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| Chapter 5 |
| Leaders MUST be able to recognize public demand! 30 September 2004 Private Opinions personal opinions, belonging to only one person... they become public opnions when many people share the same opinion! Public Opinions Sources of Public Opinion Elections, initiative, referenda, recall * Interest groups * Polling Polling--the scientific method of determining public opinion Aspects to Public Opinion found by Polling 1. Public Opinion can legitimize political authority -Politicians can claim their policies are correct based on polling data 2. Can make elected officials more responsive to the public 3. Help Candidates win campaigns (hire pollsters) Formation of Public Opinion (what shapes it?) * Political Socialization -process by which our beliefs and values are formed absorption of our attitudes over time by those who influenced us * Socializing Agents - are the forces that cause political socialization 1. Family- dominant in early years, children tend to take on their parents' views 2. Social Groups- -involuntary- gender (women vote Democratic 8-10% more than men), marital status, region (your parents chose where you grew up, you didn�t), race, wealth, social status -voluntary- peers, friends, coworkers, environmental/business groups, labor unions 3. Education- early years basically reinforce local values, patriotism higher education shapes beliefs, gives more perspectives 4. Political/Generational events/conditions (ex: 9/11, Great Depression) 5. Media Influence- newspaper, TV, radio, internet -can't exactly tell us what to think, but can influence what we think about Measuring Public Opinion --- Public Opinion Polls *Random Sample--key is to have a representative sample, where everyone has an equal chance of being selected. *Sampling Error--occurs b/c they aren't asking everyone *Legitimate Poll--has certain info to help analyze it -how many people - needs to hit at least 1200 ppl for a National Poll for a 3% sampling error 95% confidence level, 19/20 times it will have that error -how old is it? *Expensive!!! 5 October 2004 Problems with Polls * Selection Effects- errors in results because of the way they select respondents (not random enough) times of calls, place of question asking (ex: sporting events) * Measurement Error- opinions measured improperly, they are very dependent on circumstances (see pg 128) * Confusing Questions- wording of the questions can confuse people * Value-Laden Wording- the words used can generate different responses -very important to have neutral-worded questions * Over-simplified Questions- question is too blunt, opinions are more complex and need the �if�s in them. -(ex: do you favor abortion?) * Bandwagon Effect- as you get closer to an election, people see who is ahead, and people �jump on the bandwagon� and support them too. * Lack of Information- it�s difficult to get an accurate poll when people don�t know what the question is about. * Dishonesty- people lie during a poll if they think it will embarrass them. * Halo Effect- many citizens give �good citizen� answers, �socially respectable� answers, whether they�re true or not * Push-Polls- polling technique where pollster asks respondent a loaded question about a candidate, intended to get a certain response, and also shape that respondent�s perception/opinion about the candidate (esp to get negative gossip started about a candidate) Questions to ask before trusting a Poll 1. who did the research, who paid for it? (major research organization ex: Gallup, Roper Starch Worldwide) 2. time and place of the questioning- voters change their minds 3. who was sampled? Must be random! everyone should have the same chance of getting selected -any time the sample can select itself, it doesn�t mean anything 4. wording of the question- was it leading? 5. question order (asking about the economy then the president�s approval in the same questioning session) Americans are Uninformed -they only gather information about what will effect them personally to avoid info costs -very little about public affairs 1. Mass Public (75-80%) most apathetic group, least informed, easiest to manipulate 2. Attentive Public (15-20%) more informed, know the basics & some specifics about how govt works -fairly well-defined opinions about issues, fairly consistent -generally express themselves by voting, sometimes interest groups 3. Elites (top 5%) most informed, party leaders, business leaders, govt leaders -shape opinions of others *For most, politics are a luxury interest, most more concerned w/family, job, etc. *Many who criticize ppl for not paying attention to politics generally have a need to keep up with it 7 October 2004 Information Costs�monetary $, time, effort The puzzle is not why so many Americans are ill-informed; the puzzle is why so many ppl are as informed as they are! ** Issue Public- group of people particularly affected by or concerned with a specific issue. Americans are Unconstrained (by ideology) Those who hold a strong ideology are constrained by it; certain values/beliefs keep them consistent. Americans aren�t constrained; they have different beliefs on different issues, not always connecting. Ideology- system of beliefs/orientations/values through which ppl come to understand politics 1. Liberal (R)- social reform, expansion, don�t want govt to get involved at all 2. Conservative (D)- economic freedom but want govt to support traditional values (for death penalty, oppose abortion rights) Conflicts between ideologies 1. social, 2. economic, 3. foreign affairs Americans are Unpredictable�inconsistent views |