              pp ᯮ짮짮 窨 ᯥp 
                           ⥬ "pᠫ"


                                 pp 1.
         樠쭠 宫: 業 㤮⢮p 

                           1. 騥 砭

          ,- 業,  ⥯ ⫨ 
,-p  p   p "宫 -
",   p⠭  1987.  p  p᪨
 ⥫⢮ "pp"  1990.
           p᭠   p楢, ⠪   "p-
塞"-p冷 p p. p  讬  
p訢,業 ⥯  pp "⥬pp ⥫"
⢠   㤨  ⢥ p p " -
 p". 㡫  p稭 祭 p
 p p樨  p⥣  ⠪⨪ p
p쭮  客 p  ⢠.  ᠬ
pᥭ  p冷 p,   ᪮業pp  -
 p   p⥫   ⨦ -
⥫ p⮢  ᥤ ⥫쭮.
           .p 㯮  ⮤ 業 p
 : pאַ  ᢥ.
          p 砥 p訢  pאַ p "᪮쪮
 㤮⢮p   饥 p?"  p  ⢥ 
ᮮ⢥⢨  ᥬ쭮 誠:
  
  p襭 㤮⢮p     p쭮    ⢮p 
   1         2          3        4      5         6            7

          p⮢ pאַ ⮤ 業 ᢨ⥫
 ⮬,  ⢮ ᢮⢥  ⪮ pp 
⢮ ⮨.
         ⪨:
         1) 業 砥 襭, ⠪   ⭥ -
 ᥡ ⫨稪,  㤠筨;
         2) p  㤮⢮p   pp 騬:
   ᯥ⮢,    p, p㣨- 
祭, p-p ;    㬥  p   
?
         3) 業 ⢥ p ﭨ ⭮ -
p: ᫨ 騭 p 梥  ᪠,   pᨢ-᪠ 
 ,   㦠᭠?
         ⮨⢠:
         1) p 業;
         2)   - 業 p  ⢥.
         ᢥ ⮤ 業 ⮨  pᬮp p
⥩  p : ᥬ ⭮襭,p,p,p,,
p... p pᬮp  "p"   -
  ⥭  "客" : 樮쭮,p 
pᨨ,⮩稢  ﭨ pᮢ,p  饭,-
p  p,p,䨫䨨...
         ᢥ ⮤ ᢮⢥ ᢮   .

                              - 2 -                                   

         ⪨ ᢥ ⮤:
         1)   㢥p,  p㥬 p  
뢠 ⢥ ﭨ  p 饩 㤮⢮p 
 - ⠪ 㢥p  p ⮫쪮  ⥫쭮
ꥬ pp⥫ ᫥(⭮, p -
   ᯮ㥬 ⮤ ᫥: p pאַ p
ᥫ   1971.   ᠬ ⥫ 䠪p  -
 , ᥬ   p 室      ᯨ᪠
⥫ 䠪p;  ⥬, ᮢ⭠ p⪠ p⮢ 
pאַ  ᢥ ⮤ 業 , 䠪᪨  
⮨ p - ᥬ  ᨫ쭥   㤮⢮p 
, 㤠筮 p );
         2) p  p㫨p ⠪,⮡  p訢
    ( 㦥),祬  ᠬ ;
         3) pᮢ , ⢥  p;  
⥬,  ,    筮,᪮,pp,
⠪ p⮥ ⨥   p  ⢮ ⨩:
ᯮp,᪮⥪,pᬮp ⥫ pp,⥭ ,㢫祭
몮,,樮p  ..
         ⮨⢠:
         1) 業 砥  筮;
         2) 業   ⮫쪮  筮 p -
饥 p ⢠,  pp, 䠪p  
᫮ -  쭥襬   p   p室
pp 㤠p⢠  p p稭,p   -
⢠.
          p,p  ᮡ pאַ  ᢥ ⮤
業 樠쭮-宫᪮ ﭨ ⢠,᫥ -
:
         1) ᢥ ⮤  p㤮 ,᫥⥫쭮,p,
   墮 㯠 筮 砥 p⮢  -
  p稭,᫮ 祭 p;
         2) pאַ ⮤ ⥫쭮  襢, p   -
 p p稭,p訥  祭 p⠬.
         p p᪨ 樠쭮-宫᪨ ᫥ ᫥-
   ⮤,pאַ  ᢥ,-  ⮬ 䠪᪨ p-
뢠  .p.


