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Business prof: Apple has year or two before Nokia, Microsoft, RIM, LG or Samsung catch iPhone
Friday, August 22, 2008 - 09:59 AM EDT
Nokia has failed "to have much of an impact in North America, either with the tech industry or with consumers. Lord knows that it’s trying, by moving its CTO to Palo Alto. It’s also clear that Nokia as the most aggressive US university outreach program of any mobile phone company, with multi-man year efforts at Stanford, UCLA and MIT. But its handset share and mindshare are almost off the radar," Joel West, associate professor of Innovation & Entrepreneurship at the Department of Organization and Management in the College of Business at San José State University, writes for Seeking Alpha.
"Nokia (and with it Symbian) so far has lost in the US market, including the high-end smartphone market that they dominate in the global market," West writes. "The iPhone and Blackberry are winners and Nokia is an also-ran. The question that the Europeans (and Japanese and Koreans) are asking is: so what?"
"The 'so what' is that before the iPhone, efforts to kickstart the mobile Internet have largely failed, at least in the developed countries. Operators and manufacturers come up with all sorts of technologies and businesses but they’re not getting adopted," West writes. "The iPhone is getting used and is getting the mobile Internet adopted. nokia handphone accessories It’s also winning the hearts and minds of third party software and services — both for the cool factor, but also because it has users that will try these technologies. I know both geeks and housewives that swear by it, just as the Mac is gaining share on Windows in the desktop."
"Most marketing problems have a basis in fact. Successful companies usually assume that marketing problems are because the market isn’t getting their message (NB: Microsoft, Intel) — but often it’s because they’re not listening nokia tune im in a rave to the market," West writes. "Nokia (and its soon-to-be subsidiary Symbian) can continue to shoot at the messenger, or they can respond to the iPhone challenge by making their products easier to use and more compelling."
West writes, "My hunch is that Apple has at least another year or two before Nokia gets its software act together. (And if Nokia doesn’t, then Microsoft, RIM, LG or Samsung will.) So, as when it faced Windows 95, Apple better have something up its sleeve to further advance innovations when competitors catch up to its first mobile phone act."
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: "My hunch is that Apple unlocking nokia sim card has at least another year or two before (insert company name) gets its software act together. And if (insert company name here) doesn’t, then Company A, B, C or D will."
That's exactly what they said several years ago about iPod. Didn't happen. It tuns out that Apple had many, many "somethings" up its sleeve.
Apple is not a "regular" company — and it's a very common mistake to analyze them as if they are — they are an extraordinary company...
...and therefore Apple's quite difficult to catch. Especially when (insert company names here) are starting several years behind them and there's no longer an unprepared sugared water salesbozo around to sign away Apple's company jewels to allow (insert company names here) to "innovate" this time.
The iPhone is great software wrapped in wonderful hardware, and its software is five years ahead of anything else out there. - Apple CEO Steve Jobs, May 30, 2007
We've been pushing the state-of-the-art in every facet of design... We've been innovating like crazy for the last few years on this and we've field for over 200 patents for all of the inventions in iPhone. And we intend to protect them. - Steve Jobs, January 9, 2007
There's an old Wayne Gretzky quote I love: 'I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it's been.' That's what we try to do at Apple. - Steve Jobs, January 9, 2007
None of the companies that West mentions have both the hardware and software design chops (not to mention iTunes' App Store) that would be necessary to catch, much less compete with, Apple.
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Related article:
Dvorak: Apple iPhone will be duplicated by others within a couple of quarters - June 07, 2007
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MacDailyNews.com article summary:
Nokia has failed to have much of an impact in North America, either with the tech industry or with consumers...
Read the full article:
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/18236/
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Aug 22, 08 - 10:02 am Comment from: Connor MacBook
Wow, even I know better than a business professor!
Aug 22, 08 - 10:04 am Comment from: ElderNorm
Its funny how these so called "experts" have 100% hind sight and zero foresight. Of course that does not keep them from making guesses that NO one will check a year from now.
Skate to where the puck WILL BE, not to where it was. OF course, that is much easier if you are the one with the puck and your taking it where you want it to go. LOL
Just a thought.
en
Aug 22, 08 - 10:04 am Comment from: Mtnmnn
Whatever the timeframe is, one year, if ever, etc. the point is, Apple has a huge lead in a market that up until now saw a lead of a few weeks or months as huge, due to the fast changing pace in the past. Just the word lead, connotes others will have to play catch up just to "play" in this market with nokia face plate Apple.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:05 am Comment from: Paul
They just don't get it...
