We begin the New Year on a happy note. Not because of the millennium feeling. It has more to do with what we achieved in the year just ended. Using time-tested guidelines of chart analysis and our own experimental methods of applied astronomy we got productive results.

We sensed well in advance the beginning of the Nasdaq bear market. Watching the planetary trend unfolding we outlined in the release dated 13^th April titled "Beware of the Nasdaq’ an imminent Nasdaq collapse .We then forecast periods of market weakness that came to pass and the extent of the Nasdaq bear market which has largely been fulfilled.

Continuing our yr.1999 bullish Oil market outlook, in July we stated our expectation for the crude to reach a high of $35/40. On 1^st December identifying the wedge formation in crude charts we forecast the impending breakout of the price .The subsequent special bulletin of 9^th December confirmed the ending diagonal and anticipated the ensuing decline to current levels.

Our bearish view of the Bombay Stock exchange in September when pundits looked for ‘technology‘ to

show the way to a resumed Bull phase was on spot too.

Regular readers of Krystal Ball who followed our early warnings and the detailed trend line chart pointers should have had a good reason to celebrate the new millennium. But not those driven on by a greed for unbroken speculative profits. Or those ‘long term’ holders who were led by experts talking about ‘earnings’ outlook and ‘sectoral’ strengths into disregarding the trend turn dictated by change in market sentiment.

Every form of market investment is affected by the trend of that specific market. Whether it be stocks or real estate. When we buy property with the idea of settling down then we need to look at the soil, climate, environment etc etc. Having bought for keeps we don’t much care about market price fluctuation. No one else in the market is bidding up or down the price of our house.

But if we bought real estate with the idea of selling for profit then we need to look out for a trend top to sell. If we miss the chance then there is no point in talking about the worth of the soil or the beauty of the sunset from our terrace.

Same story for stocks. During a bear market trend forget about ‘earnings’,’valuations’ and ‘sectoral’ specialty. The market will not sustain the high price for a stock however special. The underlying balance sheet of the stock has attraction only for the pure accountant.

Important point. Does anyone buy stocks to ‘settle down ‘ with it for life? Every buyer has a time frame for exit. Some may define a time frame or price target. Most expect to do the right thing at the right time. So really speaking every investor is a speculator. In fact there is nothing called investment. Every form of money venture is ultimately speculation and subject to risks.

And when it’s done in a market place crowd psychology or sentiment determines price trends. The ups and downs of market moods accompanied by corresponding fluctuations in price trends was studied among others by Charles Dow and then by Elliot. They charted the price action in recognizable patterns and laid down guidelines that enabled forecasting. Those who follow these time-tested methods benefit more often than not especially in avoiding losses. But nature’s law is that the majority will disregard wisdom and end up ultimately as losers. We should therefore be careful in emulating the majority