               2. ⮤ ᯮ짮 窨 "pᠫ" 
                  
                     2.1. p筠 p 窨

          p p p   
"":
         1)  "⢮p ";
         2)  "客 p".
            p⠢ ᮡ p᭨,騩 -
p쭮  客   (p筨  pᮢ 
p 롨p  ꥪ⮢ p  ⠡ 1  2).
         p ⮣,    pp  
⠡ p⭮ 痢  p⠬ ⢥⮢  
p  pﬨ 誠 ⥯ .    pᬮp 
 .p 砥,p 誠  ᥬ p権(.⠡.1  2):


                            - 3 -     

         1) p砩 ;
         2)  ;
         3)    ;
         4) ⠪ ᥡ;
         5) ;
         6) 祭 ;
         7) 㦥 㤠.
         ( p ⥮p 䨪樨  pᯮ p 
p樨   "ᠬ",  p  p
⢥⮢  -p  祭ﬨ p,ᮮ⢥⢥).
         魮 ⠡ p⭮ 痢 쬠 p  -
 p᪨  祫: pp,  p祭  1
"p砩 "  p 1 "p"  祭 1 "", p 
믮 ᫮ "᫨  稭..." p⠢ ᫮ 0.35 - 
, p p㯯 稭,"p砩 " ᢮ ,
35% .


                 2.2.㤠   p p

          p -  㤠   35%?
          祭  p, p , 魮,p-
쭮 業 p .  ⢥    
᫥騬 ᯮᮡ:
         1) ᯮ ⮢ ᪨ p -  pp -
 p ⠪ p ᪨ p   p䨪  
⠡;
         2) ᠬ⥫쭮 業 室 "p業"  p
p ᥫ,.. 業  "䠪᪮ p";
         3) p ᯮᮡ 1)  2).
         ᯮp ⮨⢮ 窨 "pᠫ"  -
 ᯮ짮    ᯮᮡ. ᯮ짮-
   p⨪   ⠪ p:pp,  .p-
 室 ⨪  ⠪  , 䠪᪮ p  
,  ⭮ - p    ,  , p-
⠭  쭮 p p ⥫,  易⥫쭮 pᨮ-
쭮  宫.
         p pp.  2.1   .p(ᮮ⭮襭
⫨ :ᥬ,,p,%)  .

                     ( ⠡.2.1  ..p)
        -------------------------------------------------------
                                    稭        騭
        -------------------------------------------------------
               ᥬ               35.0          41.5
                              18.5          25.5
               p            18.5          15.5
        -------------------------------------------------------                                      
                                      72.0          82.5


                             - 4 -    


         ᭮  ⠪ 뢮 㦨 , 㬬p  
⫨ 稭  騭, 祬-  砥 100%. 
p,  ⮩ ⠡ p   p樨 ⫨
. ⢨⥫쭮,  ᮯp⥫쭮 ⥪ ᮮ頥, 
  p - ,騥 ,  騥 p㣠.
p ⮣,ᮮ頥 ,   ⫨,祬 , 
 ⫨,祬 騥  p.   100% ᮮ⢥騥
稭 72%  騭  82.5%,稬 28%  17.5%, ᮮ⢥⢥. 
 ᫨ ᫮ 28% ᮣ  ᪠,  17.5% -  p.
         ,p "" ᫥ p饯   p樨:
"    p"  "". ᭮  ⠪ p饯-
 : p     p   -
⥫쭠   ,⮣  p 殢  p
 .  p, ᫥  ⠡.9.1   .p,-
⢥   㤮⢮p .
          ⬥⨬, ⠡ 2.1   .p  
 ⮬,   pp ⮫쪮 ⫨  -   
    , p   ?
          p⥭   .p  뫮  p-
,   ᪮쪮   p  p襭 ⠢
.
         p⨢ ⮬ p⠢ ᫥騩 室  -
짮  .p:   䠪᪨ ⮢ p筨
䠪p,⢥    㤮⢮p , ⠪-
   ⢮ 騥 ᪨   p-
 p権  䠪p p p㯯 ᥫ  p筮 -
 㤮⢮p .  ⠪  㯨 p p筮
p "pᠫ":p᭨  "⢮p "
p᪨  ⫨砥  p 稬 䠪p  ⠡ 1.2
 .p -   ᪮쪮 pp , p "",
"p⥫","p⢥",᪮  p    䠪-
p 㦤  쬠 ⢥.
         筮  㯨  p pp p᭨ -
 "客 p",㤠 祭 䠪p "樮쭮","p-
 pᨨ","pp"  p.(. ⠡.2).
           ᪨ , ,  뫮 ,
  pאַ ⢮.  ᮦ, p p, -
    p .


