There has been daily coverage on the news over the past two weeks about China's new Anti-secession law, which is aimed specifically at Taiwan. Basically the law states that if Taiwan declares itself an independent state, then China has a legal basis to use "non-peaceful means" to get Taiwan to comply with the internationally accepted One China Policy. In other words, attack and force Taiwan into reunification with China.
There are a few reasons why I never see this actually happening. Firstly, Taiwan is in no real position to declare independence. The president, Chen Shui-bian, and his pro-independence movement have very little local support for such a move and practically no international support. The USA is strongly opposed to any such declaration and, despite the lack of official recognition, is still Taiwan's strongest ally and has a huge say in what happens in this country. China has the ability to tell the USA to butt out of its "internal affairs", but Taiwan dare not say the same thing.
Secondly, both Taiwanese and American forces will aggressively counter any hostile move by China. Taiwan is not Hong Kong or Macau, city states that had no real means of fighting off Chinese forces if they had to, which was not necessary anyway because they were ruled by a foreign powers prior to their handover to China. The foreign powers, Britain and Portugal, simply ceded the territories back to China. That situation does not exist in Taiwan. Here, the government is elected by the island's people and a hostile Chinese force will not only have to overcome the standing Taiwanese military, but will probably also be faced by a significant insurgent force.
Thirdly, simple common sense suggests that a war between Taiwan and China will be prohibitively costly, both in terms of lives and economics. It is of no benefit to either country and aggressive acts by either state will result in international condemnation and subsequent sanctions and isolation.
The hullabaloo over this anti-secession law is not being seen for what it actually is, in my humble opinion - one country trying to keep one step ahead of the other. If you don't believe me, come here and see how no one is making preparations for war!
17 March 2005
Dion Marc Delport