SCIENCE EDUCATION STANDARD FOR
DETERMINING THE PROBABILITY OF A NATURAL HUMAN EVOLUTION
(October 2005)
REASONS FOR TEACHING SUBJECT
o Investigates total human evolution, not just biological evolution but also the evolution that precedes it. The subject cannot be adequately covered by considering just biological evolution.
o Explores human evolution in a comprehensive systematic way using accepted standards for scientific inquiry. Does not start by simply assuming that humanity evolved by a totally natural process.
o Rather than using generalized arguments, employs a quantitative approach to draw conclusions.
o Can help defuse student defiance upon hearing the word “evolution.”
o Arouses student interest in science by incorporating a broad range of exciting topics.
REFERENCES FOR SCIENTIFIC PROCEDURE
Darwinism: An Incomplete Theory of Human Evolution and Computing the Probability of an Isolated Human Existence, papers published on the website searchforexistence.com.
Search for Existence by Ron Minarik
SUGGESTED AREA OF STUDY: Life Sciences (Note, however, that the subject includes other areas of science.)
SUGGESTED GRADE LEVELS: 10th or higher (By changing the depth of instruction the subject can be taught at more than one grade level, including earlier grades.)
INSTRUCTION LENGTH: By eliminating much of the detailed background and analysis, and presenting only the procedure for investigating the subject, the instruction can be as short as 1-2 hours. This may be desired for an early year in the curriculum. But the subject can also be expanded to any level of depth by including detailed topics in physics, biology and math.
BENCHMARK AND INDICATORS FOR INVESTIGATING A NATURAL HUMAN EVOLUTION
Benchmark: Using the process of Scientific Inquiry establish a quantitative criteria for determining if human evolution was a natural process. Use this criteria for drawing conclusions.
Grade Level Indicators: (Some clarification is included. Additional material can be found in the references cited above and from the author.)
Indicator 1. Understand that processes can be artificial or natural, that is, take place with or without intelligence being involved.
Teaching Notes: Examples of a natural process are soil erosion, germination and growth of a tree, the production of various simple and complex molecules and bacteria "developing" an immunity to antibiotics through natural selection. Examples of processes that occur naturally but can also take place with intelligence being involved are soil erosion due to cutting forests, growing trees by planting and nourishing them, the production of molecules in the laboratory with help from human intelligence, and artificial selection of immune bacteria for drug research. The student should also see how it might be difficult to determine a process was totally natural (or not totally natural) by merely observing the end result . (E.g., eroded soil, a tree, many types of molecules, immune bacteria)
Indicator 2. After reviewing how observations and subsequent analysis leads to accepted theory, understand that physical limitations might prevent us from ever making observations needed to substantiate a natural (or not totally natural) human evolution. In particular, physical limitations preclude observations of regions that may (or may not) exist outside our universe.
Teaching Note: Physical limitations include the finite speed of light and the curvature of space.
Indicator 3. [Optional depending upon prior instruction in Scientific Inquiry.] Understand the probabilistic nature of science with respect to making deductions from observations.
Teaching Note: Suppose, based on credible evidence and analysis, there is a very low probability that a given process (e.g., a totally natural sprouting of trees) could produce an observed phenomenon (e.g., 100 trees arranged in a near-perfect grid of 10 x 10 horizontal and vertical rows). Even if the probability is not identical to zero we would likely deduce that the process in question did not occur and that the phenomenon was caused by another process. (For example, the sprouting of a grid of trees was not due to nature alone but instead involved intelligence.)
Other examples from our macroscopic world can be used to calculate the probability for the observation of a phenomenon and a subsequent deduction.
Indicator 4. Identify the main steps in total human evolution, from the birth of the universe to the arrival of human intelligence, and assess the theoretical and experimental rationale (where it exists) for the occurrence of these steps.
Indicator 5. Understand how some evolution steps (and thus total evolution) might have an insignificant probability of occurring by natural means in just a single universe.
Teaching Notes:
(a) Total evolution steps include formation of the precise physical laws and constants needed to produce our natural world, the production of an initial form of life from a random collection of colliding atoms, and the evolution of this life (along with the necessary environment) to human-level intelligence. The latter two steps must occur within the lifetime of our universe.
