome in 1972 inaccurately forecasted a complete depletion of all reserves by the mid twenty-first century. Why were these forecasts so widely off the mark?

Minerals and the technological fix, innovations in exploration. Using digital sensors, imaging systems and stereo cameras, the reserves grew vastly. The discovery of Manganese modules, on the floor of ocean basins, rich in minerals adds to this.

The role of recycling will become greater as it has environmental advantages as well as costs advantages, since ores become more scarce. The industrial nations reuse 30 percent of materials previously used in consumer goods, industrial plants, or wastes from manufacture. Nearly all mercury is recycled. Advances are also made in steel recycling, where the biggest problem is creating pure steel from a variety of alloys. Recycling also reduces the demand for energy.

Substituting new materials. Metals are finite recourses, and can be substituted by another metal or an entirely different material, for example plastics and ceramics in the automotive and aerospace industries, with notable advances in strength, weight and costs. Still, plastics are difficult to recycle and are oil derivatives. Substitution also occurs as a by-product of technological change.

Governments can conserve stock resources and reduce damage to the environment, through levying taxes on the consumption of newly won materials. 1. The more percentage of the product is recycled, the lower the tax. 2. Inclusion of a recycle charge in the selling price, which is to be refunded at the end of the items life span. 3. Stop subsidising mining. Governments can also conserve traditional energy sources by 1. Taxing energy bills. 2. Legislative action, for example upping insulation standards and neighbourhood heating systems. 3. Stimulate energy efficient appliances. 4. Promote energy efficient lifestyles.

A future for fossil energy: Sea-bed mining, recycling and the substitution of new materials such as ceramics could all lead to diminution in the physical impacts caused by traditional mining on the landscape. Energy is not recyclable, and fundamental for industrial advance and for raising living standards. 1990 – 50 years for oil and gas, and 300 years for coal, now things haven’t changed much as new reserves have kept up with depleting of them. Nuclear energy is not an option as uranium ore mines are depleted, and secondly safety is not guaranteed. Therefore, on the long term, greater efficiency in terms of energy consumption combined with the use of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and water power, and that to be derived from biomass and geothermal sources.

Renewable energy – an alternative to fossil fuels? Sustainable energy sources, renewable energy sources have been investigated and utilised more and more since the energy  crises of 1974, and provide 2% of the need in 1994. Radiation from the sun is the basis of all sorts of energy. This radiation can be harnessed directly through photo-voltaic cells or via heating water, and then generating electricity. A third way is via producing energy crops, which will have to compete with food crops. A fourth way is hydroelectricity, with a possible capacity around 20% of current demand. Fifth is wind energy, which drawbacks are pollution of the landscape and their need for space. Sixth is wave power, which is technologically at the experimental stage. Seventh is tidal energy, where the differential in height is the key factor. Eight is geothermal energy, won by pumping water down, deriving electricity from the heated water. These alternatives are spatially variable and sometimes environmentally contentious.

Sustainable energy policies. If all of these renewable energy recourses represent feasible opportunities, what then are the constraints on their use, environmental considerations apart? They are expensive. But if environmental costs would be added to the price of oil, renewable could be competitive. Direct subsidisation in the short term is undoubtedly important in stimulating these alternative energy supplies. But as the programme gather momentum, notable deductions in cost will be achieved as the result of technological improvements, which will be accompanied by increases in costs of fossil fuels, as their availability begins to decline. By 2030 prices will be competitive.

Alternative scenarios for renewables Transfer to renewable recourses is desirable and entirely feasible. Economic growth prospects in either developing or  industrial countries would be seriously affected by the use of renewable energy fuels. Renewables could provide 20%to 30% of the total energy needs by 2020. But the emergence of the Russian reserves on the world market lower these expectations. Also there is the argument that the developing nations trying to achieve rapid growth, might see things from a different angle as the developed countries, trying to meet pollution targets, , and simply opt for the cheapest form of energy, to stimulate their development. Energy growth will occur in the 80 percent of the world that is poor.

Fresh water as a renewable resource. Global abundance? Fresh water is a renewable because it is continually recreated through the water cycle. The supply of freshwater is poorly related to the demand. Three issues make water to the resource issue of the next century: 1. The availability of fresh water in relation to the present levels of utilisation. 2. Water quality. 3. Population growth.

Regional disparities in availability and use. Rainfall does not always occur where it is needed. Desalinating water is up to 10 times as expensive as fresh water from conventional sources. In regions where there is not enough water at the appropriate time, up to 75% of the worlds fresh water resources are used for irrigation, irrigation which is so inefficient it uses 3 times as much water as necessary. Industry needs vast quantities of water too, one tonne of paper  needs 27000 litres of water tot be manufactured. The USA has the greatest per capita consumption of water. In 20 years the USA will be totally dependant on flow water resources, as all underground water reservoirs will have been depleted.

Industry and the quality of water. Discharged polluted water, contaminates the surrounding water, thus enlarging its effect. 1. The breakdown of the organic components of the polluted water consumes all the oxygen present, thus killing all. 2. Chemicals kill plants through their toxic effects. In the USA water standards fall short of their legal objectives due to lack of funding. Rarely do industries recycle  or purify their process waters, the cost is to great. Also in Europe targets have not been acquired.

Agricultural and domestic impacts: contamination of water supplies by agricultural chemicals such as fertilisers. In Europe 50% of all nitrates are lost by runoff from the land. In Colombia, Malaysia and Tanzania there are rivers that contain fish so toxic the cannot be eaten. Demand for fresh water is rising, linked as it is with population growth and the spread of agriculture. The greatest increase in demand comes from Asia.

Both water resources and demand should be managed.

Fresh water as a source of conflict. Fresh water resource development – a contested domain. Things that might be desirable for a nation might run counter to interests of local people. Most big projects that involve the above mentioned conflict, cant be realised without the support from the world bank. Fresh water management – sharing the resource. Natural physiographic regions are often not fully contained within national boundaries. In extreme cases of the problem of the shared resource very little of the surface water originates in a states own territory, for Hungary the figure is only 4%.Often activities in countries upstream affect the possibilities of water utilisation by countries downstream.

Shared waters – international conflict and conflict resolution. The semi-arid and arid countries of the middle east are exemplary. Against a background of rising populations, food security and self-reliance are certainly seen as key national economic goals, in spite of tremendous drain  such policies place on limited water budgets. Since nearly half the worlds population live in more then 200 countries that share rivers or lakes with their neighbours, political tensions are likely to grow over control of water supplies in many other parts of the world. However, not all nations which share access to such water resources are in a state of tension with their neighbours regarding their use. This is so in Europe and North America, two thirds of all agreements regard to this area.

Fresh water management – is there a global crisis? Fresh initiatives over the use of water will be needed, such as the introduction of sprinkler or drip systems. Nations who permit irrigation for social, economic or security purposes may need to think again. Apart from closely watching the efficiency and necessity of irrigation, the demand for water from industry and the domestic context, should also undergo an analysis for efficient use. Similarly the problems of water pollution must be addressed. By 2020 there will be 66 nations and 3 billion people (20 and 300 million now) who will face inadequate water resources.

Conclusion. Improved exploration, product substitution and recycling can overcome the forecasted limits to growth. Fossil fuels will be slowly replaced by renewable power sources. Water will cause more problems in the political and economic spectrum, and the only remedy seems to be less profligate lifestyles.

Less developed countries will be obliged to use finite and polluting fossil fuels by the cost advantages over renewables. Here again, uneven development enters as a barrier to the adoption of sustainable technologies. Geographical differences and inequalities may affect resources use in large parts of the world in such a way as to reduce overall sustainability.