Aug 22, 08 - 10:05 am Comment from: Bobby Skinner
If Apple sits still they might, but somehow water damage on nokia phone I do not think Apple will. But what company has figured out that the phenomenon is not simply about style? The have to first stop tryin gto copy the look and start considering how to make user friendly UI's. Microsoft took a decade to create their first viable GUI when they were given the right to copy by Scully. Can these phone manufacturers that are even further behind than DOS was do it faster? Remember Apple did sit still for Microsoft to catch up, but they have never stood still with Jobs in charge!
Aug 22, 08 - 10:06 am Comment from: ron
It's easy to know more than a college prof. Their minds are screwed so far to the left they can only history of nokia see backwards.
Send this to 'Nancy the face'.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlfmvwxxgHM
Aug 22, 08 - 10:09 am Comment from: M.X.N.T.4.1.
It's obvious why the iPhone has succeded with mobile internet - it didn't require different versions of sites to actually view them. Other phones failed to make viewing of standard pages a worthwhile experience so no-one used them, since no-one used them site owners didn't bother to make mobile versions of their sites.
With the iPhone you can view a regular webpage and have an experience akin to viewing on a desktop computer. Since people are now using the web, site owners are coding versions of their site that take advantage of the iPhone that strip out the appropriate content to offer an experience that is suited to the smaller sized screen of the iPhone. Importantly users have the choice of both the full internet and a small screen optimised version.
The interesting thing is that even with the iPhone offering the full internet, websites are coding mobile versions with the iPhone in mind - not mobiles - the iPhone. Even if other phones catch up in some fashion, the iPhone will have an advantage in that mobile sites look increasingly like the iPhone interface.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:09 am Comment from: Mr. Reeee
Sure, provided any of those companies learn how to design a decent interface.
Oh, and if Apple does absolutely NOTHING to develop the iPhone/touch platform in the meantime, like Palm.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:16 am Comment from: G-Spank
What these guys really don't GET, is that the whole experience is tied into iTUNES. iTUNES. No competitor will ever be able to match iTUNES.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:18 am Comment from: Reality Check
Those that can, DO. Those that can't TEACH....
Aug 22, 08 - 10:22 am Comment from: Thomas
Here's what the competition is up against, time-wise:
The years of Unix development (unless they start w/Unix)
+ The years of NeXt development
+ The years of OS X development
+ a couple of years of iPhone OS development.
That's like starting with town like Canton, Kansas and building it up to match NYC.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:27 am Comment from: Umm
His idea would be sound if Apple did like Microsoft and just sat around on their laurels for years and never innovated or improved. Unfortunately for these other companies, Apple isn't going to just sit idle for the next 1-2 years and allow the others to ever catch up.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:28 am Comment from: Berrylium
Re the Wayne Gretzky quote:
Clearly, Apple's where to buy nokia phones competitors don't even know what the puck is, much less where it's going.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:29 am Comment from: colenzae
.......teach gym
Aug 22, 08 - 10:29 am Comment from: Nick Fury
Those that can't teach become gym teachers. Those that can't teach gym are promoted to principal. Those can't handle the promotion run for Congress.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:31 am Comment from: Spyinthesky
Symbian has ben around since the stone age and hasn't reached the bronze age yet I rather nokia cell phones manuals doubt it has an ice cube's chance in Hell of ever touching OSX's heels. No one is able to touch the iPod which has rudimentary (until now) complexity so how does this bozo seriously expect OSX which has pulled miles ahead on the desktop to be challenged.
MDN word 'lack' as in lack of any semblance of common sense
Aug 22, 08 - 10:33 am Comment from: Thomas
In addition to the hurdles of the iTunes franchise and the mature and polished OS infrastructure, the hacks for nokia competition has at least one more insurmountable obstacle: The App Store + iPhone SDK. The final nail in the coffin.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:39 am Comment from: MidWest Mac
@ Reality Check
And those who can't share a fresh perspective repeat cliches.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:39 am Comment from: qka
... and those who can't teach, TEACH TEACHERS.
On most campuses, the Education Deptartment is even more worthless than the Business Department.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:40 am Comment from: gzero
Apple is a moving target, streamcast radio for nokia which is why they won't get caught anytime soon.
What really irks me is the fact that Apple's game plan is so obvious, yet completely lost on the majority of analysts, pundits, media outlets, and apparently, college professors.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:45 am Comment from: Nick Fury
"And those who can't share a fresh perspective repeat cliches."
