A geomatical approach
FINANCER: Romanian Ministry of Education and Research / UEFISCSU / CNCSIS
CONTRACTOR: Romanian Academy, Department of Iasi, Geography Group
Carol I, No. 8, Iasi, 700505, ROMANIA
DURATION: 2006-2008
RESEARCH TEAM
- research scientist III dr. PATRICHE CRISTIAN-VALERIU - project manager, Romanian Academy, Department of Iasi, Geography Group, email: [email protected], website: http://www.geocities.com/pvcristi/
- assistant, Ph.D student SFICA LUCIAN - collaborator, �Al. I. Cuza� University of Iasi, Faculty of Geography and Geology, email: [email protected]
- dr. STOICA DAN-LAURENTIU - collaborator, Environmental Protection Agency, Iasi
- lecturer dr. RADUCANU RAZVAN - collaborator, �Al. I. Cuza� University of Iasi, Faculty of Mathematics, email: [email protected]
- dr. PATRICHE EMILIA-ISABELA - collaborator, Voinesti School, Iasi, email: [email protected]
RESEARCH ABSTARCT
The research project proposes a complex multidimensional analysis of the climate system aimed towards the quantification of the spatial and temporal predictability of meteorological and climatic parameters and of the uncertainty introduced by the models applied. The applications will cover the territory of the Moldavian Plain and the Oriental Carpathians, situated in eastern Romania. The spatial analysis will focus on revealing and quantifying of the roles played by the regional and local climate genesis factors in the explanation of the spatial distribution of meteo-climatic parameters, at different scales of space and time, by comparative application of various statistical, mathematical and conceptual methods. A special attention will receive the validation step, in order to establish the optimum spatialisation method for each meteo-climatic parameter, as well as the step of uncertainty assessment derived from the methods specific assumptions and the resulting errors. The temporal analysis will focus on the identification of the meteo-climatic parameters evolution trends and quasi-cyclic components and on their causal links with potential controlling factors (global warming, major volcanic eruptions, solar activity cycles etc.), as well as on the quantification of models uncertainty by residual analysis. The adjusted time series will be extrapolated in order to formulate prognosis concerning the evolution of the meteo-climatic parameters within the context of global climate change.
Similar research projects:
- COST 734 Action: Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture - CLIVAGRI
- Action COST-ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach
- COST 719 action: The use of GIS in climatology and meteorology
1. Preliminary analysis of the applicable GIS and statistical software
- comparative analyses of the spatial modeling possibilities for certain GIS software (TNTMips, ArcGIS, Surfer, IDRISI, Saga-GIS, New LocClim) and of appropriateness of statistical software (Excel/XLSTAT, Statistica, Variowin, Vesper)
- interoperability of the different GIS software
2. Derivation of potential predictors and the spatial representativeness of the meteorologic network
- derivation of potential predictors
- the analysis of spatial representativeness of the meteorological stations and rain gauges in relation with the potential predictors
3. Derivation of the optimal spatialisation methods according to the nature of the meteo-climatic element, the space and time scales
- comparative testing of multiple spatialisation methods (statistical, conceptual, mathematical methods) and the choice of the optimal method in relation with nature of the meteo-climatic elements
- analysis of the spatial scale influence (resolution) on the the choice of the optimal spatialisation method
- analysis of the time scale influence (daily, monthly, annual valeus) on the the choice of the optimal spatialisation method
4. Uncertainties related to the spatial modeling of the meteo-climatic variables
- the analysis of uncertainties derived from the models assumptions and from the resulted errors
- the analysis of the error propagation at the level of certain derived variables
5. Temporal modeling and causality analysis within meteo-climatic parameters evolution
- extraction and analysis of the latent tempotal climate dimensions by principal components analysis
- extraction and analysis of the evolutional trends, of the quasi-cyclic components (spectral analysis, auto-correlation models) and of the residuals
- correlation of meteo-climatic parameters evolution with the potential explicative factors (solar cyclic activity, El Ni�o oscillation, atmospheric CO2 evolution, volcanic eruptions etc.)
6. The probable climate evolution in relation with the global climate change
- extrapolation of time series through prognosis of meteo-climatic parameters evolution in the context of global climatic change
- uncertainty analysis of the probable climate evolution
RESULTS
Annual research reports and other details regarding the project can be downloaded form the webpage of the Minstry of Education and Research reserved to CEEX-ET projects research reports (http://www.resurse-umane-cdi.ro)
The final research report may also be downloaded following the next link: final report pdf RO
Dissemination (only English / French presented or written research papers)
Conference presentations:
- 6th European Conference on Precision Agriculture (ECPA), 3-6 iunie 2007, Skiathos, Grecia, poster:
- Patriche C. V., Spatialisation methods for (agro)climatic and soil parameters at regional and local scales
- XX�me Colloque de l�Association Internationale de Climatologie, 3-8 septembrie 2007, Carthage, Tunisie:
- Lhotellier R�mi, Patriche Cristian-Valeriu, D�rivation des param�tres topographiques et influence sur la spatialisation statistique de la temp�rature
- European Geosciences Union General Assembly, April 13-18, 2008, Viena, Austria:
- Patriche C.V., Lhotellier R., Aspects concerning the identification and assessment of the errors affecting statistical spatial models of climatic parameters
- First International Symposium on Technical Geography, 30-31 May 2008, �Babes Bolyai� University, Cluj Napoca:
- Patriche C. V., Sfica L., Rosca B., About the problem of digital precipitations mapping using (geo)statistical methods in GIS
Articles:
- Patriche C.V., About the influence of space scale on the spatialisation of meteo-climatic variables, Geographia Technica, Nr. 1 / 2007, Cluj University Press.
- Harjoaba I., Erhan E., Patriche C. V., Contributions to the Regionalization of the Air Temperature in Europe, Anal. St. Univ. "Al. I. Cuza" Iasi, s. II c., Geogr., tom LIII, 2007.
- Erhan Elena, Harjoaba I., Patriche C. V., The annual precipitations regime in Europe, Lucr. Sem. Geografic �Dimitrie Cantemir�, nr. 27, Univ. �Al. I. Cuza� Ia?i, 2007.
- Patriche C.V. - Spatialisation methods for (agro)climatic and soil parameters at regional and local scales, poster papers proceedings, 6th European Conference on Precision Agriculture, 3-6 Iunie, Skiathos, Grecia, Fountas S., Aggelopoulou A., Gemtos F., Blackmore S. (editors), 6p.
- Lhotellier R., Patriche C.V., D�rivation des param�tres topographiques et influence sur la spatialisation statistique de la temp�rature, Actes du XX�me Colloque de l�Association Internationale de Climatologie, 3-8 septembre 2007, Carthage, Tunisie, p. 357-362
- Sfica L., Patriche C. V. � Global radiation in the Siret corridor.A spatial distribution analysis using GIS methods, Lucrarile Simpozionului International �Sisteme Informationale Geografice, NR. 13, suplim. Anal. ?t. Univ. �Al. I. Cuza� Ia?i, Tom LIII, s. II c., Geografie, 2007, p. 41-46.
- Patriche C.V, Sfica L., Rosca B., About the problem of digital precipitations mapping using (geo)statistical methods in GIS, Geographia Technica, nr. 1, 2008, p. 82-91.
- Patriche C.V., Lhotellier, R., Aspects concerning the identification and assessment of the errors affecting statistical spatial models of climatic parameters (abstract), European Geosciences Union, Viena, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, EGU2008-A-02355, 2008.