                 2.3. 㯨,᫨  墠⠥ -
                              ᪨ ?

           ᯮᮡ:
         1) ;
         2) ᯮ짮 䠪᪮ p.
         p 砥  ⮬,  ⠡ 痢 뢠
騥 ᪨ , p, p-
. ⮨⢮ ⮣ ᯮᮡ -  砭 p 窠


                            - 5 -
                            

"pᠫ" 룫廊 譥 쬠 筮,᪮ p-
 㭪樮p  뤠 p p.  ⮣
筮  p ⢠ ⥭樠쭮 㯠⥫ 窨
"pᠫ"  p묨 ᭮묨  ﬨ.  -
⮪ ᯮᮡ - p   p묨, ᥣ  p-
묨. p㣮 ⮪ - 室  ⢥ -
,⮡   ⠡ 痢 p ⨪.
         p ᯮᮡ 砥  祭 室 -
  䠩-p⮪,pp㥬 㠢⮬᪨  p祬 p-
 㭪樮p 窨 "pᠫ".   p楤p,-pp-
 p⮪  祭   ᪨ ,-p-
 ⮫쪮 p,  p  짮⥫ ᮡ -
p殮. ⮨⢮ ᯮᮡ 祢:짮⥫ 砥 ᯥp-
 ⥬  ⮬ 䠪᪮ p,p p.   
 ᢥ, ᯮᮡ  ᢮ ⪨:室 p  p-
,  p⮪  筮 p樨.
         ⢥ p-᪮쪮  㦭 p ,p㣨 ᫮-
,⢥ ᪮쪨 祫   䨪p  p⮪,-
, p ⨪, ᪠ 롮p 뫠 p⠢⥫-
?  p㤭 ,p,  砫 뫮  -
 p 祫  20-30   ᥬ ᮢ, 1-  7-
( "p砩 "  "㦥 㤠"),  饩 ᫮ -
⠢ 140-210 祫. ᪮ p p  祫 -
⠢ p⥫쭮 15-20 .(   pp⥫ -
 ⮢ p訢), , p
pp 8 p  pp뢭 ᯫ樨 . 
         쭥 ᯫ 窨 "pᠫ" 楫ᮮp
p ᫥騬 p:
         1)  ( p "p") 䨪⨢ ⨪ 
p;
         2) ᯫp "pᠫ"  p祬 p,ﭭ -
 p⮪ p⠬ pᮢ -  p⢨ ᪮쪨  
p  㤥 ᭮ ppp ᪨ .
           ᫥ ppp  ? ᫨  -
p  p p 1-2 .祫  樠쭮-᪠
  p ⠡쭠,⮣ 쭥訥 ppp p 
㦭.
          뢮 p ᮣ  ᫥騬 묨,-
묨   .p.
           ⮬ 1971. p 樮쭮 p ᫥ -
p襭 2164 祫. 
p᪮ ᫥ p 墠⨫ 400 祫,p-
᪮ 筮 ᫥ - 墠⨫ 2300 祫 (1981 .),⮫쪮 
 p ᫥    1984 .
         p᪨ p Psychology Today pᨫ 10000 -
   .
         p ᫥   ,稢 祭 p㯭 먣-
p  p,p襭 22 祫, ⠪ p쭠 p㯯 p-
쭮 p  (pp p쭮 p㯯  㪠).
           p ᫥ 㤮⢮p "  p諮"
p襭 3077 祫 (1982.).


                              - 6 -


          p ᪮ ᫥ ﭨ p p襭 
25000 ᥬ (1980.).
          p p襭 7000 祫  p ⮩稢 
 樠 痢 (1979.).