True. It's best to avoid clichés like the plague.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:46 am Comment from: Thomas
Oh, yes...there are also teus nokia cell phone 62651i the patents. The final hammer hitting the final nail in the coffin sending it over the edge of the cliff into the abyss.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:46 am Comment from: Anonymous©
Give him a break, he's a prof at San Jose State. It's not like he's at Harvard.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:47 am Comment from: Al
It sure is funny seeing Americans using Hockey metaphors instead of Football metaphors.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:47 am Comment from: Nick Fury
I love the smell of self-referential contradictions in the morning. It's a little like fresh cheese.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:50 am Comment from: Thomas
Nick Fury aka ampar
ZuneTang aka crissyone.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:51 am Comment from: Macromancer
"Their minds are screwed so far to the left they can only see backwards."
Generalize much?
Aug 22, 08 - 10:52 am Comment from: Mr. Reeee
Al... American football is a military metaphor, which lacks the grace, skill and creativity of hockey.
If you don't like, lets drop the gloves and go, eh?
Aug 22, 08 - 10:54 am Comment from: Thomas
Fury, Jim, Joey, Packy , Petey. Comrades on the dusty trail.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:57 am Comment from: Snafu
Given the ongoing MobileMe debacle and the non-multitasker Push sillyness, I don't think Apple's position is as unassailable as you think. Also, the iPhone is not as pure a product as an iPod is, so defining: for a start, not everybody wants that form factor.
The real Apple advantage is the brand, as usual, but I don't think it will be as competitive in this sector. Not that Apple won't get a percentage of market it is comfortable with, but I don't think they'll get world dominance at all. Macs aren't, anyway.
Aug 22, 08 - 10:57 am Comment from: Ampar
" . . . or they can respond to the iPhone challenge by making their products easier to use and more compelling."
Good luck with that.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:02 am Comment from: nobodi
West is clearly hedging when he uses "or." If the guy is so knowledgeable, he should have an idea as to which company will catch up to the iPhone.
However, when he says,
"Successful companies usually assume that marketing problems are because the market isn’t getting their message ... but often it’s because they’re not listening to the market," West writes."
Truer words were never spoken, as witness the music industry's ongoing debacle with digital music distribution and various failed attempts at music subscription business models.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:03 am Comment from: dax
Problem is that some people think a touch screen is a touch screen. There won't be anything like the iPhone, nothing will come even close. But will people understand this? How can anyone who has used an iPhone buy a Blackberry? But then, look at how people always distorted things comparing Mac to Windows
Aug 22, 08 - 11:04 am Comment from: R2
The only companies I can think of that are five years behind the iPhone are the lower tier phone makers like Motorola, Sony Ericsson, Sanyo, etc. Definitely Motorola, they're totally lost a year after the iPhone even came out.
When it comes to Nokia, HTC, RIM, LG and Samsung, however, I'd lean closer toward the professor's assessment. One or two years ahead sounds right.
I wouldn't be surprised if Samsung and LG have multi-touch phones out by 2009. The question is what will Apple drop that same year in order to extend the gap.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:09 am Comment from: R2
Also, I think I read that the HTC Touch Diamond is multi-touch capable but they just don't have the software to enable its use (because it runs Windows Mobile).
So they might be already caught up on the hardware front but, like others said, it's all about the software.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:12 am Comment from: fablloyd
Wow MDN, your take on Apple has gone from blind to pass the kool aid! With the recent Apple fumbles, playing old commercials just doesn't cut it.
I hope the other companies step up their game and give Apple a run. Perhaps then, we won't have to go through the MobileMe fiasco again and Apple will have more stable releases to avoid this kind of thing with the 3G:
http://discussions.apple.com/thread.jspa?threadID=1662678&tstart=0
Love the iphone and love Apple, but the blind loyalty and non-critical mindset MDN is showing points me to TUAW to get my Apple news these days.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:16 am Comment from: alansky
Interesting how all these so-called "analysts" seem to assume that Apple will just be sitting around doing nothing while all these other companies "catch up." Right...
Aug 22, 08 - 11:23 am Comment from: DumDum Dugan
"True. It's best to avoid clichés like the plague."
Yes... because it's always better to reinvent the wheel.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:28 am Comment from: Jeff
It's funny though how many internet companies don't get it either.
I received an e-mail from Disney (Steve's other company), telling me about there mobile internet version of Disney.com.
