The biggest challenge is having each service was using a slightly different method for computing the rotisserie or draft values. Finding one common denominator that combined all of these categories would allow me to compare the different player projection services in an effective manner. The best way to normalize the results was to compute a value for each player based on a uniform criterion. I ranked each of the category projections uniformly on a scale of 1-10, and use the sliding scale method to compute the value. Once converted to sliding scale, it was much easier to determine the value for a given player. Once I computed the services' projected values using the sliding scale, my next step was to compare these with the actual year-end results. I wanted to use some methodical statistical approach to accomplish it.

There are 2 sets of projections that I needed to compare. The batter�s projections and those of the pitchers.

Ok let's cut to the chase: Who receives receives the Bronzed fan finger of 2004? And the service with the best projections in 2004 <add drum roll please> was Fantistics (Insiderbaseball.com). The projections for their batters were impeccable in 2004, and they were clear winners in that area outpacing their nearest competitor by a wide margin .649 to .626. Baseball Notebook (baseballnotebook.com) was the service that produced the .626, which was a very respectable correlation as well.

Here are the correlation results, in order, for the batting projections in the 2004 season:

1. Fantistics - .649
2. Baseball Notebook - .626
3. DraftHelp - .620
4. Roto Guys - .608
5. Lindy�s - .605
6. RotoTimes - .596
7. Baseball HQ  - .574
8. The Sporting News - .574

Here�s the Breakdown of the most popular batting categories based on their correlation to the actual year end results:

At Bats: Fantistics was the clear winner with ABs, these guys update their projections every day during the preseason and in the end they were right on the mark for many of the questionable playing time situations�Draft Help did a very nice job as well for the less than defined playing roles.

Home Runs: Fantistics edged out Baseball Notebook by 2/100 of a percentage. Fantistics was dead on with Jeremy Burntiz (36), and Carlos Lee (31), and Shawn Green (28), while Baseball Notebook was on with Chipper Jones (30), Richard Hidalgo (25), and Khalil Greene (15).

Runs Batted In: Fantistics edged Baseball Notebook again. Some of the less obvious forecasts was the Durazo RBI projection at 88 and the Carlos Pena projection at 84. For Baseball Notebook, they scored on the downturn in Wilkerson�s (67) and Reggie Sander�s RBI total (67). Kudos to Baseball HQ for almost nailing the downturn in Alex Rodriguez RBI total (109 projection � 106 actual).

Runs Scored: once again the Fantistics projections were the most in line with the actuals. Kudos to their Bobby Crosby runs projection (68 vs 70 actual) and Khalil Greene (65 vs 67) Draft Help came in with a solid call on Bill Mueller�s downturn season (75 runs) as well as that of David Roberts (64). The Sporting News made a solid call on relatively unknown D�Angelo Jimenez (76 runs).

Stolen Bases: The Sporting News did extremely well here, coming in close on Coco Crisp (18 vs 20 actual) and spotting the downturn in Luis Castillo�s legs ( 25 vs 21 actual). Lindy�s was dead on with Torri Hunter�s upswing (21) and the relatively unknown Brian Roberts (29).

Batting Average: Low and behold a magazine (Lindy's) who didn't offer updated projections won the batting average crown! Their BA projections on players like Torii Hunter, Jermaine Dye, and Rocco Baldelli were impressive.

<Excel Spreadsheet>

On the Pitching shoreline there were lots of mixed results. In what can only be described as "moderately correlated projections to actual results". It's a long standing ideology that forecasting individual pitching results is a akin to placing money on the roulette wheel. However this does not mean that the is no correlation between the forecasters results and the year end results.

In our sampling we took the top 150 pitchers of 2004. Below are the results based on the year end valuations in comparison to the normalized preseason projections of each of the services:

1. Fantistics                         .392
2. Baseball Notebook         .389
3. Draft Help                       .384
4. Lindy�s                            .366
5. Roto Times                     .365
6. Baseball HQ                   .338
7. The Sporting News         .315

Obviously the pitching results are not as strongly associated as the Batting projections, but that is be expected. The probable culprit: Pitchers tend to get injured and are generally more inconsistent than their counterparts.

Overall on the pitching front, the three services that stood out were Fantistics, Baseball Notebook, and Draft Help. Their numbers were almost interchangeable among the pitching projections. Oddly enough, the same 3 services were placed in the same order with the batting projections.

I've personally used Fantistics, Baseball HQ, and Baseball Notebook, so I can attest to the level of detail and sophistication that these services offer. Fantisitcs offers a level of products that are unmatched in scope. Their ability to customize the player dollar values to specific league settings are a big plus and the daily preseason updates by prognosticator Anthony Perri are an interesting read. Baseball Notebook's Dave Luciani does an amazing job with his player insight, during the preseason. Luciani's articles are also a true read for fantasy fans. Ron Shandler's group (Baseball HQ) is a professional outfit as well.  He didn't have a great forecasting year in 2004, but he's been do fantasy longer than any service and his site is well respected.

In summation, remember to honor thy game! Baseball is a team sport that teaches life lessons.  If you have young children, it behooves us to teach them the game. If you have a wife, promise/give her your fantasy league winnings, as it sure makes watching the game much more enjoyable.

-David

Would like to help RotoDaddy serve other fantasy fans: Have you written an interesting article? Pass it along to me and we'll get it posted!