(b) There is an extremely low probability for randomly evolving the precise physical laws (inverse square laws for gravity and electromagnetism, relative strengths among the four fundamental forces, etc.) that are needed to evolve our natural world. This includes the extremely small chance of randomly evolving the innumerable number of physical constants (e.g. nuclear energy levels in atomic nuclei) that are needed. The slightest change in just one law or physical constant could preclude our evolution.
(c) A natural formation of life from a random collision of atoms has never been demonstrated, either by experiment or by computer simulation. Conversely, a first-cut statistical calculation gives an insignificant probability of randomly evolving the first form of life in a universe such as ours during its lifetime.
(d) Regarding subsequent bio-evolution, various steps may have been extremely difficult to evolve by natural means (e.g., photosynthesis). Also, the natural evolution of many organic mechanisms cannot be completely explained, much less how the mechanisms evolved in the first place.
Indicator 6. Understand that even if we can show there is an insignificant probability of naturally evolving humanity in only a single universe of our type, we still cannot claim that humanity did not evolve by totally natural means.
Teaching Notes: (a) Using moderately advanced math or a simple illustration (i.e., an infinite number of monkeys at an infinite number of typewriters, randomly typing away until one of them produces the great books of literature), show that the existence of enough universes with a suitable set of physical laws can provide a sufficient number of chances for human intelligence to eventually evolve in some universe by natural means. And we could reside in that universe. (Moderately advanced math could also be used to show a natural human evolution would be a mathematical certainty--i.e., as the number of universes becomes indefinitely large, the probability of a natural human evolution approaches unity.)
(b) Another analogy: If we find an orchard with 100 trees arranged in a near-perfect grid of 10 x 10 we would likely conclude that the trees were planted by intelligence. However, if we were able to look at an unlimited number of orchards (corresponding to an unlimited number of universes) the probability would approach unity that the orchard of this type could grow naturally.
(c) Darwinism states that beneficial mutations to a species occur relatively slowly, which is contrary to some observations. However, Darwinism has major components that occur at random, specifically random mutations (along with random environmental interactions) that ultimately lead to natural selection. If there are enough attempts to obtain the outcome of a process that involves random components then some steps (e.g., some beneficial mutations) could occur relatively quickly. Given enough natural evolutionary processes in multiple universes, some processes will sporadically incur brief periods of rapid progress toward the final result. This could explain why biological evolution, presumed to be a slow process, has apparently experienced some quick spurts.
(d) While teaching this topic the issue may arise that our universe is “special,” that it is the only universe that counts when determining the number of places life could evolve. Explain why this is not scientific. Start by saying that in the math calculation to disprove a totally natural evolution it is not essential to know the exact spot (say to the nearest millimeter) where life evolved on earth. Likewise, it is not important to know the geographical area where life evolved, where earth is located in our galaxy, or where our galaxy is located in relation to other galaxies. Thus, just like we cannot be sure precisely where life evolved, we cannot be sure in which universe our planet actually resides. Wherever it resides we can still call it “Earth.” Also mention theories that, in an attempt to explain cosmological observations, cite the possibility of many (perhaps an infinite number of) universes being initially created. Moreover, there is the presently unverifiable situation that our own universe is being continually recycled through alternate big bangs and big crunches, where life keeps obtaining more chances to evolve naturally.
(e) Regarding the prospect of determining the number of universes: Due to physical limitations (e.g., the curvature of space, the speed of light, the gravity quantum barrier) it is unlikely we will ever know for sure if other universes exist, or if enough of them could continually evolve with various physical laws and constants until a suitable universe is formed. This is a scientific representation of the agnostic dilemma, where science cannot conclude or disprove that humans evolved by totally natural means.
(f) The agnostic dilemma is purely scientific. It does not mean that spiritual beliefs are incorrect or that the basis of natural evolution is invalid.
Indicator 8. [Optional] Understand that even if we knew there were an unlimited number of universes and thus a high probability of naturally evolving humanity, we still may not be able to claim that humanity and other organisms evolved by totally natural means. We could still be left with the agnostic dilemma.
Teaching Note: Recall Indicator #1, where it was noted that various end results can be reached through both natural and artificial processes, and that it sometimes difficult determining a process was totally natural by merely observing the end result.
Indicator 9. [Optional] Understand we may be able to avoid the agnostic dilemma by searching for phenomena that are independent of human evolution.
Teaching Note: Refer to
Copyright © 2005 by Ron Minarik