                2.4. ᯮ짮 窨 "ᠫ" 
                      祭 ४権

    㤥 ࠧ  ᯮᮡ 祭 ४権:
        1) ᨢ;
        2) ⨢.
     ࢮ 砥 ᮢ㯭  ४権 ।⥫-
      ० ""  ०-
 "ன "  "樨". ਬ,  ⠡. 11.1
 .࣠  ⢮ ᮢ 饣 ࠪ, ࠢ-
  襭 襣 ஥:   訬 ﬨ,
ᬥ, ⤮,    ६ ⢫  ﭭ 
 .. ⮪ ⠪ ᮢ⮢:     ४樨
। ࠧ    ⮬ ᭮,   ⭥ᥭ
   ⮩  ⥣ਨ. ⢥ ⠪  ४権 
  ⮬,  㦭 ᯥ樠 ᨫ   믮.,
 ᫨  ४樨  믮, १ 㤥 ⪮६-
 (᪮쪮 ⪮ ).
    㣮 ᯮᮡ, ⨢,  ᮣ  "樮쭮--
쭮 ࠯", 㯮   .࣠:  ,
祬  室   ﭨ      ᤥ,  ⮡
  .    ந  ० "", 
짮⥫ ।⠢ ᯨ᮪ 㬥⮢ - 䠪஢,  ᫮-
 祭  १ (  祫  ⥣ 㤮-
⢮७  ࠫ ).     ந 
 ० "᫥", ६     "ਧ".
  "ࠬ"  ⮬ ⮡ࠦ  ਠ  ⢥-
⮢, ⠪  㦥 ࠭  ਠ .   "ந"
ࠧ ਠ ⢥⮢, ࠢ  ਥ   窨 -
 襭 筮 १ , ⠪   窨 ७ 㯭
  祫 .  , ਬ, ᫨ 祫   "-
⢥" ⢥⨫ " ।,     ",  
楫ᮮࠧ  筮  㯭 ᬮ ᢮ ਢ窨.
   -  祫 ᠬ 室  ࠢ 뢮, 祣
⢥  ࠢ 蠥.


                 2.5. 祣 ᯮ짮  "pᠫ",
                     ᮤp  "" ?

         p,  pp訫 p,易  祩 
᪨    ""  ⥯p pᯮ -
 p㬥⮬   樠쭮-宫᪮ ᯥp⭮ ⥬.


                                 - 7 -

          祣 p  p㬥?
         -p,  業 "⭮" p  
童 襣 p㤮 ⨢  ᥣ ⨢  楫.
         -p, ᯮ짮 p p  p  ᯥ樠-
⮢.
         -p,  ᫥   p-
   p p,  䠪p, p訥  ⠪
.
         -⢥p, ⠡ p  pp, 墠⨢ ⨢
pp, ᥫ p, , p.
         -,  p ᪨   
 p  ᮡ 稬 䠪p, p ⥬ p
pp "pᠫ":  p筨 䠪p, 誠  -
, ᫮ ᯮ짮, pp  誠 p 饩 
㤮⢮p.   pp  p  ⨥
 宫-ᯥp⮢, p  p  ⥫쭮
 ᯮ p, 㡫  ᯥ樠쭮 pp.
         


          2.6.쭥襥 ࠧ⨥  㣫㡫  ""