So I proceeded to follow the link using my iPhone 3G and low and behold, I get the this site uses Flash message. I think it is time these companies get a clue, the most used WEB Phone \ mobile WEB devices (iPod touch) do not use Flash and if you are going to make a WEB site specifically for Mobile Browsing you need to take this into account. Steve Job, you are not doing your job on the Disney Board if you are not vigorously pointing this out to them at every meeting!
Aug 22, 08 - 11:32 am Comment from: One Stop Shopper
fablloyd,
I get my TUAW headlines (and much more) from MDN's left column.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:35 am Comment from: Uncle Al
I thought those who can't teach, coach.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:37 am Comment from: TexasAg03
West writes, "My hunch is that Apple has at least another year or two before Nokia gets its software act together. (And if Nokia doesn’t, then Microsoft, RIM, LG or Samsung will.) So, as when it faced Windows 95, Apple better have something up its sleeve to further advance innovations when competitors catch up to its first mobile phone act."
So, Apple nokia broadband modem only has a year or two before competitors catch up to THE CURRENT iPHONE. I guess that means that in 2010, they will be a year or two away from catching up to that year's iPhone...
Aug 22, 08 - 11:37 am Comment from: fablloyd
O.S.S.
Or you could go straight to the source so you don't have to deal with the friggin' adds on MDN all the time. Seriously, I don't want a Snorg Tee and the hidden windows are getting old.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:42 am Comment from: Thomas
Many might ask how Apple got so far ahead; or not even understand how far ahead Apple is. Many think that the iPhone was created in just a couple of years and that certainly a competent company could duplicate the development process. But the truth is, the iPhone's advantage is due, for the most part, on decades of work in an area of development that few companies dabble, that is, full OS development. In addition, of those companies that have developed full-blown OS's, none have apparently created them with the scalability of OS X.
Again, I think few understand the daunting challenge of matching Apple's OS with it's Core Graphics, Core Audio, all the minor bits and pieces of a complete, modular, OS plus the beautiful development tools Apple has put nokia free ringtones together. As what's-his-face said during the original iPhone SDK presentation, the iPhone OS was built on the shoulders of a giant.
Anybody who thinks the competition has an even remote chance of matching the functionality of the iPhone OS just is not adequately quantifying the tremendous number of person-years of development that have gone into the making of this device.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:44 am Comment from: Jersey_Trader
You state: "None of the companies ... the hardware and software ... (... iTunes' App Store)..."
You have not considered the chip development company that Apple picked up. Also think smaller about great Apple innovations to come!
Aug 22, 08 - 11:47 am Comment from: MrScrith
How old is that commercial? I still love it! I need to find it in download-able iPhone-friendly format.
Aug 22, 08 - 11:49 am Comment from: Orange Juice
Only if Apple sits still, and Apple AIN"T gonna sit still.
We really don't know yet just how far ahead Apple is, but yesterdays Blackberry BOLD gives a good indication.
Let's keep in mind Intel and others mobile processors are getting smaller and more powerful. Combine that with many more Mac OS X features added to the iPhone slowly in order not to cannibalize their ever growing laptop sales. The multi-touch and operating system are the keys.
Turn by turn will come soon, drive use, greater capacity, speech, iChat camera.
True video conferencing will put them light years away from everybody else as bandwidth and compression increase.
Just imagine what they are doing a year ahead already in the labs. I still want a colored shuffle watch.
Aug 22, 08 - 12:08 pm Comment from: elgruga
@ElderNorm - good post!
@ Thomas - exactly!
Apple made the PC happen, but Micro$oft copied them.
Apple made the nokia xpressmusic hacks iPod - many have copied it, but no success.
Apple made the iPhone - do you REALLY think someone can copy it and do it better, or even half as good?
WHEN are we going to see that it is APPLE who have driven the WHOLE personal computer revolution in our world?
Even if you are a Windows user, you only have a PC because APPLE started the whole damn thing.
Most never really understand history, and they certainly cant see the future.
Aug 22, 08 - 12:09 pm Comment from: @ fablloyd
It's all about the software idiot.
Anyone can make the hardware, after all, they're all using the same parts.
No one does software like Apple does.
MDN is right to be smug. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way to TUAW.
Aug 22, 08 - 12:12 pm Comment from: elgruga
I dont want a Snorg Tee either, but MDN IS the most lively and fun and no-holds-barred Mac site around.
MDN: The best news site for Macs on the Web! (IMHO)
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