By JAY BOOKMAN, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Sept 29, 2002
[email protected]
The official story on Iraq has never made sense. The connection that the Bush
administration has tried to draw between Iraq and al-Qaida has always seemed
contrived and artificial. In fact, it was hard to believe that smart people
in the Bush administration would start a major war based on such flimsy evidence.
The pieces just didn't fit. Something else had to be going on; something was
missing.
In recent days, those missing pieces have finally begun to fall into place.
As it turns out, this is not really about Iraq. It is not about weapons of mass
destruction, or terrorism, or Saddam, or U.N. resolutions.
This war, should it come, is intended to mark the official emergence of the
United States as a full-fledged global empire, seizing sole responsibility and
authority as planetary policeman. It would be the culmination of a plan 10 years
or more in the making, carried out by those who believe the United States must
seize the opportunity for global domination, even if it means becoming the "American
imperialists" that our enemies always claimed we were.
Once that is understood, other mysteries solve themselves. For example, why
does the administration seem unconcerned about an exit strategy from Iraq once
Saddam is toppled?
Because we won't be leaving. Having conquered Iraq, the United States will create
permanent military bases in that country from which to dominate the Middle East,
including neighboring Iran.
In an interview Friday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld brushed aside that
suggestion, noting that the United States does not covet other nations' territory.
That may be true, but 57 years after World War II ended, we still have major
bases in Germany and Japan. We will do the same in Iraq.
And why has the administration dismissed the option of containing and deterring
Iraq, as we had the Soviet Union for 45 years? Because even if it worked, containment
and deterrence would not allow the expansion of American power. Besides, they
are beneath us as an empire. Rome did not stoop to containment; it conquered.
And so should we.
Among the architects of this would-be American Empire are a group of brilliant
and powerful people who now hold key positions in the Bush administration: They
envision the creation and enforcement of what they call a worldwide "Pax
Americana," or American peace. But so far, the American people have not
appreciated the true extent of that ambition.
Part of it's laid out in the National Security Strategy, a document in which
each administration outlines its approach to defending the country. The Bush
administration plan, released Sept. 20, marks a significant departure from previous
approaches, a change that it attributes largely to the attacks of Sept. 11.
To address the terrorism threat, the president's report lays out a newly aggressive
military and foreign policy, embracing pre-emptive attack against perceived
enemies. It speaks in blunt terms of what it calls "American internationalism,"
of ignoring international opinion if that suits U.S. interests. "The best
defense is a good offense," the document asserts.
It dismisses deterrence as a Cold War relic and instead talks of "convincing
or compelling states to accept their sovereign responsibilities."
In essence, it lays out a plan for permanent U.S. military and economic domination
of every region on the globe, unfettered by international treaty or concern.
And to make that plan a reality, it envisions a stark expansion of our global
military presence.
"The United States will require bases and stations within and beyond Western
Europe and Northeast Asia," the document warns, "as well as temporary
access arrangements for the long-distance deployment of U.S. troops."
The report's repeated references to terrorism are misleading, however, because
the approach of the new National Security Strategy was clearly not inspired
by the events of Sept. 11. They can be found in much the same language in a
report issued in September 2000 by the Project for the New American Century,
a group of conservative interventionists outraged by the thought that the United
States might be forfeiting its chance at a global empire.
"At no time in history has the international security order been as conducive
to American interests and ideals," the report said. stated two years ago.
"The challenge of this coming century is to preserve and enhance this 'American
peace.' "
Familiar themes
Overall, that 2000 report reads like a blueprint for current Bush defense policy.
Most of what it advocates, the Bush administration has tried to accomplish.
For example, the project report urged the repudiation of the anti-ballistic
missile treaty and a commitment to a global missile defense system. The administration
has taken that course.
It recommended that to project sufficient power worldwide to enforce Pax Americana,
the United States would have to increase defense spending from 3 percent of
gross domestic product to as much as 3.8 percent. For next year, the Bush administration
has requested a defense budget of $379 billion, almost exactly 3.8 percent of
GDP.
It advocates the "transformation" of the U.S. military to meet its
expanded obligations, including the cancellation of such outmoded defense programs
as the Crusader artillery system. That's exactly the message being preached
by Rumsfeld and others.
It urges the development of small nuclear warheads "required in targeting
the very deep, underground hardened bunkers that are being built by many of
our potential adversaries." This year the GOP-led U.S. House gave the Pentagon
the green light to develop such a weapon, called the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator,
while the Senate has so far balked.
That close tracking of recommendation with current policy is hardly surprising,
given the current positions of the people who contributed to the 2000 report.
Paul Wolfowitz is now deputy defense secretary. John Bolton is undersecretary
of state. Stephen Cambone is head of the Pentagon's Office of Program, Analysis
and Evaluation. Eliot Cohen and Devon Cross are members of the Defense Policy
Board, which advises Rumsfeld. I. Lewis Libby is chief of staff to Vice President
Dick Cheney. Dov Zakheim is comptroller for the Defense Department.