     ⬥祭   .࣠, ⢮ ⭮襭  ᥬ, 㤮-
⢮७ ࠡ⮩  宬 뢠  ।饥  ﭨ  
饥 ᠬ饭 祫.
    ⮬,   ⥫쭮 祭  䠪஢  -
 ᠬ⥫ 訥 . ਬ,  "⢮७-
 ࠡ⮩"    ஥ 筮  "":
    1)   ⢥ 誠 㤮⢮७   誠  -
 ࠤ権: "쬠  㤮⢮७", "㤮⢮७    ன
⥯ ","᫥ ࠧ஢","祭 ࠧ஢" (.࣠, .65);
    2)  ⢥ 䠪஢ ,   㤮⢮७ ࠡ⮩,
 : "ࠧࠧ  ᫮ 믮塞 ࠡ", "⭮襭
 㤭","⭮襭  㪮⢮","⭮襭  稭묨",
" १⮢ 㤠"," 㤠"," த-
  㦡" ..(.  .࣠,  3  " 
ࠡ ");
    3)  ⠡ 痢 ᪨  묨  ந
筮 ⮬,      " ": ⥬ ᮧ-
  ᫥饩 ᪮ ࠡ⪨ ⮪ ᮢ  -
筮 讣 ⨭ 㦠.
    ᫥ ⠪ 楤 ,   । 䠪஢,   
㤮⢮७ ࠡ⮩ ,   ᪮쪮  ᮬ : -
,  稭    䠪 " 㤠 " "ࠧࠧ
 ᫮ 믮塞 ࠡ", " த  㦡",
 騭    묨 䠪 ⭮襭 -
 쬨,   䠪 ࠡ⭮     (ᮡ-
  ᫮ ᪮ ⠡쭮 ࠭).
    ।   ᮬ 䠪,      ᭨
 ""  쬠 饣  "", 饣
㤮⢮७ ࠡ⮩.     易⥫쭮:  拉 砥
㤮   㯭      .
     筮   㯨 - 蠥 짮⥫ 窨
"ᠫ".   ⢥, ᪮ 楫 ࠡ  㫨-
஢ ⮫쪮 祫,   "ᠫ"   㪠   
 㬥⮬ , 騬  ⠢ 楫.


                                 - 8 -


                                pp 2
                   ⨪: p᪨ 롮p   

                       1. 筨 室 

         pp ᭮  p Lichtman A.J., Keilis-
Borok V.I., Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections
in USA, 1860-1980; role of integral social, economic and political
traits. 1981, Contribution N 3670, Division of Geological and
Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology.
           p 室 p᪨ 롮p  .
p p p  롮p   : ,  p -
 p, p  祭 p饣 p᪮ p,
 ,  p p諠 ᬥ p饩 p⨨. p p 
 ⠢ p᭨  12 pᮢ, pp  ﭨ
p  p p嫥, p饣 롮p, ⠪  p-
 ⮢  p   p⨩. 

                          :

1. 뫠  p p     p?
2. 稫  p p  50 p業⮢ ᮢ  p-
 롮p?
3.   ⥫쭠 ⨢ p쥩 p⨨   -
p?
4. 뫠  p쥧 p p 롮p   p饩
p⨨?
5.    p饩 p⨨ p⮬   롮p?
6.    롮p p ᯠ  pᨨ?
7.   p p  樮쭮 p  
ᥫ   p 祬 2.1%   (p ᪮p p
 p  1860  1960 .
8. p  p騩 p ⢥   -
쭮 ⨪?
9. 뫨  ⢥ 樠   p,  p-
 p 뫠  ?
10. 뫠  p p饩 p⨨   p쥧 訡-
  p㯭 ᪠?
11.    p饩 p⨨ 樮 p?
12.    樮 p⨨ 樮 p?

         p  ⠡ ᮤp p ⢥⮢
 ᯥp (,  p ᯥp 㯠 ⨢ -
p 㪠  㡫樨)   p p᭨.

                                                    1  
                      
         (    1%  *)
                                                                         
                  
                 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12
  1864                       
  1868                          
  1872                         
* 1880                        


                               - 9 -  


* 1888                     
  1900                        
  1904                        
  1908                        
  1916                       
  1924                          
  1928                       
  1936                          
  1940                           
  1944                          
  1948                          
  1956                       
  1964                      
  1972                         


                                                  2  
                      
           (    1%,  *)

                    
                 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12
  1860                         
  1876                         
* 1884                         
  1892                         
  1896                         
  1912                          
  1920                        
  1932                          
  1952                         
* 1960                        
* 1968                           
  1976                         
  1980                          


               2.   ᯫ ᯥp⭮ ⥬

         窠 "pᠫ"  p p  ⠡ 
     p p⮪,    p⮢  -
᪮ p⪨ (p⮢  ᮮ⭮襭 ⥫  
p⥫ ⢥⮢    pᮢ   p 室
p᪨ 롮p. 
          pᬠp pp ᯥp⭮ ⥬ ( "롮p") 
p 祭 ⥬ p  ᪮쪮 ⠯. 砫  p-
 "p" ᫥  p p, p饣 p 
 p᭨, p p쭮 pp⭮  祭 ᫮-
 p⭮⥩ ( ⮤   襭 ᮢ)  
  ⠭ 祭 p  室 롮p p.
⥬  p "᫥" p⮪p   p 


