The Likely Future of the CCP
* Continuing economic prosperity may maintain the public's contentment, but it will also cause erosion of the officialist mindset that the CCP relies on to retain power.
* In order to maintain economic prosperity and thereby secure a temporary hold on power, the Party must do away with tariffs and depose the protectionist oligopolists of the old order.
* Political liberalization shall be gradual, and no mass turmoil or uprisings are expected.
* The Party, if it further creates allowances for dissent and varied ideas, will morph into a vast interest group instead of a monolithic totalitarian entity.

* The Party's most disastrous path is not acknowledging some of the crises facing China today, including the SARS epidemic. If recent government mismanagement escalates, the CCP might meet a more abrupt and turbulent end.
* Jiang Zemin's economic but not political reforms are expected to continue as Jiang rules China from behind the scenes. Hu Jintao is expected to unveil plans of his own in 2007, which may entail a swifter transition to a free society.
* The military will remain a pro-status quo force of domestic control, but the Chinese leadership will not dare "unify" the country my means of external aggression.
"Socialism is workable only in heaven where it isn't needed, and in hell where they've got it." ~ Cecil Palmer
P R O C E E D.
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