'Constabulary duties'
Because they were still just private citizens in 2000, the authors of the project
report could be more frank and less diplomatic than they were in drafting the
National Security Strategy. Back in 2000, they clearly identified Iran, Iraq
and North Korea as primary short-term targets, well before President Bush tagged
them as the Axis of Evil. In their report, they criticize the fact that in war
planning against North Korea and Iraq, "past Pentagon wargames have given
little or no consideration to the force requirements necessary not only to defeat
an attack but to remove these regimes from power."
To preserve the Pax Americana, the report says U.S. forces will be required
to perform "constabulary duties" -- the United States acting as policeman
of the world -- and says that such actions "demand American political leadership
rather than that of the United Nations."
To meet those responsibilities, and to ensure that no country dares to challenge
the United States, the report advocates a much larger military presence spread
over more of the globe, in addition to the roughly 130 nations in which U.S.
troops are already deployed.
More specifically, they argue that we need permanent military bases in the Middle
East, in Southeast Europe, in Latin America and in Southeast Asia, where no
such bases now exist. That helps to explain another of the mysteries of our
post-Sept. 11 reaction, in which the Bush administration rushed to install U.S.
troops in Georgia and the Philippines, as well as our eagerness to send military
advisers to assist in the civil war in Colombia.
The 2000 report directly acknowledges its debt to a still earlier document,
drafted in 1992 by the Defense Department. That document had also envisioned
the United States as a colossus astride the world, imposing its will and keeping
world peace through military and economic power. When leaked in final draft
form, however, the proposal drew so much criticism that it was hastily withdrawn
and repudiated by the first President Bush.
Effect on allies
The defense secretary in 1992 was Richard Cheney; the document was drafted by
Wolfowitz, who at the time was defense undersecretary for policy.
The potential implications of a Pax Americana are immense.
One is the effect on our allies. Once we assert the unilateral right to act
as the world's policeman, our allies will quickly recede into the background.
Eventually, we will be forced to spend American wealth and American blood protecting
the peace while other nations redirect their wealth to such things as health
care for their citizenry.
Donald Kagan, a professor of classical Greek history at Yale and an influential
advocate of a more aggressive foreign policy -- he served as co-chairman of
the 2000 New Century project -- acknowledges that likelihood.
"If [our allies] want a free ride, and they probably will, we can't stop
that," he says. But he also argues that the United States, given its unique
position, has no choice but to act anyway.
"You saw the movie 'High Noon'? he asks. "We're Gary Cooper."
Accepting the Cooper role would be an historic change in who we are as a nation,
and in how we operate in the international arena. Candidate Bush certainly did
not campaign on such a change. It is not something that he or others have dared
to discuss honestly with the American people. To the contrary, in his foreign
policy debate with Al Gore, Bush pointedly advocated a more humble foreign policy,
a position calculated to appeal to voters leery of military intervention.
For the same reason, Kagan and others shy away from terms such as empire, understanding
its connotations. But they also argue that it would be naive and dangerous to
reject the role that history has thrust upon us. Kagan, for example, willingly
embraces the idea that the United States would establish permanent military
bases in a post-war Iraq.
"I think that's highly possible," he says. "We will probably
need a major concentration of forces in the Middle East over a long period of
time. That will come at a price, but think of the price of not having it. When
we have economic problems, it's been caused by disruptions in our oil supply.
If we have a force in Iraq, there will be no disruption in oil supplies."
Costly global commitment
Rumsfeld and Kagan believe that a successful war against Iraq will produce other
benefits, such as serving an object lesson for nations such as Iran and Syria.
Rumsfeld, as befits his sensitive position, puts it rather gently. If a regime
change were to take place in Iraq, other nations pursuing weapons of mass destruction
"would get the message that having them . . . is attracting attention that
is not favorable and is not helpful," he says.
Kagan is more blunt. "People worry a lot about how the Arab street is going
to react," he notes. "Well, I see that the Arab street has gotten
very, very quiet since we started blowing things up."
The cost of such a global commitment would be enormous. In 2000, we spent $281
billion on our military, which was more than the next 11 nations combined. By
2003, our expenditures will have risen to $378 billion. In other words, the
increase in our defense budget from 1999-2003 will be more than the total amount
spent annually by China, our next largest competitor.
The lure of empire is ancient and powerful, and over the millennia it has driven
men to commit terrible crimes on its behalf. But with the end of the Cold War
and the disappearance of the Soviet Union, a global empire was essentially laid
at the feet of the United States. To the chagrin of some, we did not seize it
at the time, in large part because the American people have never been comfortable
with themselves as a New Rome.
Now, more than a decade later, the events of Sept. 11 have given those advocates
of empire a new opportunity to press their case with a new president. So in
debating whether to invade Iraq, we are really debating the role that the United
States will play in the years and decades to come.
Are peace and security best achieved by seeking strong alliances and international
consensus, led by the United States? Or is it necessary to take a more unilateral
approach, accepting and enhancing the global dominance that, according to some,
history has thrust upon us?
If we do decide to seize empire, we should make that decision knowingly, as
a democracy. The price of maintaining an empire is always high. Kagan and others
argue that the price of rejecting it would be higher still.
That's what this is about.
© 2002 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution