Since the recession of 2001, around 2 million jobs have been lost. In addition to that, the working age population is also growing: about 150,000 workers (or potential workers) per month. In order to return to the employment level before the recession, more jobs than new entrants to the potential work force need to be added, something which has not happened. The Oregon Center for Public Policy (OCPP) released an issue brief on December 12, 2003 on the 'jobs gap', the difference between employment creation and the number of new potential workers, for Oregon, the state hardest hit by the recent recession. They found results mirroring the national numbers: between November 2000 and November 2003, the 'jobs gap' was 158, 930. Furthermore, they found that the recent 'recovery' in terms of a fall in the unemployment rate (which also occurred at the national level) was due primarily to people giving up on searching for a job rather than people finding jobs. In order to really call for a recovery, unemployed workers need to be finding jobs and people who left the labor force need to be brought back in and find jobs. Currently this is not happening in Oregon, and the situation is probably similar for the nation as a whole. The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) reported that, had growth in employment kept up with the growth in the labor force, there would be 6.9 million more jobs available now than in March of 2001, when the recession began. George W. Bush's celebration over the falling unemployment rate is probably misplaced (and he can't try to claim credit even if the falls in the unemployment rate were caused by vibrant growth in employment).
OCPP issue brief on the 'jobs gap'(PDF file)
Oregon Center for Public Policy
Economic Policy Institute
Back to Commentary Home
©2003 Richard B. Goud, Jr.
Updated on 12 December 2003 at 21:32 PST