                               - 10 -  


⠡.  ᫥ ⮣ ᭮  p "p"  p "-
  p⮪" p砫 (p,  p) 祭
᫮ p⭮⥩  ⥫묨 祭ﬨ, ᫥묨
"pᠫ"   p⮪, p饬 p  室
p᪨ 롮p    ᫥ 120 .
         p, pᯮ ⠪ ᯥp⭮ ⥬,   
p᪠ 室 p p᪨ 롮p.
         ᫨    ⠪   - pp ᯥp ⥬
   pp ᫥ 롮p.  p -   ⥬
p᪠  ⮭!


                              pp 3
               ⨪: p᪨ 롮p  p

        1.  , ᫨ ⨪      㤥?

        㬥, ᪨ 室  ⮣, 
 ᪨ . ⮬ ᯮ짮  "롮p"
 p᪠ 室 롮p  p  1991  뫮 
pp⭮: -p, p᪠ ⨪ p-  - 
"⠬" p㣨 ᫮,  ᪨, ⠪  樠쭮--
᪨.  ⪮ppp    p᪨ ᫮ -
 - 롮p- p!
         ⮩ 裡 pᥭ 室, ᭮  業 
p⨭   p, 쬠     業-
 ᯥ 祭  誮. 魮 室: ⠢
p᭨   p   p⥭   p-
, p 㦭 , p᢮    ⢮
,  ᨬ  p ⮣   ⢠ p-
⥭. ⥬ 㬬p      p⥭⮢.
⥭樠 ⥫ ⠥ p訩 襥 ᫮
.
         室 ᯮ짮 ., p ⮬ 
p,    , 祩 p  㡫  -
 "p "  13.11.91.  p  p᭨ -
 ᫥騥  ⢠ p⥭⮢: p, ﭨ
p, ,  p⥫쭮, p 
 .., ᥣ 20 , 業  4- 쭮 ⥬ ( 0
 3).
         p᭨  ⠢ ᭮  "p" - 
ᯥp⭮ 業  쭮 ⥬ p⨭ ⮢ 
p p.
         p   ⠡ p⨭  ᫥-
騩 :
                                                     3
                 p        - 39 
                 ﭥ      - 38 
                p 孮᪨       - 38 
                ᫠ p     - 36 
                 p᪨  - 25 
                p p       - 22 
                p 祭      - 10 


                              - 11 -

   
              2. ᪮쪮 㤠筠 ᯥp⭠ ⥬ "p"?

p᭮ p  p  ⮣ ᮢ  
 p⥭⮢ (p % ᮢ,     -
):
                                                   4
                 ࠢ        - 61,59%
                ᫠ ୮    -  23,27%
                 ﭥ      -  4,49%
                p p       -  4,17%
                p 孮᪨       -  1,74%
                 p᪨  -  0,57%
                p 祭      -  ᢮ p,
                                          롮p.

   ᯮ⠢ ⠡ 1.3  1.4, p ⢥p 
⭮襭 .p㪠.    ⢥p訬   ⭮-
襭 p 祭.  ᠥ ⠫ p⥭⮢, -
⢥p ᮪ p⨭ .p  ᮢp襭 p  
p᪠ p⨭ .ﭥ  .孮᪮.
         祬 p稭 ⠪ p쥧 p客? ᫨ ᫮         
 p᭨  㤮⢮p⥫  ⮬ ,  , 
p樯,   p ⮢, 室 -
饬 p, ⮣ p쥧 p⥭ ᫥ pᮢ  
ꥪ⨢ 祭 業: . p⠢ ⢥,
᢮,   p㬥p, . ,  pp
뫮  p p p p ᫮ ᥫ -  ⮬ 
砥 ᮢ p  ⮣ ᮢ   .
          쭥襬  "p"   p 
業 蠭ᮢ  ⮢  p - p㬥,
 ⮬ ᤥ  砭.
